Access to food improves with new harvests underway

• With the arrival of green sorghum, and millet and maize harvests in October in the rainfed and agro-pastoral zones, most households are facing minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). However, some localities in the southeast remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) due to production shortfalls in the Djéri crop and biomass production deficits (Figure 1). In addition, poor households in the peri-urban areas of Nouakchott and Nouadhibou remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) due to limited employment opportunities, heavy dependence on markets, and high food prices. 
• Mauritania continues to host large numbers of Malian refugees: in July 2023, 85,942 refugees were registered by the UNHCR in and around the Mbera camp in the southeast of the country. These refugees are heavily dependent on humanitarian aid. During previous reports, WFP expressed fears that distributions would be interrupted in October if additional funds were not obtained. However, more recent interim updates from the WFP have confirmed that new funding will maintain distributions at constant levels until 2024. As a result, the population remains in Stress! (IPC Phase 2!).
• The pastoral situation is generally good in the southern border strip with Mali and in the wilayas of Guidimakha and Gorgol, as well as in the northern part of Tagant and Trarza (Figure 2). By contrast, there is little or no grazing in some parts of the central, northern, and eastern parts of the country. Numerous cases of bushfires have also been reported in Guidimaka and Hodh El Chargui (Bassiknou), reducing the forage potential of these areas. This situation, combined with the high concentration of livestock and overgrazing, will lead to early internal transhumance. 
• Markets for basic foodstuffs are well supplied with imported products, although prices remain high compared with the five-year average. On the other hand, supplies of local products (for example, sorghum and millet) in the markets are generally below normal levels. Prices for these products, currently at record seasonal levels, will decline in November, before beginning an upward trend in December 2023 and continuing until May 2024. In some livestock markets, the supply of sheep and goats is relatively high, due to typical destocking by breeders. The large quantities of sheep and goats in these markets have led to lower prices. In other markets, however, prices remained stable and the terms of trade were generally in favor of breeders.

The month of October is marked by the cessation of rainfall throughout the country, and the start of rainfed crop harvests, as well as the preparation of areas for the off-season in the valley and agropastoral zones. The progress of the season in the main zones (rainfed cultivation zone and southern agropastoral zone) is favorable and likely to lead to near-average rainfed cereal production. The filling level of dams and lowlands is also favorable for off-season activities, particularly in Trarza and south-western Brakna, which augurs well for the off-season harvests between January and March. At the national level, preliminary forecasts point to total agricultural production of dry cereals (sorghum, millet, maize, wheat) near to the five-year average of 85,488 tonnes, but below last year's figure of 137,373 tonnes. 

Thanks to generally average breeding conditions, particularly in the central and western regions, livestock production will be average from October through January, with a seasonal decline from April onwards as the pastoral lean season starts. However, rainfall deficits in the southeast have led to a reduction in biomass, which is already reflected in reduced livestock concentrations in the southeast and westward movements of cattle in the agropastoral zone in search of better pastures (Figure 1, Figure 2). This early internal transhumance is most notable in areas with high biomass deficits, notably in the Moughataas of Kankossa and Kiffa in the Wilaya of Assaba; Ould Yengé in Guidimakha; Kobenni, Tamcheket, Aïoun, and Tintane in the Wilaya of Hodh El Gharbi.

Access to income-generating activities in most areas of the country will be normal for the November to May period, with a few exceptions. In the southeast, the early migration of livestock is likely to reduce opportunities for pastoral work earlier than usual. Continued limited seasonal employment opportunities in urban areas, as well as insecurity in Mali, will also reduce the resources in kind and cash sent by migrants. In addition, the demand for daily labor is expected to remain low due to the sluggish economy. In the peri-urban areas of Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, and Zouérate, which depend solely on markets for their food and basic needs, employment opportunities will remain limited while prices remain above the five-year average.

Prices for traditional cereals (millet, sorghum and maize) are typically higher in the August-September period than in the June-July period in most markets. In Gorgol, for example, sorghum prices are up +30 percent, and in Brakna, they are up +23 percent on average. However, on border markets supplied by Malian and Senegalese flows, price declines of up to 33 percent were recorded, particularly in Hodh El Chargui, according to field observations. The availability of local produce on markets will increase as harvesting becomes more widespread in agricultural areas. Grain flows from Mali and Senegal, expected to intensify from November onwards, will also boost domestic grain availability and encourage the start of a seasonal downward trend in local produce prices. From December 2023 onwards, they will begin an upward trend until May 2024.

For imported products, prices remained stable overall during the lean months up to September, although remaining above the five-year average: sugar was +42 percent, pasta was +41 percent, milk powder was +25 percent, wheat was +18 percent, and oil was +18 percent above the five-year average. Market supplies will be sufficient throughout the country until May 2024, thanks to regular and sufficient imports. Although prices have shown signs of stabilization in recent months, they are expected to remain above the five-year average throughout the projection period. Mauritania depends on imports for around 70 percent of its annual requirements, and persistently high prices will therefore continue to limit household access to food (Figure 3). Livestock prices will also remain above average until April/May, thanks to the usual rise in demand for the end-of-year festivities and Ramadan in April.