Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected amid massive refugee influx

• FEWS NET estimates the population in need of humanitarian food assistance will peak between 250,000 and 500,000 people between June and September. Populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to include poor farming and agropastoral households in the south-central and southwestern regions, which experienced severe rainfall deficits during the last agricultural season. These households faced atypically early stock depletion and livestock migration. The southeastern area of Hodh El Chargui is of high concern given the additional pressure exerted by the arrival of thousands of Malian refugees in recent months. This region is expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September. 
• Some poor and very poor households in Nouakchott's peri-urban areas are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between June and September, when food prices reach their seasonal peak. These households face high staple food prices and very limited income-earning opportunities, reducing their access to food. 
• The arrival of the rains from mid-June onwards will begin to improve pasture and water availability and mark the end of the lean season for pastoral households. Livestock conditions and prices will improve, resulting in favorable terms of trade for pastoralists and improving their access to food. 
• From October to January, most households should have access to food and income from their crops and livestock, leading to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, intermittent instances of atypically dry conditions around the onset of the season, followed by longer episodes towards the end of the season, are expected to cause localized decreases in crop yields and lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes among some households. Refugee and host populations in the southeast are also likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).  

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The following links provide further information: 

• Last remote monitoring report in Mauritania, February 2024
• FEWS NET scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of IPC and IPC-compatible analyses
• FEWS NET's approach to analyzing humanitarian food assistance

Agriculture, agropastoralism, and pastoralism are the main livelihoods for around half of Mauritania's population, while the other half work mainly in the informal labor sector in urban areas. Production of staple cereals – sorghum, millet, rice, and maize – utilizes diverse cropping systems (rainfed, irrigated, and flood-recession), but remains highly vulnerable to climatic shocks such as prolonged droughts, floods, and bush fires, which have long been a key factor in acute food insecurity. 

While overall cereal production has improved over the years due to measures taken by the State to increase rice-growing areas and make quality inputs available, it covers only around a third of national food requirements, resulting in heavy dependence on imports. This import dependence renders the country vulnerable to global economic shocks and is another key factor contributing to acute food insecurity in the country, driving very high food prices and poor economic opportunities, which particularly affect poor households in peri-urban areas. 

In addition to climatic and economic shocks, Mauritania has hosted over 200,000 Malian refugees since 2012, mainly in the southeastern regions. The number of arrivals has risen significantly since August 2023 following an increase in violence perpetrated by various armed groups in Mali. With the main Mbera camp already nearly full, new arrivals are living among communities outside the camp, putting pressure on limited food and income sources.

Insecurity in Mali also affects seasonal livestock movements and prevents cross-border transhumance, in addition to driving seasonal conflicts between farmers and herders. Typically, in June, the pastoral lean season reaches its peak just before the onset of the rains. Livestock are concentrated in grazing areas in the south, often in greater concentrations and with a high risk of conflict over increasingly scarce resources. The rains, which generally fall between mid-June and September, regenerate pastures and water sources, improve livestock health, and consequently improve household access to the main sources of food and income from livestock products. For farming households, the rains mark the start of the agricultural lean season, which ends with the green harvest in September and the main season harvest from October to January.

National

• The influx of Malian refugees into Mauritania continues, with a total of 107,937 people registered in the Mbéra camp and 11,135 refugees outside the camp. However, the number of people arriving has decreased: in May, 1,744 people arrived in the camp and 7,594 people arrived outside the camp, compared to 3,377 and 27,123 in April, respectively. 
• Tense relations persist between Mali and Mauritania around their common border, with troop movements on both sides disrupting trade flows and transhumance movements between the two countries, particularly in the Hodh El Chargui region.
• There is a grazing deficit in agropastoral areas, particularly in the southeast but also parts of the central-southern region, as a result of the pressure exerted by livestock and the numerous cases of bush fires recorded in the region (Figure 2).
• Livestock migration to Mali has ceased due to heightened insecurity in recent months, driving a shift to strategic national pastoral zones. This has led to an atypical concentration of herds in these zones, which has prematurely degraded pastoral conditions.

Willaya of Hodh El Chargui 

• The intensification of insecurity in the areas of the country bordering Mali continues to provoke an influx of refugees in the willaya of Hodh El Chargui, particularly in the Moughataa of Bassikounou and Adel Bagrou. 
• The host communities that receive and support refugees are faced with the deterioration of their local economy and pressure on their natural resources. Atypical grazing deficits have been recorded in the pastoral areas of Bousta, Oumouavnadeich, and Adel Bagrou.

Humanitarian food assistance

• To cope with the impact of the refugee influx in the Hodh El Chargui region, a Response Plan for Malian refugees in Mauritania has been developed. This plan targets 240,000 people (refugees and members of the host community) in the "food security" sector, with funding estimated at 25 million USD, 45 percent of which has already been secured. As part of the implementation of a National Strategic Plan for Food Security (2024-2028), in May 2024 the Mauritanian government and the WFP signed a 417 million USD collaboration mechanism aimed at achieving food security and better nutrition by 2030. Under the terms of the agreement, the WFP will, among other things, support Mauritania's capacity to respond to crises and strengthen resilience to impacts. 
• In collaboration with the Commissariat à la Sécurité Alimentaire (CSA) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the WFP will provide a comprehensive package of humanitarian aid to refugees in the M'bera camp and outside the camp in targeted areas. Households most in need receive unconditional monthly assistance in cash and in-kind distributions. In the Mbéra camp, 50 percent of the people registered are cared for by national social services. In May, the WFP provided cash assistance to 71,694 people (including 39,217 women). In addition, the WFP provided specialized food to treat moderate acute malnutrition in 564 children aged between 6 and 59 months (including 287 girls), and 281 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls.

National assumptions 

• Forecasts indicate a normal to early onset of the rainy season across most of the country and a normal end to the season; however, short dry spells in rainfall are expected to occur early in the season, followed by longer dry spells towards the end of the season, which will likely lead to a localized reduction in crop yields.
• Average to good rainfall throughout the country suggests good agricultural production prospects through January. Not only should agricultural production in the wet season (diéri) be higher than last year, it should also be equal to or higher than the five-year average. The forecasted rain will also ensure availability of pasture and water for livestock throughout the country for the current agropastoral season. 
• Sources of income will be normal due to typical agricultural activities and jobs (especially for poor households) until December/January. In the agropastoral and pastoral zones, the availability of jobs related to animal care will be relatively high, enabling households to achieve typical income levels.
• The upward trend in prices will continue throughout the lean season (July to August) in almost all parts of the country. Not only are staple food prices likely to remain above the five-year average, but they are also set to continue their upward trend until the beginning of September (the start of the harvest period).

Sub-national assumptions for Hodh El Chargui 

• Tensions between Mauritania and Mali may ease, but the influx of Malian refugees will continue throughout the projection period.
• Rainfall is expected to be average to good, improving conditions for livestock breeding and agricultural production. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• According to the WFP's strategic plan for Mauritania, the WFP will continue to support refugees until they are integrated into the country's social services and economy or can return to Mali. As part of its programming for the lean season, the WFP plans to provide unconditional financial assistance to the neediest households until September in areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the harmonized framework. Although the exact number of beneficiaries has not been communicated, it is expected that assistance will continue uninterrupted, particularly for refugees inside and outside the camp in Hodh El Chargui. 
• Based on past trends showing that refugees in Mauritania continue to receive assistance, it is expected that those registered in the camp will continue to receive assistance throughout the projection period. For refugees living outside the camp, assistance is expected to be highest during the lean season approaching September, before declining in the post-harvest period ; however, there is uncertainty due to the absence of detailed plans for this assistance.

In the Hodh El Chargui willaya, Malian refugee populations, as well as host communities who have exhausted their stocks and are faced with the deterioration of grazing and surface water points, will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between July and September 2024. 

Between October 2024 and January 2025, harvests and improved pasture will improve food consumption. However, the refugee population will continue to pressure local livelihoods and the economy. Poor households, while managing to meet their food needs, will not be able to afford non-food expenditures without engaging in coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In addition, some of the poorest households, lacking assets and dependent on aid, are likely to continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the post-harvest period.

In agropastoral, rainfed, and valley areas, poor households will continue to face the depletion of their food stocks and the deterioration of purchasing power between July and September 2024. Most households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly the poorest households and those in localized areas of deficit production, whose stocks from the last cropping season were depleted atypically early. 

Between October 2024 and January 2025, the expected favorable harvests will enable household stocks to be replenished, significantly improving food consumption and protecting the livelihoods of poor households and ensuring Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. For pastoral households, the prospect of good rainfall will also ensure availability of pasture and water and encourage better animal production, particularly dairy production. The regeneration of pastoral resources will improve body condition and livestock prices, providing above-average income. However, some households affected by localized periods of drought and/or flooding along rivers, particularly in the Senegal River Valley, are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

In peri-urban areas, some households among the poor and very poor will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to high staple food prices, limited economic opportunities, and below-average purchasing power. However, the area-level classification will likely remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

Hodh El Chargui 

Worsening or stagnating tension at the Mali-Mauritania border 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: This will have a further impact on trade and livestock movements across the border, and lead to a potentially larger influx of refugees into Mauritania. This will lead to an increase in the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as well as a likely extension of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the projection period.