Forage deficits lead to early livestock migration

• In December, most households in agropastoral and agricultural areas are facing minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), thanks to the diéri harvest. However, some poor households remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2). These include poor households in the valley, who are more dependent on the flood recession and hot off-season cereal harvests, which take place in March and June. Poor households in parts of the south-east of the country, where low rainfall has led to a shortfall in agricultural production and early internal livestock migration, will also be in Stress (IPC Phase 2), as will among poor households in peri-urban areas who are heavily dependent on markets and face high prices and limited employment opportunities. The pastoral lean season, which will be earlier than usual, will be marked by an atypical increase in the proportion of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the southeast through May.
• According to the UNHCR, as of October 31, 2023, the number of Malian refugees in the country is 104,324, of whom 86,586 are in the Mbéra camp. The number who have arrived since the beginning of 2023 and the end of October is 562, compared with 11,123 who arrived in 2022. Although more recent figures are not available, there are reports of an increase in refugee arrivals since the start of the MINUSMA withdrawal, renewed clashes between Touareg fighters from the Cadre Stratégique Permanent (CSP) and Malian armed forces, and the imposition of several blockades by the CSP. These refugees, for the most part, are heavily dependent on humanitarian aid - in view of the continuing influx, the EU has increased humanitarian funding by 2.6 million Euro. This population in the camp will remain in Stress! (IPC Phase 2!) throughout the projection period.
• The supply of imported products to markets is regular and adequate, and prices overall remain stable, albeit high, compared with the previous month. In livestock markets, the availability of animals is relatively high, and the livestock body conditions are generally good. The large market supply of animals is quite typical for this time of year, when livestock farmers are generally selling in order to obtain supplies of agricultural produce, which is driving down livestock prices. On the Nouakchott market, the average sheep, which was worth 4,000 MRU last month, is selling for between 3,700 and 3,800 MRU, and on the Boghé and Kaédi markets, the 2-year-old bull calf, which cost 16,000 MRU last month, lost 15 to 17 percent of its value in December.

The period from December to May, which is characterized by a dry-cold period followed by a dry-warm period, will be marked by the large migration of able-bodied people to the big cities in search of income to buy food and goods. It is also the peak period for livestock sales (January-March) and for additional income-generating activities, notably petty trade, artisanal labor, opportunities for local laborers to work in the fields, maintaining rice plots, and so on.  Sale of bush items, in particular leaves and grasses, will also be practiced. However, in the southeast, the early migration of animals is likely to reduce opportunities for pastoral work earlier than usual. Continued limited seasonal employment opportunities in urban areas, as well as insecurity in Mali, will also reduce the resources in kind and cash sent by migrants. In addition, the low demand for daily labor due to the sluggish economy will make it difficult to satisfy rising demand. In the peri-urban areas of Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, and Zouérate, which depend solely on markets for their food and basic needs, employment opportunities will remain low, while prices will remain above the five-year average.

Market supplies will be adequate throughout the country until May 2024, thanks to regular and sufficient supply of imports. The volume of wheat imports will rise sharply, replacing traditional cereals (millet, sorghum) whose stocks will dwindle over the period, particularly in the central and eastern agropastoral zone, the eastern and central rainfed zone, and the oasis zone. In addition, the volume of imports of traditional cereals from Mali will be reduced, with the risk of CSP blocking the main roads in northern Mali.

From February to May, certain localities in the rainfed and agro-pastoral zone, which have recorded a deficit in agricultural and forage production, will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period. However, with the measures taken by the government to guarantee the regular supply and operation of solidarity stores, they will be able to obtain foodstuffs at a lower cost. In addition, an increasing number of pastoral households in the southeast will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with the earlier than normal start to the lean season. However, poor outcomes will be mitigated by improvements in livestock prices which will remain above average until April/May, due to demand for Ramadan in April. The terms of trade will be in favor of livestock farmers, which will improve their access to markets. Poor households in peri-urban areas of major cities will also remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2).

In the valley area, where flood recession cereal production is expected to increase by 86 percent compared with the average for the last five years, the food situation of poor households will improve, with most in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) after the harvest in March-April.