A resumption of community-transmitted COVID-19 cases in the country

• The negative impacts of floods and Rift Valley fever, reduced remittances from migrants, and localized crop losses due to pests keep livelihoods under pressure, particularly in the wilayas of Gorgol, Brakna, and Tagant where the nutritional status is already a cause for concern. Poor households in these areas will be exposed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity until May.

• The economic slowdown resulting from the pandemic could also continue to have a negative impact on the incomes and purchasing power of the urban poor, especially those in the informal sector who rely on daily earnings. Their livelihoods will remain under pressure throughout the period. 

• Despite the availability of above-average pastoral resources favoring a typical lean season, the resurgence of COVID-19 and the reported outbreaks of the Rift Valley fever could lead migratory herds’ usual destination countries (Mali and Senegal) to strengthen border surveillance to limit entry. Between March and June, livestock may concentrate in the southern areas and lead to more pressure on the available resources.

• There is an average supply of basic foodstuffs to the markets, and the decrease in demand favors stable or even lower prices. Good prospects for dry season production could help strengthen the supply to the markets and allow for average seasonal price fluctuations. However, the decrease in imports particularly affects wheat stocks, leading to a slight increase in its price. Similarly, regional disruptions led to stock shortages last month for fruits and vegetables from Morocco. 

The agropastoral season was marked by a normal to early onset of rains and a normal to early end with normal to excess seasonal totals in 89 percent of the rain gauge stations compared to the 1981 to 2010 normal. The rainfed crops experienced good vegetative development and were able to complete their cycles in the wilayas of Hodh Chargui, Guidimagha, Gorgol, and the southern part of Hodh Gharbi. However, floods caused losses of sown and resown areas in the Aleg and Zighlane moughadaa in Brakna, as well as in the rainy area of Hodh Charghi. In addition, typical infestations and attacks by grasshoppers, rodents, and granivorous birds have negatively impacted rice and vegetable crop yields in both Hodh regions, Brakna, Trarza, and along the Senegal River.

Nevertheless, good rainfall distribution, the 45 percent government-subsidized input support, and an estimated 43 percent increase in irrigated crop development have favored above-average agricultural production in the country. The data forecast prepared by agricultural services indicate respective 24 percent and 36 percent production increases compared to the past season and the five-year average.

At the end of the rains in October, the filling level of surface water points (ponds, dams, wells) was satisfactory throughout the agropastoral area with good biomass availability, except for pockets of deficit recorded in Brakna and in the northern parts of both Hodh regions. This could encourage the typical departures of migratory herds. However, the Rift Valley fever caused the deaths of 138 head of livestock and infected 75 people, including 25 deaths in the wilayas of Tagant, Trarza, Brakna, and Assaba between September 4 and November 7. The Tagant wilaya was the most affected with 38 people infected, mainly in the localities of Tidjikja and Moudjeria, which impacts livestock movements because of the quarantine imposed by veterinary services. In addition, with the COVID-19 resurgence, it is likely that the migratory herds’ usual destination countries (Mali and Senegal) will strengthen border surveillance, which will limit entry into these countries, as was the case during the past lean season. Livestock could therefore concentrate in the southern areas and put more pressure on the available resources. 

There is an average supply of basic foodstuffs to the markets. Prices are stable for rice, oil, sugar, pasta, and tea compared to last year. On the other hand, wheat prices increased by 15 percent linked to a 9.9 percent decrease in the volume of food imports during the third quarter compared to the quantity imported in the previous quarter (National Office of Statistics [ONS], Quarterly Foreign Trade Report). In November, the temporary closure of the Morocco border following the conflict in the Western Sahara territory caused a fruit and vegetable shortage and higher prices on the markets, particularly in the capital city, Nouakchott. For local products, millet prices in December are stable compared to the same period last year in the markets of Ould Yengé and Adel Bagrou, and down 25 percent in Silibaby. Prices for small ruminants are also stable in the same markets, with, in particular, increases on the Ould Yengé market of 50 percent for sheep and 33 percent for goats. On the whole, the terms of trade for livestock and cereals are in favor of the breeders.

Private production allows most households to maintain acceptable food consumption according to the results of the October food security survey (WFP/Committee on World Food Security [CFS], Food Security Monitoring System [FSMS]). Good off-season production prospects could maintain this situation until May. However, livelihoods and consumption are under pressure, particularly in the wilayas of Gorgol, Brakna, and Tagant, and the nutritional status is of concern in these regions. The negative impacts of floods and Rift Valley fever, reduced remittances from migrants, and localized crop losses due to pests expose poor households in these areas to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity until May. The COVID-19 resurgence could restrict seasonal migration departures and lead to a lower demand for labor in urban centers. This continues to negatively affect incomes of the poor, particularly those in the agropastoral (MR07) and rainfed (MR09) areas, where 75 percent of income usually comes from self-employment and migration remittances.

In urban centers, where 16.7 percent of the population lives below the poverty line (ONS, Poverty Profile, 2014), the economic slowdown could also continue to negatively impact incomes and purchasing power, particularly for the poor in the informal sector who depend on daily earnings. They remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity throughout the period.