Access to food remains limited despite improved agricultural employment opportunities

• The lean season continues to progress, marked by low availability of household stocks, high commodity prices, and a deterioration in poor households' access to food. Despite a slight improvement in the income of poor households due to increasing agricultural labor opportunities during the rainy season, most households in the agropastoral, rainfed, and peri-urban areas of Nouakchott and Nouadhibou are in Stress (IPC Phase 2) with some households remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Starting in September, the increasing availability of green harvests will contribute to improving food security outcomes in agropastoral and agricultural areas.  
• Based on historical trends, El Niño years are not correlated with notable anomalies in rainfall performance in Mauritania. However, there are increasing rainfall deficits of up to 50 to 70 percent of the long-term average in the southeast of the country (Hodh El Chargui) as of the end of August. These deficits are affecting the level of surface water points, the regeneration of pasture, and likely to have a negative impact on agricultural production. 
• In the south-central and south-western regions, cumulative rainfall was average to above average, contributing to better growing conditions for crops and pastures. With this good pace of the agricultural season, the demand for agricultural labor has increased and daily wages have risen by about 25 to 50 percent in most of the rainfed cultivation zone and the southern agropastoral zone. This opportunity is favorable to poor households who will benefit from additional seasonal income and improved access to market purchases, albeit weakened by the seasonal rise in food prices.
• Market supplies are satisfactory in August. Compared to July, the prices of imported foodstuffs remained stable. On the other hand, the prices of local agricultural products have risen due to the strong demand for seeds. The price of a 50 kg bag of rice, which fluctuated between 1,100 and 1,250 Mauritanian Ouguiya (MRU) in previous months, rose to 1,530 MRU at the beginning of this month. This trend is set to continue until the end of the month if the rainy season continues as expected and farmers are tempted to increase their plantings. According to the National Agency for Statistics, Demographic, and Economic Analysis (ANSADE) in June, food inflation was +3.5 percent. Year-on-year food inflation trends fell from 12 percent in March to 5 percent in June, although average annual food inflation for the period June 2022 to June 2023 remained at 14 percent.

With the exception of the western part of the valley zone (southern Trarza and southwestern Brakna), where poor households may have income paid in kind and in cash for the work of harvesting rice in the off-season, in the other livelihood zones, during the lean season, households are essentially dependent on the market for food. In rainfed farming areas (southern and central agropastoral areas, southeastern valley zone, mainly in Gorgol and Guidimakha), the early onset of the rainy season and the good spatio-temporal distribution of rains have stimulated demand for agricultural labor. With the good prospects for the season, the dependence on the market will diminish from September onwards, as some households will be able to start consuming their green produce from early crops.

Markets are generally well supplied with imported products, but prices remain seasonally high. Demand for labor has increased with the start of the season, leading to a rise in labor wages from 200 MRU in 2022 to 250-300 MRU this year. However, this seasonal rise in food prices is outpacing wage increases and eroding household purchasing power.

Thanks to good rainfall, pastoral conditions are normalizing over most of the country, although internal transhumance is intensifying in search of green pastures, particularly towards the south and southwest of the country. In the extreme southeast of the country, where pastureland is poorly developed and watering points are low, pastoral conditions are expected to deteriorate earlier than normal.

Supplies to livestock markets slowed down sharply after the various religious holidays and are not expected to return to typical levels until the end of October. In the main livestock markets of Nouakchott, Boghé, and Kaédi, the price of a medium-sized sheep fell by 10-15 percent compared with the June holiday period. In rural markets, on the other hand, low supply led to an increase of around 5 to 10 percent in the price of a medium-sized sheep.

Overall, the good pace of the cropping season, particularly in the valley, the main agricultural production zone, points to good production prospects, despite unfavorable conditions in the southeast that could result in below-average localized production. If this positive trend continues, households in the rain-fed zone and those in the southwestern agropastoral zone will be able to harvest early crops, which were sown in June and early July. The good level of filling of dams and lowlands will also enable flood-recession areas to be exploited from October onwards, boosting national food supplies between the end of January and February 2024. National agricultural production is expected to be average to above-average, helping to improve food consumption and protect the livelihoods of poor households who may experience minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) during the period from October 2023 to January 2024. However, poor households in the peri-urban areas of Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and Zouérate, who depend on markets for their food and whose employment opportunities will remain low, will experience Stress (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period.