The depletion of stocks and elevated prices maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes

• In April, the depletion of household own stocks is resulting in increased dependence on markets for food. At the same time, limited employment opportunities and rising prices is limiting their access to markets, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. As the lean season progresses, some households will face Crisis phase food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) in rural areas, particularly in the agropastoral and rainfed zones.

• In urban areas, some poor urban households are expected to be face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at the height of the June-August lean season. This is due to the combination of the planned end by May 2023 of the food assistance in the form of cash transfers that has been undertaken by the government and its partners since early February and the persistence of high food prices that will continue to limit poor households' access to food.

• Markets are generally well supplied with imported products, although prices remain high. Demand is high not only because of Ramadan, but also because household stocks have been depleted, contributing to higher prices as the agricultural lean season approaches. 

• The current pastoral lean season is marked by an intensification of typical transhumance movements of animals towards the south of the country and towards Senegal, due to the good availability of pasture and water resources. However, this growing presence increases the risk of conflicts between farmers and herders.

Poor households in the rainfed zone, who finished harvesting in November and have exhausted their household stocks, are now increasingly relying on markets, loans, aid and donations for their food. As for those in the valley and agropastoral zones who finished harvesting near the end of March, their harvests will meet their food needs through May. In most rural areas, demand for foodstuffs is up sharply compared to March, not only because of Ramadan, but also because households’ stocks are running low, increasing dependence on the markets for food needs. Vegetable supply was tight during the fasting month due to the elevated demand during Ramadan, but also to the rising vegetable prices in Morocco, which had a negative impact on prices in Mauritania due to its heavy reliance on Moroccan vegetable imports.   

In urban areas, the “Ramadan Boutiques”, set up by the government to sell basic foodstuffs to low-income families at 30 to 40 percent below market prices, in addition to the food assistance in the form of cash transfers undertaken by the government and its partners since early February to support 20,500 families for 4 months in Nouakchott's 3 wilayas, have helped to alleviate food consumption deficits. However, with cash transfers scheduled to end in May 2023, poor households, which depend exclusively on the market for their food, will be confronted with seasonal price rises for staple and certain foods, and some households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season.              

While the period from May to June offers some limited opportunities for income generation for the poorest households in agricultural work in the agropastoral zone, in dams and flood-recession areas, as well as in the pastoral herding, the depletion of household stocks and the seasonal rise in food prices characteristic of the lean season will result in widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with some poor households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June to August. This is also the pastoral lean season, marked by an intensification of transhumance movements of animals towards southern Gorgol, the valley and the rain-fed cultivation zones, Guidimakha and Senegal, with a high risk of conflict between farmers and transhumant herders. Livestock prices are on the rise, however, due to rising demand for cattle for Tabaski.