Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions while food prices remain high

• The early depletion of food stocks at the household level, decreasing purchasing power due to a lack of day-laboring opportunities in rural areas, and atypical increase in staple food prices are likely to severely limit poor households’ access to food and income, meaning they will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Between April and September, some households are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• Markets, a typical food source for households during this period, will remain sufficiently supplied but characterized by an atypical increase in staple food prices, particularly imports, compared to last year and the five-year average.

• Despite lower levels of grazing in the country, livestock migration to Mali and Senegal is helping to maintain normal body conditions of livestock. High demand linked to religious holidays, buyer demand, and the physical condition of livestock is leading to higher livestock prices than last year.

Transhumance and livestock markets: Internal livestock flows are beginning to improve in the run-up to Ramadan (taking place in early May) but are still below average. Flows out of the country are declining due to the presence of livestock in cattle-seeking countries (Mali and Senegal), in which traders can deal directly. In addition, due to the difficult pastoral conditions and scarce availability of fodder and water, the physical condition of livestock is average.

Markets are beginning to function better ahead of the religious holidays and demand from Mali and Senegal is improving in areas within the country to meet livestock needs. Livestock supply levels are beginning to improve but are still below normal. Prices will remain higher than for the same period in 2021 when they were already well above the five-year average.

Markets and staple food prices: Throughout the country, markets are the main source of food for most households, especially poor households, except for those in dam areas, low-lying areas of the Senegal River Valley, and oasis areas, which still have very small stores of off-season crops. Internal and external flows of products remain steady, with imports arriving from North Africa (Morocco, Algeria) to meet household demand during the month of Ramadan. Imports of dried cereals (millet, sorghum, and maize) from Senegal and Mali are also continuing as normal, as are exports to bordering West African countries such as Senegal, and especially Mali (dairy products, oil, fish).

Staple food prices are still rising compared to last year and the five-year average, often by as much as 100 percent for some products such as vegetable oil (Figure 1). This atypically sharp rise in food prices is due in particular to the shortfall in agricultural production this year, high prices on the international market, and rising shipping costs. Moreover, as the main source of wheat imports (more than 60 percent), the crisis in Ukraine has negatively impacted the price of imported food products, with prices higher for wheat, sugar, vegetable oil, and milk powder. To mitigate the possible effects of the Ukraine crisis, the Mauritanian government is scaling up the implementation of its program to support those most vulnerable through opening Emel shops (which sell State-subsidized products, including oil, milk powder, wheat, pasta, and sugar) in Nouakchott and the interior of the country, making staple foods more accessible to poor households. With the support of economic operators that have come together to alleviate the adverse impacts of the Ukraine crisis, the government is also turning to other strategic partners such as Argentina to ensure the availability of stocks and to regulate its supplies of staple foods (mainly wheat). According to the authorities, there are stocks available to meet domestic needs for six months, which will likely stabilize the price of wheat. For other products, however, including vegetable oil, sugar, and imported rice, the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the price increases, which is severely limiting poor households’ ability to access adequate food.

The increase in staple food prices in the markets is expected to continue until the next harvest in October.

Household income: In urban and surrounding areas, the revival of the informal sector (the main source of income for poor households) remains slow, while the migration of the rural labor force to already saturated urban centers continues atypically, increasing the supply of labor. However, increased trade between Mali and Mauritania has slightly improved access to day-laboring opportunities for poor households in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou. As a result of increased trade between Mauritania and Mali in this period, poor and very poor households in port areas and container loading and unloading zones (in Nouakchott and Nouadhibou) will benefit from an increased demand for day laboring. This will significantly improve and provide regular incomes in order for households to meet their staple food needs.

Food situation: The food situation is currently under pressure due to the combined effects of rising prices, declining agricultural output and deteriorating pastoral conditions. Between June and September, the normal onset of the rainy season will lead to the recovery of pastoral areas and the availability of resources, thus improving the physical conditions of livestock and livestock market prices. The availability of milk and meat will in turn improve food consumption conditions and the livelihoods of livestock farming households.

Between April and May, the atypical increase in staple food prices will not enable adequate access to sufficient food, especially in rural areas. The decline in job opportunities due to the general economic slowdown, along with the decrease in transfers will also contribute to poor households’ difficulties in accessing food. These situations will make it difficult for poor households to meet their food needs in April and May, meaning they will be acutely Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Despite the improved availability of fodder and water for livestock in pastoral environments between June and September, the depletion of food stocks at the household level, decline in purchasing power due to the lack of day-laboring opportunities in agropastoral (MR07), rainfed cultivation (MR09) and Senegal River Valley (MR08) areas, and atypical increase in staple food prices due to the worsening international situation given the Ukraine crisis, are all likely to limit access to food and income for poor households. As a result, these households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).