The food security situation is improving in the east and center of the country but deteriorating in the west

Rain-fed crops with long and multiple breaks, reduced irrigated areas due to difficulty in accessing agricultural credit, and a dry walo, lead to a sharp decline in cereal production in Trarza, Gorgol, and Tagant. In the rest of the country average agricultural production is likely.

Unfavorable seasonal pastoral conditions in the western pastoral areas have caused an early transhumance which is already reflected in a pastoral overload in the refuge zones of Gorgol, Guidimakha, and southern Assaba and Hodhs. 

Markets are generally well supplied with imported foods (rice, wheat, tea, sugar, oil, etc.) with stable prices, but poor households have difficulty accessing them regularly and sufficiently because their seasonal incomes, usually derived from agricultural labor, are falling sharply. They are resorting to seasonal food borrowing and atypical animal sales that accentuate the shortfalls in protecting their livelihoods. 

Situations of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are likely in the west of the country between October 2017 and March 2018. In the center and east, the levels of food security are expected to be in line with the same trends as those of an average year with a shift towards Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.