High inflation continues to limit poor households' access to basic needs

Cereal crops are in the harvesting stages and under favorable conditions in all production areas. For off-season crops, dams and water reservoirs are at optimal levels, supporting good agricultural production prospects and seasonal employment opportunities during this period. According to the latest estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture, cereal production is favorable, with a probability of an increase of 16 percent more than last year; this will strengthen the rebuilding of stocks in markets and households.

In pastoral and agro-pastoral strip areas, proper distribution and availability of pastoral resources support satisfactory livestock body conditions. As a result, biomass production is estimated at average to above average in these areas. In addition, with the improvement of pastoral conditions, animal prices are up compared to average, especially for sheep. However, despite recent improvements, the sheep/wheat terms of trade remain unfavorable to pastoralists due to substantially high prices of imported food products. Nonetheless, the availability of cereals from agricultural production compensates for the difference.

The supply of cereals and other food products is still dependent on imports from the international market and some cross-border flows from Senegal. However, restrictions on dry grain exports from Mali continue to limit supply flows to markets in southern and urban areas. As a result, food prices are still atypically high. In fact, in Nouakchott, the prices of dry cereals, particularly wheat, increased by 70 percent compared to the five-year average. At the international level, the increase in fuel prices observed since July 2022 and the poor road infrastructure contributes to the rise in the prices of these products.

Households across the country are currently spending more on food, forgoing their basic non-food needs. Overall, food insecurity outcomes remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), particularly among populations located in the northern and western communes of Nouakchott and northeast of the agro-pastoral zone.