Agricultural production deficits will drive the food insecurity situation

Due to poor rainfall totals and poorly distributed rainfall, rainfed crops have failed in most of the agropastoral and rainfed areas. The agricultural production scenarios established by the Ministry of Agriculture establish a production forecast fluctuating between a minimum of 271,000 T and a maximum of 351,000 T. In comparison, in 2016 the forecasts were of 281,216 T.

Irregular rainfall has also strongly affected pastoral conditions, and atypical seasonal transhumance is accelerating the process of plant degradation in available pasture pockets. Breeders have begun destocking to buy their food and food for their animals (feed cakes and wheat). Livestock markets are well supplied due to atypical seasonal sales caused by pasture deficits and food purchases.

The likely decline in agricultural production mainly affects poor households who, in addition to their consumption, derive significant monetary and food incomes through agricultural work and related post-harvest activities. The result is an extension of the lean season and a constant reliance on the purchase of food that can only be achieved by putting a heavy strain on their livelihoods.

Food availability, however, remains assured through commercial, private, and government imports through the regular import and export company (SONIMEX), the revitalization of Mali's cross-border traditional grain flows and small-scale rainfed production (especially in the rainfed area). With the exception of wheat and rice, food prices have remained relatively stable for several months.

Due to crop failure in most agricultural areas, it is likely that there are already high levels of global acute malnutrition (GAM) (> 15 percent) in the western areas of the agropastoral zone where some households are already experiencing a prolonged Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situation, that may deteriorate further between January and May and may evolve into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation, while some very poor households may be in an Emergency (IPC Phase 4) situation.