Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Shortfalls in agricultural and agropastoral production (2021/2022 agricultural season and flood recession crops) have led to a higher than normal and early dependence on markets for households trying to meet their food and nutritional needs as the lean season approaches. In addition, flood recession harvests from January to March, which were below average last year, will barely cover one to two months of consumption in the Senegal River Valley and in areas close to rainfed and agropastoral areas.

• Prices of imported and local staple food products are still rising compared to last year and the five-year average due to poor harvests, strong seasonal demand, rising world prices, and high transportation costs. The start of the lean season will put additional pressure on prices. In contrast, in port areas, staple food supply in local markets is average and sometimes above average due to increased flow from neighboring countries, which boosts local household income.

• Rainfall deficits from the 2021/2022 agricultural season have caused an early pastoral lean season, an almost total depletion of fodder potential and surface water resources for livestock feed, and early cross-border transhumance towards the south (Mali and Senegal). Livestock market demand and supply are below normal and income-generating, agropastoral activities are limited for transhumant households.

• The continued decline in income and sharp rise in food prices are steadily reducing the capacity of poor and very poor households to access food in rural and peri-urban areas. A large proportion of these households continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity starting in April/May to September 2022, particularly in rainfed, agropastoral, and pastoral farming areas. However, during the peak of the lean season from April to June, many households in these livelihood zones are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, although this will apply to less than 20 percent of the population in these areas.