Average productions of flood recessional crops support diminished food insecurity

• The harvest of late-season and flood recessional crops is currently finished. Despite the strong pressure of grain-eating birds and the shift in the crop calendar following the delayed rainy season, cereal production is above 2015 levels. This favorable situation, reinforced by good pastoral conditions and regular market functioning, means that Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes will remain until September.

• Pasturelands remain satisfactory in all livelihood zones, but the difficulties of water access, caused by localized rainfall deficits, have begun two months earlier than usual (March instead of May) in the north of the country. This is reorienting transhumance migrations toward the center of the country and the northern part of the agro-pastoral zone. Consequently, pasture deficits in these areas are probable starting in April.

• Livelihood protection deficits due to sales, losses, and debts during the two previous deficit years are creating Stress (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for certain agro-pastoral households in Adrar, Inchiri, Gorgol, Tagant, and Brakna until September. Only the oasis areas of these regions will return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in July following the date harvest.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016.