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During the ongoing lean season, poor and very poor households are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least September 2022. From October to January 2023, local products and products derived from agropastoral activities, such as milk and meat, will be available and will make it possible to replenish household food stocks. However, with continued food price increases and low purchasing power, poor and very poor households will most likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Market supply of imported food remains sufficient. In contrast, supplies of local products remain below average due to the early depletion of stocks from the last year’s harvest and declines in cross-border trade flows. The seasonal increase in demand during the ongoing lean season is more pronounced due to a greater need to replenish stocks. Prices, as a result, continue to rise atypically compared to last year and five-year average. In June 2022, in Ould Yenge market, prices for a liter of cooking oil as well as a kilogram of wheat increased by 41 percent and 33 percent, respectively, from the same time last year. This is making market foods difficult to access for poor and very poor households.
In addition to internal supply and demand anomalies, food inflation is also driven by rising global commodity prices and transport costs accentuated by the negative impacts of the crisis in Ukraine. Fuel prices, which have been stable for more than a decade, recorded a sharp increase in mid-July 2022. Fuel prices increased by about 30 percent, in line with global price trends and the reduction of government subsidies.
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.