Food Security Outlook

Near-average conditions, with certain areas requiring continued monitoring

October 2013 to March 2014
2013-Q4-1-1-MR-fr

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is expected in most of the country with this year’s generally average harvests and pastoral conditions, regular, adequate market supplies, effective assistance programs strengthening food access, and favorable terms of trade. However, certain areas will require continued monitoring.

  • The erratic rainfall and resulting poor crop growth and development of rainfed crops in western agropastoral areas created large shortfalls in rainfed cereal production and the incomes of poor households from farm labor. Thus, as of the end of November, this group of households will be facing Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) until the harvest of flood-recession crops in February.

  • As of January, the large shortfall in rainfed cereal production in northwestern rainfed farming areas (in central and northern Guidimakha and eastern Gorgol), the sole source of annual on-farm production by poor households, will create Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) for this group of households, which will be eased only by remittances of seasonal migration income beginning in March.

National Overview

Current situation

Progress of the rainy season: As anticipated, the rainy season ended in early October. While most rainfall gauging stations are showing above-average cumulative rainfall totals, many areas dependent on farming and pastoral activities suffered from a poor temporal distribution of rainfall.

Farming conditions: Current estimates put nationwide cereal production at or above average, with a few small pockets of production deficits. The last short-cycle crops were harvested at the end of September. Harvests of rainfed cereal crops in most parts of the country are barely a third of their average size, except in southeastern rainfed farming areas (in southern Hodh El Gharbi and Hodh Chargui) with more or less near-average harvests. Output from long-cycle crops, which normally account for approximately 30 percent of rainfed cereal production, is down by 50 to 70 percent, depending on the area. These crops, scheduled to be harvested at the end of October or the beginning of November, have just barely been able to fully mature and yields are poor. Farmers in southern agropastoral areas and eastern rainfed farming areas (in southern Assaba and Hodh El Gharbi and Hodh Chargui) are counting on late-season crops planted in August scheduled to be harvested in December/January, which are expected to produce an average harvest. These crops normally account for approximately 10 percent of rainfed crop production. The pick-up in rainfall activity in the month of September helped these crops recover, which are grown mainly in mixed farming systems in lowland areas. They are currently in the height growth stage, which is their normal stage of development at this time of year, and, at a minimum, farmers are expecting an average harvest.

Crop planting activities are underway in all flood-recession farming areas (walo areas, areas along the banks of the Senegal River and its tributaries, lowland areas, and dam areas), where floodwaters have been receding since the first dekad of October. The larger than usual tracts of viable farmland in all interested areas (southern oasis areas, agropastoral areas, and northern river valley areas) and the resolution of the problem of seed shortages (by government distributions of free supplies of seeds, purchases of seeds of flood-recession crops, or the use of other types of seeds) bode well for the successful farming of these areas. Harvests of flood-recession crops should be greater than average, provided grasshopper, stalk borer, and bird infestations can be contained.

In general, the size of the area planted in irrigated winter crops is even larger than last year, which set a ten-year record. The timely provision of farm credit, adherence to crop calendars, and government assistance for the purchasing of inputs should, logically, result in a visibly larger rice harvest this year figure. The stable desert locust situation is equally reassuring. The National Locust Control Center (CNLA) has strengthened its surveillance and treatment apparatus and is not expecting a deterioration in local conditions, barring unseasonable rains between November and January, which would promote ecosystems conducive to locust activity.

Pastoral conditions: Pasturelands in agropastoral areas, rainfed farming areas, and the river valley, which are all important livestock-raising and transhumant pastoral areas, are homogeneous but visibly sparser than usual due to the numerous long dry spells affecting pasture growth and development in agropastoral, rainfed farming, transhumant pastoral, and river valley areas. The only really lush, high-quality pastures are in central and southern Hodh Chargui (in Timbédra, Djigueni, and Néma Departments) and along the country’s border with Mali, and in southern Hodh El Gharbi (Kobenni and eastern Tintane Department). With the prevention or, at least, the strict containment of brush fires, this year’s well-below-average levels of biomass production in other parts of the country, which generally meets the needs of local and transhumant herds until the beginning of the rains in June, should still meet livestock needs until the start of next year’s lean season in pastoral areas (in April/May, depending on the area). Only in central and northern Guidimakha, northern and eastern Gorgol, southwestern Assaba, and northern Brakna could the magnitude of local pasture deficits force transhumant pastoralists to begin migrating to seasonal grazing areas earlier than usual (by February or March). There are also large pasture deficits in eastern and central transhumant pastoral areas, but the good pasturelands in southern transhumant pastoral areas (in Keur Macene and Rosso) and pasture resources from irrigated crops (rice straw) are a good complement, helping to cover most of the deficits in other pastoral areas. The good water availability in all areas of the country should continue at least until the beginning of the next lean season for pastoralists.

Seasonal income: Trends in seasonal income are average for the cropping season. Income levels are relatively better-than-average, except in the two areas of concern (western agropastoral areas and rainfed farming areas of northern Guidimakha). This can be attributed to the combined effects of the stabilization of daily wage rates at around 1500

MRO, in line with figures for the last four years and the rate in effect at the beginning of the season, and the greater employment opportunities afforded by the large areas to be planted in other types of crops (irrigated and rainfed lowland crops). These high levels of seasonal income should extend into March with the cultivation of flood-recession farming areas (controlled flooding, dam, and walo areas) belonging largely to middle-income and better-off households requiring a large on-farm workforce. Moreover, with farming activities timed to follow crop calendars, there will be a normal pattern of short-term seasonal labor migration, with the potential to generate average amounts of migration income.

Markets and prices: There are adequate market supplies in all parts of the country. In general, food prices are stable, in line with price trends at harvest time, though still 20 to 40 percent above the four-year average, and are generally higher than last year by only 11 percent or less. One area where prices have fluctuated, though, is Hodh El Gharbi, Hodh Chargui, and Adrar where speculation on the price of wheat has seen unit prices per kilogram range from 140 to 200 MRO. Coarse grain prices (prices for sorghum, maize, and pearl millet) are coming down in a seasonal fashion, driven by the combined effects of continuing exports of older inventories from Mali and recent harvests of short-cycle crops in both Mauritania and Mali. This downward trend in prices should accelerate with upcoming harvests of long-cycle crops and winter rice crops in late October and November. However, prices in farming areas with especially large shortfalls in rainfed crop production (Guidimakha and Gorgol) are 54 to 60 percent higher than in eastern areas, where the price of a kilogram of millet and sorghum ranges from 130 to 200 MRO.

In line with seasonal trends, livestock prices are steadily climbing with the improvement in pastoral conditions, holiday demand, and the limited recourse to market purchasing during the harvesting season. The localized drops in prices in western and central agropastoral areas are driven by unusual trade-related factors having to do with the absence of Senegalese and Malian buyers, who have set their sights on other markets. Prices will stay high in urban areas, where security and upkeep costs and daily charges force livestock traders to keep their prices high.

Repeated hikes in fuel prices (there were already five such price hikes this year) are generally followed by rises in the prices of imported food items not sold in Boutiques de Solidarité (government-subsidized shops). So far, the latest such hike in October (in which the price of a liter of diesel oil went from 384.2 to 386.7 MRO) has only affected the cost of inter-city public transportation service, which is up by 20 to 30 percent from September.

The assistance programs mounted by the government with support from the WFP and World Bank focused on replenishing and expanding the number of village-level food security stocks (SAVS) and government-subsidized Boutiques de Solidarité (BS) will continue through December. Charging prices 30 to 40 percent below formal market prices, these programs will serve as the main sources of supply for poor households with disposable income from farm labor and related activities between now and December.

Assumptions

The most likely nationwide food security scenario for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following general assumptions:

Food availability:

  • Good yields of late-season crops are expected to offset the nationwide production deficit from the first two rounds of harvests. Harvests of irrigated winter rice crops have also been underway in the river valley since the second week of September.
  • Poor households will have smaller than usual seasonal cereal stocks between October and January, except in the southwestern reaches of the river valley, where hot off-season rice crops were harvested in July/August, and in eastern rainfed farming areas producing average rainfed cereal harvests. Accordingly, these households will turn to local markets for their food supplies. They should have larger than average seasonal cereal stocks between February and March with the expected boost in flood-recession crop production.
  • There will be a regular, adequate flow of commercial food imports (rice, wheat, sugar, and oil). Distribution networks will be effective in meeting domestic demand in a timely fashion.
  • There will be no restrictions on cross-border trade in spite of expected crop production shortfalls in neighboring areas of Mali and Senegal.
  • Government assistance programs (SAVS and BS) mounted with the support of the World Bank will be strengthened and extended through December of this year.
  • There will be a sharp reduction in food supplies from out-of-area work in farming-related activities (threshing, transport, winnowing, and storage) or short-term seasonal migration to other crop-producing areas of the country or Mali between September and December due to this year’s poorer than usual farming conditions. Most Mauritanians engaged in short-term seasonal migration at this time of year are working in the fields of Malian farmers. However, these food supplies are expected to improve between January and February with harvests of late-season crops.
  • There will be adequate pasture availability between now and the beginning of next year’s lean season in pastoral areas (April or May, depending on the area).There will be no unusually early seasonal migratory movements by northern transhumant herds.

Market behavior and price trends:

  • There will be regular, adequate market supplies throughout the outlook period, with a normal flow of domestic and cross-border trade, in quantities which should meet domestic demand and demand in neighboring areas.
  • Coarse grain prices will gradually come down from their September levels (by at least 30 to 60 percent) between October and March, in line with normal seasonal trends.
  • Livestock prices are expected to continue to upward through December. In fact, high demand for the religious holidays should accelerate the normal seasonal rise in prices. With the large supplies on most urban markets, prices should begin coming down in January, in line with normal market trends.
  • Terms of trade will remain in favor of pastoral households, with the high levels of current trader inventories, ongoing assistance programs, and a regular flow of international and subregional trade expected to prevent any sharp rises in staple food prices.
  • There will be another seasonal hike in fuel prices between December and March by 10 percent, accentuating the small increase in early October. However, there is little likelihood of this having any major negative effect on the price of imported cereal.
  • Annual cereal production across the country should be near if not above-average, except in certain pockets of production deficit areas in northern Guidimakha, eastern and northern Gorgol, and Brakna. The existence of household food stocks, at least until March, should help sharply limit market purchasing, even by poor households.

Income:

  • There will be average levels of income from local employment, except in certain pockets of rainfed farming areas (in central and northern Guidimakha) and western agropastoral areas in northern and eastern Gorgol, northern Brakna, and western Assaba, where the scaling back of rainfed farming activities has affected household income from farm labor. These pockets, in fact, represent our two areas of concern.
  • Income from out-of-area work and short-term seasonal migration will be in line with the average, except in the aforementioned areas of concern, where the earlier than usual departure (two to three months before the beginning of April) and larger number of workers (two household members instead of one) are expected to boost this income by more than 30 percent.
  • There will be less income from work in pastoral activities throughout the outlook period in all parts of the country due to the current status of pastoral conditions. Barring future shocks (brush fires, mass migration by northern herds due to poor rainfall conditions during the cold season), herd movements will be limited and there should not be an unusually large need for pastoral labor liable to boost wages and income.
Most likely food security outcomes

With the more or less average pastoral and rainfed farming conditions in most parts of the country and the extension of assistance programs, FEWS NET is not expecting any negative strategies during the outlook period (from October 2013 through March 2014) in these areas. Any unusual periods of Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) will be brief and limited to localized areas. In the rest of the country, international and subregional imports, nationwide harvests which, even in the worst-case scenario, will be near-average, and government assistance programs will ensure regular, adequate food availability. Food access will be facilitated by average if not better-than-average levels of income, favorable terms of trade (for livestock to cereal), and assistance programs selling food products at prices 30 to 40 percent below formal market prices. There will be Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in all parts of the country between October and December. This will continue to be the case in most areas between January and March, except in western agropastoral areas and northwestern rainfed farming areas (in northern and central Guidimakha), where poor households will have difficulty maintaining regular, adequate food access between the end of this year and March of next year.

Areas of Concern

Rainfed farming areas

These areas include the northern reaches of Sélibaby Department and all of Ould Yengé Department, where approximately 75 percent of local farmers are poor and grow only one rainfed crop per year, which accounts for 35 percent of their annual food supply and whose sale generates 20 percent of their yearly income. Wages for farm labor between June and November account for another 20 percent of their income. Thus, they are extremely vulnerable to rainfall anomalies affecting their farming activities. Their main livelihood and coping strategy is short-term seasonal labor migration, which accounts for approximately 20 percent of their income and, to a large extent, gives them access to commercially marketed food products, since they are forced to purchase 38 percent of their food needs.

Current situation

The poor temporal distribution of rainfall affected yields of short-cycle crops. Harvested at the end of September, these crops, which normally account for 60 percent of local cereal production and meet household needs through March/April, will, at best, cover needs for the months of October and November. This year’s long-cycle crops (which normally account for 30 percent of crop production) represent only 12 percent of all rainfed crops. Farmers’ options were limited by seasonal conditions. Expecting a near-average end to the rainy season (in late September or early October), they set their sights on late-season crops which, unfortunately, will not develop normally due to the lack of any meaningful rainfall in October. The only crops making relatively normal progress were maize crops grown along the banks of rivers and streams and in certain depression areas, most of which are eaten green during the lean season and which account for 10 percent of crop production.

Though not as lush as usual, pasturelands are still meeting the current needs of local and transhumant herds. Seasonal milk availability is close to average, particularly from goats, the main type of livestock owned by poor households.

Good market supplies of imported foodstuffs are ensuring adequate food availability. There is a normal flow of cross-border trade with Mali and Senegal and existing assistance programs in these areas such as SAVS, BS, out-patient therapeutic feeding centers, and school lunch programs are functioning normally.

Food prices on formal markets are more or less stable owing to the subsidized sales programs charging 30 to 40 percent lower prices. Only the price of imported rice is up from the same time last year by 20 percent due to price increases by importers, justified by increases in their own purchase prices and shipping costs. Coarse grain prices have come down in line with normal seasonal trends (by 20 percent in the case of maize and 33 percent in the case of sorghum), but are still well above the four-year average.

The 50 to 60 percent reduction in their normal seasonal income (between July and September) generated largely by seasonal farming activities (harvests of short-cycle crops, transport services, processing, etc.) prevented poor households from stocking food supplies during the September and October harvests, whose on-farm production, at best, is able to cover their food needs for one month. Thus, they will need to look for seasonal coping strategies to get them through what is commonly referred to as the “mini” lean season, until the beginning of the external labor migration period. Nevertheless, proceeds from out-of-area work and external labor migration (between February and June of next year) are expected to fill the gap and boost their income to near-average levels during the lean season.

Livestock prices have been climbing, in line with normal seasonal trends. While, in general, this year’s prices are still high, driven by demand for Tabaski, they are unusually low in rainfed farming areas. The price of an average sheep on the Sélibaby market, for example, is 11 percent lower than in Adel Bagrou, in a major sheep-trading area. The price differential is even greater on the Ould Yengé market in northern Guidimakha, at 18.5 percent. In any event, the rising price of livestock is only helping middle-income and better-off households since, under current conditions, there is little demand for the cattle and goats of poor households, as most sacrifices for holidays involve sheep.

Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario described below for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following general assumptions:

  • Long-cycle crops will mature, but crop yields will be poorer than usual.
  • Late-season crops will mature normally and will be harvested in late December/early January, with average yields.
  • Pastoral conditions will meet the needs of local livestock and help sustain average if not above-average levels of milk production throughout the outlook period.
  • Prices for rainfed cereal crops will steadily decline between October and March, staying below figures for the same time last year (by 42 percent in the case of cowpeas, 64 percent in the case of rainfed sorghum, and 20 percent in the case of maize). This is a normal seasonal phenomenon fueled by the speculative behavior of traders, who deliberately reduce their purchase prices at harvest time and early in the post-harvest period to ensure that repayment terms for outstanding debts are in their favor.
  • The improvement in pastoral conditions has triggered a seasonal uptick in livestock prices. While this is a common phenomenon, the rate of price increases has been over-inflated by demand for the celebration of Tabaski. Once the holiday is over, the rate of increase should slow (to between 15 and 30 percent).
  • August prices for wheat were down by 21 percent from the same time last year, in line with the decline in demand for human and animal consumption. However, they will stay well above the five-year average (110

    MRO/kg).

  • There will be a smooth flow of cross-border trade with Senegal and Mali, with the anticipated slowdown in trade between the Kayes and Guidimakha regions expected to be offset by increased trade with other high-production areas of Mali.
  • There will be regular market supplies of the most widely consumed imported foodstuffs in this area (sorghum, maize, rice, wheat, sugar, tea, and oil). In spite of the latest hike in fuel prices, no increases in food prices are expected between now and the last harvests of late-season crops (in January).
  • Poor households with at least two months worth of food stocks will restrict their food purchases between now and January of next year. This limited demand will slow any rises in the price of locally grown cereal crops and, as an induced effect, in the price of imported cereal.
  • Poor households will have normal food access, strengthened by the low prices of government-subsidized shops (BS). For the time being, social assistance programs are scheduled to continue through December.
  • The below-average growing season will mean below-average incomes for poor households, with no improvement expected until March of next year, with the first remittances from short-term seasonal labor migration.
Most likely food security outcomes

Crops from ongoing harvests, good pastoral conditions, and income from farm labor will allow poor households to continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) through the month of December. The depletion of agriculture food supplies and reduction in in-kind wage income with the winding down of local farming activities between January and March will make it difficult to maintain regular, adequate food access. The intensification of short-term seasonal migration should help improve the situation, but households will not begin to realize these benefits until March. As a result, conditions in these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between January and March.

Western agropastoral areas

These areas lie in northern and eastern Gorgol, northern Brakna, and western Assaba. Approximately 60 percent of the population consists of poor farming-oriented agropastoralists currently feeling the effects of large shortfalls in their rainfed crop production. On average, these crops meet 30 percent of their food needs and proceeds from their sale account for 20 percent of their income. They purchase 35 percent of their food supplies between March and July, primarily with cash from short-term seasonal labor migration (which accounts for 40 percent of their yearly income) and in-kind loans (20 percent) from local traders requiring payment in-kind at harvest time, when repayment terms are in their favor.

Current situation

September harvests of rainfed crops were well below-average. At most, the seasonal cereal stocks of poor households will cover their cereal needs for one month, while these crops normally meet household needs for October and November. Flooding rates in flood-recession farming areas (lowland areas, dam areas, basin areas, etc.), the main sources of crop production, range from 80 to 100 percent. Crop-growing activities in these areas, which have just gotten underway, are demanding a larger than average workforce. Problems with access to seeds for the planting of these flood-recession crops have already been partially resolved by poor households, which are counting on using other types of seeds, if necessary, in order to plant the largest possible area in these crops.

Existing pastures, though somewhat sparser than usual, are meeting the current needs of local livestock. So far, there are no signs of an influx of livestock herds from outside the area in spite of the reported pasture deficit in eastern transhumant pastoral areas. With the large availability of surface water resources, livestock will have no need to travel to other areas and are in satisfactory physical condition. Urban demand is keeping livestock prices well above figures for previous average years and the five-year average.

Markets are well-stocked with coarse grains (rainfed sorghum from Mali and left-over on-farm inventories from neighboring areas with good harvests of flood-recession crops early this year) and substitute cereals (locally grown and imported rice and wheat). Cereal prices (prices for oil, sugar, and imported rice) are relatively stable and, in some cases (the case of wheat, rainfed sorghum, and maize prices), are down sharply from last year and from the four-year average.

The near-average levels of seasonal cash income early in the season are down sharply since September with the small areas ready for harvesting. However, farmwork has picked up considerably since the beginning of October in flood-recession farming areas, with daily wage rates at around 100 MRO/day.

Thus, poor households are currently living off milk supplies from their livestock herds, supplemented by staple foodstuffs purchased from village-level food security stocks (SAVS), government-subsidized shops (BS), and formal markets. Shortfalls in their seasonal rainfed cereal production, which normally accounts for most of their food intake, have been offset to some extent by the smooth operation of local markets and assistance programs and favorable household terms of trade.

Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario described below for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following general assumptions:

  • Middle-income and better-off households will ensure the planting of larger than average areas in flood-recession crops through the use of local labor.
  • There will be above-average levels of income from farm labor between November and December and from harvest-related activities (transport services, threshing, winnowing, etc.) in March of next year.
  • Milk availability will fluctuate in line with normal seasonal trends (increasing between July and November and gradually declining between December and June).
  • Pastoral conditions will limit herd movements between now and January.
  • In line with normal seasonal trends, seasonal demand for pastoral labor will decline between October and March due to prevailing pastoral conditions.
  • There will be regular, adequate market supplies of imported foodstuffs.
  • As was the case in 2011 and 2012, government assistance programs (SAVS and BS) will continue throughout the outlook period.
  • The locust situation will be contained and flood-recession crops will be protected. The National Locust Control Center has strengthened its treatment and surveillance apparatus and believes that the locust situation is currently and will remain under control, provided there is no more rain.
  • Coarse grain prices will come down between October and March. However, this normal seasonal decline in prices will be less pronounced than usual.
  • Livestock prices will continue to fall due to large supplies and low local demand. These prices should have been steadily rising since August, fueled by demand for the holiday season.
  • Even with September harvests of short-cycle crops, domestic trade is still limited, which is unusual. However, the flow of trade should pick up between October and February with harvests of long-cycle crops (in Mauritania and Mali).
  • Poor households, whose seasonal rainfed cereal production covered only the month of October, will continue to resort to market purchasing. At the very least, these crops normally meet their food needs through the end of November or the beginning of December.
  • There will be below-average pasture availability due to the effect of the poor temporal distribution of rainfall on new grass growth. However, it should still meet the needs of local and transhumant livestock herds through January of next year. Local pastoralists will head out to seasonal grazing areas earlier than usual.
  • In line with their usual practices, pastoralists in northern agropastoral areas and the northern reaches of the country are also expected to head to seasonal pastures in central and southern agropastoral areas.
  • Short-term seasonal labor migration will be delayed by continuing offers of on-farm employment into the month of March, generating 25 percent larger than average amounts of income.
Most likely food security outcomes

The positive effects of current pastoral conditions, the consumption of new crops from recent harvests, however poor they may be compared with the norm, and the smooth operation of assistance programs will allow poor households to continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between October and November. Shortfalls in earnings from farm labor (which, on average, represents 15 percent of their income) will be offset by the purchasing of food supplies from government-subsidized shops (BS) at 30 to 40 percent lower prices. However, poor households having already depleted their food stocks (after barely a month) will have difficulty maintaining regular, adequate food access between December and February, until the first remittances of migration income is sent home (which accounts for 40 percent of their yearly income) two months after the departure of migrant workers, at the earliest. As such, households will experience Stressed acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). These Stressed food security outcomes will be eased by harvests of flood-recession crops and seasonal migration income beginning in March, at which point they should, once again, experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

Events that Might Change the Outlook

 

Area

Event

Impact on food security conditions

Nationwide

 

Rise in the international market prices of substitute cereals (wheat and rice)

Sharp rise in food prices, limiting the food access of poor households

Long-term disruption in cross-border trade

Sharp rise in coarse grains prices and reversal of current trends in terms of trade

Spread of brush fires

Loss of current pastures and earlier than usual seasonal migration by transhumant pastoralists

Locust infestation

Damage to irrigated and flood-recession crops and pasture

Rainfed farming areas

Restriction of short-term seasonal labor migration to Mali

Loss or sharp decline in migration income from that country, which is the main destination for seasonal migrant workers

Disruption of travel by members of poor households to the Office du Niger irrigation district

Limited number of seasonal migrant workers and sharp decline in projected migration income

Suspension of Malian cereal exports

Unusual rise in the price of coarse grains, the main dietary staple for poor households

Influx of pastoralists from agropastoral areas, pressured by migration by northern pastoralists into these areas

Rapid deterioration in pastoral conditions, driving livestock into Mali

Western agropastoral areas

 

Failure of flood-recession crops due to pest infestations

Above-average losses of as much as 80 percent of projected harvests, which could put poor households in the throes of a Crisis (Phase 3, IPC 2.0) between March and July of next year

Rebound in demand for livestock in Mali and Senegal

Rise in livestock prices, boosting income from livestock sales and improving cereal access and access to other types of commercially marketed foods

 

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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