Food Security Outlook

Good seasonal conditions favor rural food security improvement

July 2013 to December 2013

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food availability is adequate country-wide, but poor farming households in the north and the southeast face difficulty in maintaining regular and sufficient access to food.  In the former case, this is due to two consecutive poor agropastoral seasons and, in the latter case, to the effects of the presence of 75,000 refugees, which has driven up food prices and decreased seasonal income. Households in these areas continue to face Stress levels of acute food security (IPC Phase 2).  Elsewhere in the country’s most densely populated areas, food security remains stable (Figure 1).

  • June rains appear consistent with seasonal forecasts made by ACMAD, the Regional Agrhymet Center, and the Mauritanian Weather Service (ONM) for average to above-average levels of rainfall, in line with the historical ten-year average. 

  • In the most likely scenario for July through December, good pastoral conditions and farming activities will provide average if not better-than-average levels of seasonal income and agropastoral production for poor households in all livelihood zones, resulting in Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between August and December (Figures 2 and 3).

  • The gradual restoration of civil security in the southeast is helping to increase short-term seasonal migration and cross-border trade, while reducing refugee inflows. Return migration by Malian refugees, who arrived in the country following the French military intervention, has been reported.

Summary

 

 

National Overview

Current situation

Seasonal progress: According to the National Weather Service rainfall outlook, yearly rainfall totals will be above-average across the southern and eastern parts of the country and on par with the average in the west and the north. This should translate to notable improvement in living conditions in current areas of concern (northwestern agropastoral zone, southeastern rainfed farming zone, and northern zones). The start of the rainy season in June was followed by sporadic rainfall and compared to the same time in 2012.  In comparison with the same time last year, a year of record rainfall, virtually all rainfall gauging stations show rainfall deficits. However, when compared to normal rainfall levels, current seasonal progress is not cause for alarm given fairly normal rainfall activity across the country, with above-normal levels of rainfall in farming areas along the Malian border, including the southeast rainfed agriculture zone.

Agricultural conditions: At this stage of the growing season, natural conditions for the pursuit of agricultural, pastoral, and eco-based activities are average and should improve so long as the rate of useful rainfall continues to galvanize farmers in rainfed farming areas. For the past few years, these farmers have been dry-planting crops beginning as of the end of May. The wet planting of short-cycle (70 days) and long-cycle crops (between 90 and 120 days) generally begins sometime mid and late July.

Sowing activities in agropastoral areas have not yet gotten underway due to hesitant rainfall, but farmers are encouraged by growing season conditions.  The return of a large part of the rural workforce engaged in short-term seasonal migration has strengthened the production capacity of farming households, who are expected to plant larger than average areas in crops. The announcement by the Minister of Rural Development regarding the implementation of an agricultural support program providing for the cultivation of 40,000 hectares of irrigated crops and 173,000 hectares of rainfed crops, expected to produce a 222,000 metric ton harvest and meet 37 percent of nationwide cereal needs (a 110% increase compared to 2012) makes this prospect more likely. However, poor access to plowing equipment (mainly in irrigated farming areas) and high-quality seeds could preclude the attainment of these targets since, even if the size of the area planted in crops is as large as expected, crop yields will be lower than anticipated given the large numbers of farmers resorting to the use of the most accessible, often poor quality seed. Without the support of the FAO this year, the government was barely able to extend its 400 metric ton annual seed assistance program (which meets only approximately 30 percent of needs for rainfed varieties of seeds). In comparison, approximately 1000 metric tons of seeds were distributed free-of-charge to farmers in rainfed farming areas last year with the assistance of the FAO, rounded out by additional government procurements. The large market supply of cereals (with the unloading of crops by Malian farmers) have prompted farmers to resort to the use of these crops as seeds. Rice farmers, bypassed by assistance programs, and whose crop calendars could be affected by shortages of farming equipment, are having even more difficulty gaining access to high-quality seeds. Like their fellow farmers engaged in rainfed agriculture, they are turning to paddy rice. This is raising doubts as to the likelihood of meeting the national production target, given lower crop yields expected from the use of these cereal crops as seeds.

In the northern and central reaches of the country (Adrar, Tagant, Assaba, central Hodh El Gharbi, and northern Hodh Echargui) the date harvest, in progress since the end of June, should provide poor households with a larger than usual supply of food and income through the end of August or the beginning of September owing to this year’s good output as a result of the technical training and supervision furnished as part of Project Oasis.

Pastoral conditions: Rainfall activity between June and the first half of July was too limited to help spur the large-scale growth of fresh pasture. As yet, there are no signs of return migration by transhumant herds and sedentary animals are in relatively good physical condition. However, conditions have been improving since the middle of July in the wake of heavy downpours (except in the north), which should help promote fresh pasture growth and better water access.

Seasonal income: Farming activities are starting back up across the country as the growing season gets underway, providing slightly above-average incomes for poor households (between 15,000 and 2,000 MRO/day). A shortage of plowing equipment and more extensive areas under preparation should drive a higher than usual demand for casual labor.  However, migration income is down, with many seasonal migrant workers having already returned home. Wages earned by local workers in the northern part of the country employed by mining and road construction companies are giving them regular food access on area markets.

Markets and prices: Staple food supply is generally adequate in markets country-wide. Flood-recession crop harvests in March, though  less than expected, were fairly close to average, except in the central reaches of the Senegal River Valley where the harvest of hot off-season rice crops in April/May (approximately 65,000 MT), like harvests in the western part of the country (southern Trarza), set a ten-year record. These off-season crops, along with regular imports and the restocking of assistance programs (village-level food security stocks and government-subsidized “boutiques de solidaríté”) between May and June, bolstered by a large influx of cereal from Mali, helped ensure adequate food availability in all parts of the country.

Staple food prices are generally down from the same time last year due to current good food availability and competition from assistance program structures. However, localized price hikes for certain commodities have been triggered by isolated events. The unit price of wheat, for example, (140 MRO/kg) has been stable since May in Nouakchott and on most rural markets, but is up by 6.6 percent in Bassikounou and Adel Bagrou.  This is unusual for this time of year, since wheat is a substitute cereal for poor households in these areas and is normally consumed only when distributed free of charge, during the lean season, or in the case of a large production shortfall. With Malian traders unloading their inventories, the supply of sorghum is so significant that its price (between 140 and 150 MRO/kg) is actually lower than that of wheat. In this case, household demand is not driving up the price of wheat; rather, demand is driven by refugee pastoral households living outside Mbera camp who are not served by food assistance programs.  Increasing prices for rainfed sorghum (Taghalit) on most markets in crop-producing areas is due to the need for seeds resulting from less seed assistance from the government than in a typical year. The most notable price increases are in areas farthest from the Malian border (the Aoujeft and Tintane markets). Aside from normal seasonal price increases, price inflation is low, with the usual speculation by traders for foods consumed during the month of Ramadan currently balanced by the Ramadan program instituted by the government and the Islamic Relief Foundation.

Livestock prices have been steadily rising since January of this year. The normal seasonal price increases in June and July were higher than usual this year due to demand from Malian cereal traders. Speculation regarding the upcoming religious holidays (Ramadan) heightened demand from livestock traders and encouraged pastoralists heartened by trends in seasonal conditions as they approached areas of Mali already covered with fresh pasture. Thus, the average price of a sheep was constantly fluctuating between March and June, mostly as a function of supplies of the main cereal of choice for household consumption and corresponding price trends. While this upward trend in livestock prices is a normal seasonal phenomenon, the difference in this case lies in the across-the-board increase in the prices of all types livestock while, normally, the trend is generally more in line with price increases for well-fattened animals and a stark decline in prices of less robust animals.

Assistance programs for Malian refugees appear to be working as planned. The government has also instituted special assistance programs in areas where the destructive effects of the lean season have worsened food insecurity (the north and southeast), including animal feed assistance through July (50 percent subsidized cost), the restocking and expansion of village-level food security stocks (SAVS) and government-subsidized boutiques de solidarité (BS) through December, and distributions of free food rations. Assistance for poor households in refugee receiving areas has been suspended pending completion of the latest biometric census.

There are no indications of any major deterioration in food security in rural areas of the country. With the exception of households in areas of concern (northwestern agropastoral areas, southeastern rainfed farming areas, and northern rural areas) still facing Stressed food security (IPC Phase 2) due to lack of sufficient resources for maintaining regular, adequate food access, in general, poor households are experiencing Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). Households are able to access well-supplied markets, earn income from short-term seasonal labor migration and farm labor, benefit from effective assistance programs, and increase purchasing power through favorable terms of trade for livestock/food. Overall, food security constraints normally imposed by the lean season have been mitigated by these factors.

Assumptions

The most likely nationwide food security scenario for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following general assumptions:

Food availability:

  • Poor and middle-income households in most livelihood zones will have no seasonal household cereal stocks between July and September. The exception is households in the southwestern reaches of the Senegal River Valley, which had the best hot off-season rice harvest in the last five years.
  • With harvests of rainfed crops and in-kind income from cropping activities, rural households will have normal to above-normal household stocks of cereal between August and December.
  • There will be an adequate volume of regular commercial food imports to meet demand, whose domestic distribution, though slowed by the rainy season, will be ensured.
  • The government will strengthen and extend the operation of village-level food security stocks (SAVS) and subsidized shops (Boutiques de Solidarité) through December of this year with assistance from the World Bank. FEWS NET does not anticipate any outside or special humanitarian assistance.
  • Staple food supply earned from outside employment in Mali in farming-related activities (threshing, transport, winnowing, and storage of crops) or short-term seasonal migration will increase between June and December compared with the first two quarters of the year. With the expected large expansion in the area planted in crops, these normal seasonal food supplies should be better than average.
  • According to the UNOCHA, the Mbera refugee camp is well supplied and equipped with basic infrastructure which, together with the large volume of assistance furnished by the humanitarian community is meeting most of the basic needs of the refugee population. There will be less need for assistance after the July elections in Mali as some Malian refugees begin returning to their homes.

Market behavior and price trends:

  • Market supply will continue to be regular and adequate, with a normal flow of domestic and cross-border trade that can meet local demand and demand from neighboring areas throughout the outlook period.
  • Cereal prices will move steadily downward between September and December. In general, with the beginning of the rains, Malian farmers respond to good seasonal indicators by destocking old crops at lower prices.
  • Livestock prices are expected to continue to climb between now and December. Normal seasonal price increases during this period will be bolstered by high demand for the religious holidays. In spite of increasing cereal costs, household terms of trade will remain favorable.
  • Fuel prices will increase seasonably by 10 percent between July and December similar to the 10 percent price hike reported between January and June, driving up staple food prices by 10 to 20 percent. Fuel price increases during the rainy season will invariably increase the cost of transportation.

Income:

  • Household income will be comparatively higher from farm labor in crop-producing areas between June and November compared with the norm. The expected good farming conditions should enable middle-income and better-off households to plant larger areas in crops, creating a larger demand for labor and increasing the amount of income generated by these farming activities.
  • A continuation of mining and road construction operations in the north will provide workers with regular wages.
  • Short-term seasonal migration to Mali will rebound and migrant remittances in the form of food and cash throughout the outlook period. However, the expected scale of farming activities could delay the departure of migrant workers.

Livelihood strategies:

  • With an average to above-average growing season, in general, there will be less reliance than usual by households across the country on loans of food and/or cash for buying food between July and September, with the lean season in all farming areas expected to be shortened by good harvests and high levels of wage income from farm labor.
  • Continuing livestock purchase by middle-income and better-off households, who have been buying animals since the beginning of the year, and by Malian farmers unloading their crops for this same purpose are expected to steadily increase prices. Poor households will also take advantage of their extra seasonal income to buy livestock.

2013/2014 growing season:

  • The rainy season will progress normally (starting at the end of June or the beginning of July and extending into October/November), producing above-average levels of rainfall.
  • Farming activities will provide average incomes and cereal harvests for poor households.
  • Pastoral conditions, which are still good in most parts of the country, will be further strengthened by the expected normal rainfall activity in all pastoral and farming areas between July and September. Pastoralists in northern and northwestern agropastoral areas will cease relying on the use of animal feed.
  • Poor households in all parts of the country will earn more income from farm labor between June and September, even in oasis areas where the involvement of members of poor households in construction work on the road between Adrar and Tagant has created a more regular alternative source of income to farm wages.
  • Farmers growing rainfed crops will have a timely supply of seeds in sufficient quantity, but whose unreliable quality could reduce crop yields. The access of rice farmers to farm credit and inputs will help produce a cereal harvest as good if not better than the 2012/2013 harvest. Based on the status of the growing season thus far, it is unlikely that the government’s 222,000 metric ton production target for this year will be met.

Assistance:

  • Humanitarian assistance needs for the country’s refugee population will be met between July and December of this year. The 75,000 refugees in the Mbera camp are currently being supported by the UNHCR and its partners.  However, assistance for native populations in refugee receiving areas will be reduced significantly.
Most likely food security outcomes

The revitalization of farming activities as of July will provide poor households with on-farm employment opportunities and a source of income ensuring them regular, adequate food access in government-subsidized shops (BS) and through village-level food security stocks (SAVS). The savings engendered by the improvement in pastoral conditions in the north and in northwestern agropastoral areas, eliminating expenditures on animal feed, could help bolster purchasing power pending the September harvest of short-cycle crops, which should normally meet food needs through November/December. This improvement should be further reinforced by the October harvest and income from farm labor in flood-recession farming areas between October and December, translating into Minimal levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in all rural areas of the country between August and December (Figure 3).  

Areas of Concern

Southeastern rainfed farming areas (livelihood zone 6)
Current situation

Normally, poor households work their own fields and those of better-off households beginning in May, which accounts for approximately 20 percent of their annual income. With a large part of the family workforce already back in place, many poor households have already finished planting their crops. The 25 percent hike in the wage rate for day labor triggered by the growth in seasonal employment opportunities on the farms of better-off households, the main source of seasonal income, could go from 25 to 50 percent between August and September with the need for timely weeding.

Poor households are still purchasing food supplies on local and weekly markets well-stocked with imports from Mali and Nouakchott. Seasonal prices for sorghum, the most widely consumed cereal by poor households, which have been rising at the rate of 10 MRO/kg per month since April, are still four percent below-average, since most of the crops sold are from Malian farmers looking to unload their old stocks of sorghum to fund livestock purchases. High demand from Malian refugees living outside refugee camps has heightened pressure on prices for wheat and locally grown rice, the main substitute cereals. As a result, the price of wheat on the Adel Bagrou and Bassikounou markets is up by 23 percent from May and 45 percent above the average for the last four years. Likewise, the price of rice is up by 22 percent from May and 16 percent above-average. Sales of wheat from village-level food security stocks (SAVS) at prices 50 to 60 percent below the official market price offer an alternative to market purchasing but since, in practice, such sales are not strictly limited to poor households, supplies are clearly unable to keep pace with demand. As a result, many poor households are still eating sorghum. The resumption of short-term seasonal migration to Mali is beginning to produce a small flow of remittances of food. However, the volume of these remittances is barely a third of its normal size, given the sharp reduction in the numbers of migrant workers with the crisis in that country.

Pastoral conditions, which had been severely degraded under pressure from local livestock herds and the herds of Malian refugees, have started to improve. The improvement in milk availability will not be as significant as expected with the reduction in the number of female animals due to the combined effects of losses during the lean season, voluntary herd thinning, and livestock sales. 

Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario described below for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following general assumptions:

  • In spite of local transportation constraints, there will be regular market supplies of staple cereals (sorghum and millet) and imported foods (rice, wheat, sugar, tea, and oil) in this area between June and November. Most area roads will be closed to traffic during the rainy season.
  • Sorghum prices will come down as the demand for seeds for rainfed crops wanes (in August) and crop sales by Malian farmers pick up. The resumption of short-term seasonal migration to Mali will produce normal to above-normal levels of income for poor households.
  • The rainy season will progress normally, with poor households earning average to above-average incomes from local farm labor as current good conditions after a poor crop year prompt middle-income and better-off households to make up for previous production shortfalls by planting larger areas in crops, requiring more labor than usual.
  • Assistance needs for the refugee population will stabilize and will be met by the humanitarian community. Refugees settling outside of the camps will have regular, adequate food access on local markets.
  • Assistance programs for poor area households (village-level food security stocks, government-subsidized shops, and outpatient therapeutic feeding centers for moderately malnourished children) will be extended through December.
  • The improvement in pastoral conditions as of July will put them on par with the average.
  • Rising prices for livestock will maintain favorable household terms of trade through December.
  • Seasonal global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates will be under 16 percent, the rate for the same time last year and the three-year average.
Most likely food security outcomes

Normally, the improvement in pastoral conditions as of July marks the end of the lean season in pastoral areas and provides households with a supply of milk, which is a mainstay of the local diet. Income from farm labor and short-term seasonal migration is used to purchase food, with any gaps filled by borrowing and common coping strategies such as reducing intake and skipping meals. Though the rainy season has barely gotten underway, the growing volume of cereal exports from Mali and the restocking of village-level food security stocks and boutiques de solidarité are ensuring adequate food availability in this area, to which poor households are able to maintain access with their wage income from farm labor and seasonal migration income. However, with below-average levels of migration income for this time of year, they are still facing Stressed levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2), as reflected in their difficulty maintaining regular, adequate food access. Nevertheless, outcomes are expected to improve as the season progresses. The increase in suitable rainfall in this zone since late July is improving on-farm employment prospects for poor households, leading to larger earnings compared with income figures for July, which should normalize conditions. Thus, Stressed acute food insecurity in this area will gradually give way to Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between August and September and on into December under the combined effects of good pastoral conditions, harvests of long-cycle crops, income from outside employment, and favorable terms of trade bolstered by rising prices for livestock (due to the expected large demand for livestock for the religious holidays).

Mixed pastoral and oasis areas (livelihood zone 2)

Current situation

Poor households in this area normally live mainly on milk produced by their dairy herds and food purchased with income generated by the sale of a few animals. Their lowland cereal crops harvested between February and March are depleted by June, making them market-dependent until March of the following year.

Two consecutive years of poor rainfall conditions have impacted this livelihood system,  driving poor households to sell more animals in order to buy food and animal feed to sustain the rest of their herd. Poor households outside oasis areas dependent on lowland crops are the worst affected. The protracted lean season (the area has not yet received meaningful rainfall) is adding pressure to livelihoods as  without farming and pastoral activities, poor households have no other choice than to sell more animals and/or head to  urban areas (Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, and Zouerate) in search of seasonal work. Many households have already sold as many animals as they can without compromising the primary source of food and income. With few members of these households employed by mining and road construction companies, which are located far from  where they live, they are not generating enough income to maintain regular food access through market purchase. In lieu of their regular milk, sorghum, and rice-based diet, poor households are now consuming purchased or borrowed supplies of wheat and wheat products (noodles and wheat flour) or rice. Their food gap is accentuated by  unusually poor access to safe water. While these are all structural factors, they are more pronounced than usual this year and have resulted in IPC Phase 2 Stress levels of acute food insecurity.

In Oasis areas,  food and cash from farming activities are good, including hot off-season market gardening activities, and the harvesting and marketing of this year’s larger than average and higher-quality date crop, produced with the help of the technical training and supervision furnished to over 75 percent of oasis farming households as part of Project Oasis.  Some poor households have temporarily left the area to look for work with road construction and mining companies that have been operating in Adrar and Tiris Zemmour since the end of last year, paying monthly wages of around 60,000 MRO. The resulting stronger than usual local purchasing power has encouraged speculation and subsequently increased prices for staple foods since early in the year.

Price trends for wheat and local rice, the two main cereals consumed by poor households in oasis areas, are showing somewhat different patterns. While prices for local rice are moderately above the five-year average (by 6.6 percent), the differential in the case of wheat prices is much larger (28 percent) due to the high demand from pastoral households, while other households are able to fall back on locally grown rice for consumption. The drop in the price of sheep on the Aoujeft market (by 8 percent since April) could be attributable to the stable prices of camels, the main type of slaughter animal, in unusually large supply due to the sales by pastoralists to purchase animal feed.  The combination of these trends in livestock prices and increasing prices of staple foods will result in less favorable terms of trade, impacting poor households in particular.

In this zone, the government implements a special assistance program that focuses on strengthening village-level food security stocks and extending the pastoral assistance program and distributions of free food rations for poor households. With the food assistance distributed to Sahrawi households being resold at prices 50 to 70 percent below the prices charged by local vendors, the steady flow of trade with the southern reaches of North Africa offers an alternative supply channel for local households.

Assumptions

The most likely local food security scenario described below for the period from July through December 2013 is based on the following general assumptions:

  • The rainy season will progress normally, producing enough new seasonal pasture growth to meet demand in pastoral areas and reducing current spending on animal feed.
  • Farming activities will continue between July and August (including the cultivation of wadi beds and cold-season market gardening activities), with the prospect of poor households farming more extensive areas, given the large  number of working members of middle-income households employed by mining and road construction companies active in this area.
  • Markets will function normally throughout the outlook period, with regular supplies of substitute cereals and staple foodstuffs as traders are likely to make appropriate adjustments in their imports to meet consumer demand.
  • Milk production will visibly improve as of August, which plays a leading role in keeping poor households food-secure, particularly in the absence of any large losses of camels by local pastoralists. However, with persistent pasture deficits since November 2011 and the resulting low numbers of new births, milk production levels will be lower than usual.
  • The date harvest will set a five-year record, giving poor households better than usual seasonal employment and income-earning opportunities.
  • Income levels from farming activities will be normal between July and December, but lower levels of seasonal migration income. Resulting gaps will be filled by wage income from road construction work.
  • Poor households will sell few livestock throughout the outlook period, given the make-up (goats and a few sheep) and reduced size of their herds (a dozen or so animals).
  • The special government assistance program will run smoothly through September.
Most likely food security outcomes

Household income levels between June and December will be above-normal. Poor households will use part of this income to pay back loans of food as a practice which strengthens future borrowing power. Current food access by poor households will be bolstered by the spin-off effects of the date growing season between June and August and by wage payments from mining and road construction companies throughout the outlook period. The establishment of the rainy season will improve current milk availability, an important source of food for poor households, while, at the same time, reducing spending on animal feed. Area households will be able to engage in normal farming activities between July and December, including market gardening activities and the cultivation of rainfed crops on the banks of intermittent streams, and flood-recession crops in streambeds, natural oases (graras), and depression, lowland, and dam areas. Recently restocked assistance programs (SAVS and BS) will reduce current Stressed food security conditions (Phase 2, IPC 2.0) to Minimal levels of food insecurity (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) between now and December.

Staple food prices should not drastically increase during the outlook period. Trade with the southern reaches of North Africa will continue through December, affording poor households an opportunity to purchase food supplies at prices well below official market prices and the prices charged by SAVS programs. This should reduce widespread Stress levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) faced by poor households since 2012 to Minimal levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) by August and continue to steadily improve conditions between August and December.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Area

Event

Impacts on food security conditions

Nationwide

 

Increase in international market prices for substitute cereals (wheat and rice)

Sharp increase in food prices, limiting food access of poor households

Protracted disruption in cross-border trade

Spike in cereal prices and reversal of current trends in terms of trade

Locust infestation

Damage to crops and pasture

Rainfed farming areas

Localized locust infestation

A locust infestation in northern Mali would also affect this part of Mauritania, causing losses of local rainfed crops.

New outbreak of fighting following the July elections

A new wave of refugees would put heavy pressure on markets and drive up food prices. Poor households will be unable to maintain regular, adequate food access.

Mixed pastoral and oasis areas

Civil insecurity problems in northern Mauritania

 Shortages of market supplies; shutdown of mining and road building activities in these areas

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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