Key Message Update

The compounded impacts of the previous season cause continued food insecurity

November 2015
2015-Q4-2-2-MR-en

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite the late start to the rainy season, cereal production is 14 percent above the 5-year average which indicates an improved cereal availability for poor households affected by a more difficult 2015 lean season (June to September 2015).

  • This year’s cereal production surpluses will enable near-average household incomes. In addition, favorable pastoral conditions, regular cross-border trade flows with neighboring countries, and supplies of imported basic foodstuffs at stable prices will reinforce adequate food access in the majority of the country. As a result, most poor households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

  • The locust situation remains calm, but strong rains recorded in northwest Mauritania during the month of October will maintain favorable ecological conditions for locust reproduction for at least the next six month, according to the FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations. In addition, the OFDA ETOP report noted that the presence of hopper bands in central Mauritania and mature adults in several locations suggests that breeding has already begun in the northwest. These conditions pose a threat to upcoming harvests, including for flood recession crops (walo).

  • A situation of Stress (IPC Phase 2) will persist in the agropastoral zone (departments of Moudjéria, Monguel, Tidjikdja, M’Bout, M’Bagne, Magta-Lahjar, Boghé, Bababé, Aleg, Boumdeid, Barkéol, and Kaédi) where the decline in livestock numbers and seasonal births is reducing milk production. This, compounded with the reimbursement of debts contracted during previous lean seasons, will cause households to forgo essential non-food spending until at least March.

  • In the center of the rainfed crop zone (departments of Amourj and Diguent), the delayed harvests of long and short cycle crops, caused by the rainy season’s late start, prolonged the lean season significantly. Although average production levels are expected, the income generated from these harvests will not cover all the non-food needs of poor households who are more indebted than usual this year because of previously challenging years. These households will remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until at least March.

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October 2015 to March 2016.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics