Persistent Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with increasing needs projected due to conflict and fuel crisis despite ongoing harvests

Download Report

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, currently in the regions of Kidal and Ménaka, will continue due to access constraints linked to very high food prices and a sharp decline in incomes, with the situation in Ménaka expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) starting in April. The regions of Gao, Mopti, Tomboctou, and northern Ségou will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to high prices and insecurity-related livelihood deterioration. Elsewhere in the country, the current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through May 2026, supported by average household stock availability.
Security incidents between the army and armed groups continue across the country, accompanied by crackdowns affecting civilian populations who have been forced to abandon their places of residence, as in Loulouni (Sikasso) and Leré (Tomboctou) during November 2025. Reduced mobility of people and goods, forced displacement, and the ongoing decline in economic activity — including industrial operations — continue to negatively affect the incomes of affected households and the overall economy, with the International Monetary Fund revising economic growth down from 5 percent to 4.1 percent.
Since September 3, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has sought to impose a blockade on petroleum products along corridors coming from Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, causing major disruptions to national supply and localized fuel shortages. These fuel supply shortages are affecting transport, trade flows, and the economy, and led to temporary school closures in early November. Despite improved availability toward the end of November, access to fuel remains difficult and costly, particularly in the south and center of the country, where informal-market prices remain very high. Immediate impacts on food insecurity in October and November were not observed due to ongoing harvests, which are maintaining good food availability, falling prices, and current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, the population in need is expected to increase, especially in urban areas. Reduced irrigation capacity and increased reliance on manual milling are delaying harvests and will limit off-season production, contributing to higher prices. By late November, the prolonged decline in incomes and purchasing power will lead to worsening food consumption gaps and increase the population in need, particularly in the regions of Koulikoro, Ségou, Sikasso, Bandiagara, Mopti, San, Nioro, Niono, and Macina, which are already under strain due to insecurity.
Fuel availability will remain volatile and will depend on the persistence and severity of the blockades, as well as the ability to open alternative routes to supply key areas. FEWS NET anticipates that the fuel crisis will continue at least through December, with uncertainty about developments beyond that point. A prolonged crisis would likely cause a sharp decline in off-season production, trade flows, and incomes, increasing poor households’ reliance on more extreme coping strategies such as selling assets/equipment and taking on excessive debt. As a result, in addition to a rising population in need, areas currently classified as Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in April, with an early lean season beginning as early as May instead of June in Bandiagara, Nara, Mopti, the circles of Macina, and parts of Niono (areas particularly affected by insecurity).
Household access to food is improving due to the generally average harvests underway countrywide and the seasonal decline in cereal prices, though the drop is less pronounced than in a typical year. However, in insecure northern areas, market dysfunction is maintaining well above-average staple cereal prices — such as in Gao (21 percent), Ménaka (76 percent), and Kidal (82 percent) — continuing to constrain poor households’ access to food. Goat-to-millet terms of trade remain unfavorable in pastoral areas as staple cereal prices are high compared with the five-year average, especially in Ménaka (-34 percent) and Kidal (-53 percent).
The establishment of off-season crops for market gardening and irrigated rice is underway, but the fuel crisis, high agricultural input costs, and forced displacement will limit production despite average water availability in typical areas. Ongoing market-garden harvests, continuing through March, will provide relatively average incomes for farming households. At the same time, the return migration of herds to dry-season areas is continuing, with early southward movements linked to security disruptions in the river valley around Ansongo, Gao, and Mopti, as well as in more accessible parts of Ménaka and Kidal. National production of animal products (milk, cheese, butter) is generally average.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Key Message Update November 2025: Persistent Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with increasing needs projected due to conflict and fuel crisis despite ongoing harvests, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.