Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity resulting from ongoing average harvests in the country

Overall average harvests are underway across the country. The approximately 31 percent above average rise in cereal production predicts an average to good availability of cereals during the 2017/2018 food year in the country despite pockets of significant decline in some areas. As a result, the majority of households in the country currently face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Market supply of cereals is average throughout the country and is improving with the ongoing harvests. The availability of own production and the seasonal decline in cereal prices, although above the five-year average, and the near-average terms of trade in livestock / cereals favor average household access to food.

Current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity is expected to deteriorate beginning in March due to early depletion of stocks and expected higher cereal prices in the Western Sahel, the Inner Niger Delta. and in the pastoral areas of Timbuktu and Gao; This will lead poor households to adopt early coping strategies and therefore will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

Early migration of livestock herds to grazing areas in the Western Sahel and along the Niger River may create overgrazing that will adversely affect livestock production and pastoral incomes for households in the Western Sahel and Gourma of northern regions. Declining pastoral income will limit pastoralists' access to markets.