Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is expected in some areas starting in March

Above-average harvests are ongoing throughout the country, which will provide above-average food availability during the 2015/16 year. Pastoral conditions are also good, which provides a favorable outlook for livestock food availability and for average milk production and animal body conditions. This, in turn, will maintain favorable cereal-to-livestock terms of trade across the country.

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity should continue for the majority of agropastoral and pastoral households until the main harvests in October 2016 due to the good availability of food, average to above-average agricultural incomes, food prices that are expected to follow normal seasonal trends, and above-average cereal-to-livestock terms of trade, which will enable average food access for most households.

However, flood-affected households across the country will be unable to satisfy both their food needs and costs to rebuild their livelihoods without resorting to atypical coping strategies. Due to an earlier than normal depletion of their food stocks, these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) starting in March 2016.

Poor pastoral households in the regions of Tombouctou and Gao saw an atypical decline in their herd sizes during the past two years due to increased livestock deaths and sales. The resulting decline in pastoral incomes will limit their access to food through market purchases and as a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) starting in March 2016.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October 2015 to March 2016.