Difficulty for poor households to access food due to high food prices

A 31 percent increase in security incidents (ACLED) compared to the first quarter of 2021 was observed mainly in the Liptako Gourma band on the border with Niger. Economic disruptions, population displacements, theft, and subsequent fatalities further degrade access to food for already food insecure populations in the area from Stress to Crisis.

Household access to food has deteriorated due to the unexpected rise in food prices of 20 to more than 30 percent compared to the five-year average and has reduced the terms of trade livestock/cereals for pastoral households from -10 to more than -25 percent. In addition, the overall decline in the income of poor households in urban and insecure areas reduces their ability to access food. The off-season rice harvests expected from May to June will improve availability in the affected areas.

The current pastoral lean season will be average overall in the country thanks to moderately good pasture and water supplies, but more difficult than usual in the insecure areas of the north where pockets of deficit and disruptions to herd movements limit access to pasture. The resulting loss of body weight and decline in livestock production (milk, cheese, butter) reduces the income of pastoralist households in these areas.

Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes for poor households in the Liptako Gourma and insecure areas will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) beginning in April due to difficulties accessing food and the continued deterioration of their livelihoods with residual insecurity. Poor households in urban centers, the Western Sahel zone, and the Niger River Valley depending more on markets for food supplies, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from June to September 2022.