Insecurity and high prices are limiting poor households access to food

Download Report

Insecurity remains the main driver of food insecurity in Mali. By the end of 2024, FEWS NET projected that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would affect conflict-affected areas in central and northern Mali starting from March 2025. Ménaka remained the area of highest concern, where the prevalence of global acute malnutrition was already very high (GAM >15 percent), and where inaccessible areas are still being reported. Insecurity in central and northern Mali has caused a severe deterioration in food consumption due to reduced food access, limited humanitarian access and access to basic social services, and increased reliance on extreme coping strategies such as reducing the number and size of meals, selling productive assets, and depending on community solidarity and begging. FEWS NET estimated that between 500,000 and 749,999 people will need food assistance in April-May 2025, and that this number would continue to rise during the 2025 lean season from June to August.
The security crisis in central and northern Mali, which has spread to the regions of Kayes, Ségou, Koulikoro, and Sikasso, continues to negatively impact the national economy. It has caused atypical population movements, the abandonment of villages, disruptions along certain roads, market dysfunction, and restrictions on humanitarian assistance. From January to June 2025, security trends were relatively stable compared to the previous year. By mid-July 2025, ACLED reported 810 security incidents resulting in 2,306 deaths, representing an 8 percent decrease in incidents and a 2 percent decrease in deaths compared to the same period in 2024. The number of internally displaced persons reached 402,167 in December 2024. However, starting in June 2025, due to intensified attacks, military offensives, and the geographic spread of armed group violence into new areas in the south of the country, along with seasonal flooding, the upward trend in displacement is likely to continue throughout 2025.
The agricultural season is progressing normally in agricultural zones, though major disruptions to planting are occurring in insecure areas in the center and north of the country, and even in the Western Sahel where access to fields is reduced. Rainfall from April to July 20 was normal to below average in the regions of Sikasso, Koulikoro, and Ségou, and normal to above average elsewhere, allowing crop planting to continue. Rainfall forecasts are average to above average from June to October 2025. According to the 2024/25 National Directorate of Agriculture’s main season planning, cereal production is expected to increase by 17.7 percent compared to the five-year average due to the development of new farming areas, support for agricultural inputs, and favorable rainfall forecasts. However, FEWS NET anticipates that these positive effects will be offset by reduced cultivated areas in insecure zones in the center and north, expected losses due to flooding, and difficulties accessing inputs due to delays in supply and prices over 20 percent above normal. These factors will likely result in near-average overall production.
Pastures and water points are seasonally replenishing due to ongoing rainfall, encouraging the resumption of milk, butter, and cheese production, which is improving food consumption and income for livestock-dependent households. However, in insecure zones in the center and north, livestock production remains below average due to reduced herd sizes caused by theft and excessive sales of animals. Although herds are in their normal rainy-season pastures in the south, transhumance movements are heavily disrupted in insecure areas, with atypical concentrations of livestock reported in safer zones.
Food supply to markets remains generally adequate, except in insecure areas where trade flows are significantly disrupted due to insecurity and severe road degradation from heavy rains, resulting in below-average market supply. Prices of major staple cereals remain 25 to over 50 percent higher than the five-year average, with notable increases in Ménaka (59 percent), Kidal (40 percent), and Gao (27 percent). The above-average price trend is expected to continue even during the October 2025 harvest period. While the arrival of new harvests typically causes seasonal price declines through December, prices will still remain above the five-year average due to high agricultural production costs.
Limited financial mobilization is constraining the ability of humanitarian actors to adequately meet household needs, thereby increasing the number of food-insecure populations. As of July, only 6 percent of required funding for the food security response had been secured. According to an OCHA report, this lack of funding forced WFP to reduce its emergency food and nutrition assistance by 35 percent, reaching only 650,000 people out of the originally targeted 1.8 million for 2025. Due to lack of financial resources, operations had to be suspended in the regions of Ségou, Koulikoro, and Kayes, except in the case of new shocks.
The agropastoral lean season is proceeding normally across the country, except in the insecure central and northern areas, where it began one-to-two months early due to early depletion of food stocks, high staple food prices, deteriorating livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, and difficulties in humanitarian access. In these areas, livelihoods have been severely degraded by the shutdown of economic activities, population displacement, and productive asset sales and damage, especially in insecure zones, further reducing households' ability to meet food and non-food needs. Between July and September, food consumption will remain severely degraded due to access constraints. These hardships are forcing households to intensify negative coping strategies, including reducing both food and non-food spending. In insecure areas of central and northern Mali, continued insecurity is limiting households' access to regular sources of income and food, forcing adoption of extreme strategies like cutting food spending, relying on cheaper or wild foods, and reducing meal sizes and frequency. The situation will remain most critical in Ménaka and Kidal due to more severe security disruptions caused by increased armed group attacks and intensified military operations.
Starting in September, the availability of green harvests from early planted cereals and legumes (cowpeas, peanuts) will support seasonal improvement in food consumption, especially in agricultural zones. While the number of people in need will decline after September with the end of the agropastoral lean season, needs will remain high in the north of the country, especially among displaced populations, Burkinabé refugees, and poor host households.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Key Message Update July 2025: Insecurity and high prices are limiting poor households access to food, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.