Insecurity is driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the center and north of the country

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The security situation in Mali remains worrying as an increase in attacks by armed groups against the armed forces and civilian populations has been reported. Areas particularly affected are in the center of the country in the Liptako Gourma area (Bankass, Koro), Ansongo and Ménaka, and in the north of the Koulikoro and Ségou regions. The enormous disruption to economic activities, such as difficulties in accessing basic social services, particularly in the Ménaka region, and to supply flows, especially access to fields during planting at this time of year, are leading to population displacements.
In Ménaka, armed groups remain active and continue to persecute the civilian population, significantly disrupting or halting economic activities and intermittently blockading main supply routes. As a result, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes for households in Ménaka will continue through September 2024 due to their considerable difficulties accessing food and atypical resorting to begging, selling livestock and other productive assets, alongside an increasing dependence on humanitarian aid. In areas with limited access, where market supplies are inadequate and humanitarian access remains a major challenge, a small proportion of households will face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes.
In the tri-border area, notably Gao and Mopti where security incidents are still ongoing and the Liptako Gourma area (Bankass, Koro and Bandiagara) where incidents have recurred, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue through September 2024. Poor households are facing rising staple food prices and an overall reduction in economic opportunities, which have eroded livelihoods and significantly reduced their ability to access food. Households have been forced to significantly cut back on food and non-food expenditures and sell off productive assets during this atypically long lean season.
The agricultural season is progressing at an overall average pace across the country. Poor spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall from May to June delayed crop establishment in the country's southern agricultural zones; a reduction in the agricultural output is therefore expected in October. The resumption of rainfall in July was still insufficient in places, such as Koulikoro, Kayes, and Timbuktu, while planting has been ongoing since July 20. Plowing, sowing, and weeding operations are underway, offering average income opportunities for poor households in agricultural areas. Difficulties of physical access to fields, access to agricultural inputs due to low availability and high prices, and losses of cultivated areas due to heavy rains will reduce agricultural production and labor opportunities in the areas of concern. Cereal production forecasts are 11.2 percent higher than the five-year average, according to the 2024/25 season plan (Direction Nationale de l'Agriculture).
Households' access to food during the lean season is reduced in insecure areas due to limited market supply and high staple food prices in the face of an overall reduction in income, particularly in the regions of Gao, Timbuktu, Kidal, Ménaka, and the northern regions of Koulikoro and Ségou. Staple grain prices have increased compared to the five-year average overall, particularly in Ménaka (87 percent), Mopti (71 percent), Gao (68 percent), and Ségou (56 percent), reducing poor households' access to food during the lean season when market dependence is high. The same is true for pastoral households, which are experiencing a significant drop in their terms of trade due to the high price of staple grains.
From October onwards, there will be a seasonal improvement in food consumption due to the albeit low availability of new harvests, harvested products, livestock products (with the return of transhumant herds), and the seasonal decline in food prices. As a result, the majority of households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes, particularly in insecure areas. However, in the Ménaka region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected due to the high level of deterioration in livelihoods and economic activities and the persistence of negative coping strategies, such as reducing the volume and number of meals, selling goods, and the increasing dependence on humanitarian assistance.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Key Message Update July 2024: Insecurity is driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the center and north of the country, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.