Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• The security situation remains volatile and has deteriorated in the Ménaka and Mopti regions with the multiplication of armed attacks against the military and civilians, resulting in the displacement of populations and the abandonment of crop fields. The deterioration of livelihoods (loss of jobs, theft/looting of goods) and the atypical recourse to reduced food and non-food expenditures, and the resulting loans further increase the exposure of poor households to food insecurity, particularly in Ménaka, where humanitarian access remains very limited.

• The agricultural season is progressing at an average rate across the country thanks to the timely onset of rains, with cumulative rainfall from May 1 to July 20 considered normal to deficient across the country. According to the National Directorate of Agriculture, cereal production forecasts are up by 10 percent compared to the five-year average. However, insecurity in the center and north of the country and difficulties accessing agricultural inputs will negatively affect agricultural production in some areas.

• Market supplies of cereals remain sufficient overall, although the seasonal decline observed is more pronounced than in an average year. The increase in staple food prices by more than 50 percent compared to the five-year average and the deterioration of the terms of trade between livestock and grains due to high grain prices are reducing household access to food.

• The current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will continue until September 2022 for poor households in the insecure areas of the North, the Liptako Gourma area. The Ménaka region will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) due to the exacerbation of insecurity leading to the abandonment of villages, significant property losses, a reduction in the number of meals, and humanitarian access, which is very limited in the context of rising prices which is not favorable to access to food. Elsewhere, ongoing humanitarian food and non-food assistance from the Government and partners will limit the use of negative coping strategies in the beneficiary areas.