Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected in some areas despite good national agricultural production

The 34 percent increase in agricultural production compared to the average, and the average to good outlook for the off-season favors an average to above-average overall food availability and farm incomes in the country during the 2018-19 consumption year despite pockets of declining production in some areas. As a result, the majority of households are in a Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

The average to above-average availability of pastures and water points, despite disruptions in herd movements due to insecurity, favors a normal pastoral lean season from April to June. The average income from livestock sales due to the maintenance of satisfactory animal body weight and animal products is favorable to average access to markets for pastoralists.

Household access to cereals is average overall thanks to the average to above-average availability of own production, although low in some areas, payments in kind and food prices close to or slightly above average. The improvement in the terms of trade of goats/grains close to the average is conducive to adequate market access for households.

Poor households affected by poor production due to flooding along the Mopti River in Gao and community conflicts in the Mopti and Ménaka regions are experiencing a deterioration in livelihoods. The use of atypical labor, migration, reduction of non-food expenditures and dependence on humanitarian aid to meet their food needs puts them in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from February onward.