Livelihoods deterioration driving high levels of food insecurity in conflict zones

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Insecurity and conflict persist as the main causes of food insecurity in Mali, particularly in the central and northern regions where violence is disrupting economic activities and causing atypical population displacement. The central and northern regions remain the areas of concern, particularly Ménaka and Kidal, where an intensification of insecurity has been observed due to increased military operations, and where humanitarian access remains a concern. The difficulties of the ongoing agropastoral lean season are worsened by reduced income, rising food prices compared to the average, and market supply challenges. A seasonal improvement in food access is expected from October to January 2026 in the southern agricultural zones due to harvests, wild foods availability, and falling cereal prices, but access will remain limited in insecure northern areas where humanitarian needs will remain high.
The security situation remains volatile despite intensified military operations, which struggle to curb the actions of highly mobile armed groups. Repression by armed groups against civilians continues to cause population displacements and significantly disrupts economic activities in the regions of Kidal, Ménaka, Gao, and northern Ségou, including the Office du Niger area and the inter-river zone of Ségou. According to ACLED, over the past 12 months, 1,439 incidents resulting in 3,881 deaths were recorded across the country. An intensification of Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) attacks has been observed in southern Mali (in Ségou, Koulikoro, and Kayes), leading to blockades on certain roadways and reprisals against civilians. Population displacements continue, especially in Kidal and Ménaka, due to worsening insecurity, although some returns of displaced populations have been observed in the Bandiagara region in central Mali following mediation efforts with armed groups. As of July 31, nearly 70 percent of the 140,404 registered refugees were from Burkina Faso, and their continued arrival is putting additional pressure on the already limited local resources.
Heavy rainfall starting at the end of July and continuing thereafter has caused damage and losses to property/equipment, livestock, homes, grain storage, and crops across the country, particularly in Bamako District and the regions of Kayes, Koulikoro, Sikasso, Kidal, and Ménaka. As of August 11, more than 9,000 people had been affected, and around 30 deaths were recorded. These floods are worsening household vulnerability during the peak of the agricultural lean season. The number of victims could rise due to the forecasted heavy rains and anticipated rising water levels of the Senegal and Niger rivers from Ségou to Gao. The government and humanitarian partners have provided emergency assistance in the form of temporary shelters, food, clothing, and medical care.
Agricultural activities are progressing normally due to average to above-average rainfall across the country. Ongoing crop maintenance is offering average labor opportunities for poor households. As of August 10, cereal production is at approximately 88 percent of the forecast, almost identical to last year at the same time. However, local production declines are expected in conflict-affected areas in the center and north of the country due to reduced cultivated areas, limited access to agricultural inputs, and flood-related losses. Starting in September in agricultural areas, the first harvests, along with available livestock products and gathered wild foods, will improve food consumption until January 2026. Animal production and livestock income are generally average but will remain below average in pastoral areas due to theft, losses, and excessive livestock sales that have reduced herd sizes.
Food supplies in markets remain generally adequate, with improvements noted in Timbuktu and Gao due to high river levels that facilitate river transport. However, seasonal supply declines are exacerbated by insecurity, deteriorated roads, robberies, and blockades, especially in insecure northern zones. By the end of July, staple cereal prices were generally stable compared to the five-year average but sharply increased in Ménaka (43 percent), Kidal (40 percent), and Gao (2 percent), limiting food access for poor households. Due to these high prices, poor households are atypically increasing their participation in agricultural labor, relying more on community support, migration income, and petty trades. Basic food prices will remain above the five-year average, particularly in Ménaka and Kidal, where supply shortages are reported due to access challenges.
Government and humanitarian food assistance programs are ramping up normally during the agricultural lean season which continues through September. According to the 2025 National Response Plan, about 1.4 million people are targeted to receive at least 50 percent of their food assistance needs each month through September. While humanitarian actors are complementing the government-led food assistance with their own programs, the effectiveness of these responses is limited by underfunding, implementation delays, and access challenges. As of August 29, only 13.1 percent of required funds had been met according to OCHA, and only 7.5 percent for the food security sector. Humanitarian needs are expected to decline seasonally from September in the southern agricultural areas due to early harvests, but will remain high in the northern regions which are heavily market-dependent and continue to face disruptions in trade flows, economic hardship, and rising food prices.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Key Message Update August 2025: Livelihoods deterioration driving high levels of food insecurity in conflict zones, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.