Insecurity driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes at peak of lean season

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In August, increased attacks in the regions of Kidal, Gao, Ségou, Mopti and northern Kayes between the Malian armed forces (FAMa) and armed groups continues to significantly disrupt the peace, market supplies, and drive population displacements. With the JNIM's claim to extend its influence over historically peaceful areas which are home to lucrative cross-border smuggling routes, notably in the Sikasso and Koulikoro regions, incidents will continue to occur. Population displacements, repression of civilians, and damage to property have been observed in the Liptako-Gourma area, which extends northwards into the regions of Kayes (Yélimané, Kayes), Nara (Nara), Ségou (Niono, Macina), and San (San, Tominian). Disruptions to economic activities (particularly access to fields during the crop establishment period and weeding), difficulties in supplying markets, and difficulties in accessing social services are further exposing households to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes in these areas.
The agricultural season is progressing at an average pace across the country, with crop maintenance and planting of flood rice continuing in the Niger and Senegal river valleys. As of August 10, 2024, the total area planted to all crops (estimated at 5,946,161 ha) was slightly higher than last year's total of 5,633,310 ha. However, insufficient and uneven spatial temporal rainfall distribution from the start of the season to the end of June in most agricultural zones affected planting levels, despite the early onset of the rains. Agricultural production and opportunities for agricultural labor will be reduced due to a variety of factors including physical access to fields constrained by attacks by armed groups; limited access to agricultural inputs due to low availability and high prices; losses of cultivated areas due to heavy rains which submerged sown areas and made maintenance work difficult; and excess water in fields or prior to sowing, especially in flooded rice. Ongoing sowing and crop maintenance operations offer average food and income opportunities for poor households in agricultural areas.
Numerous cases of flooding following heavy rains have been recorded in almost all regions, particularly those of Bougouni, Ségou, Koutiala, Koulikoro, Bandiagara, Gao, Timbuktu, and in the Bamako district. According to the Council of Ministers meeting on August 23, 2024, 7,077 households, or 47,374 people, have been affected across the country. In addition to extensive damage to housing and public infrastructure, the flooding of low-lying crop areas; the destruction of food stocks, goods, and equipment; and the loss of livestock have been recorded. To date, disaster-stricken households have received initial food and non-food aid from the government and humanitarian partners across the country. However, forecasts of heavy rains during August and September maintain a high risk of flooding throughout the country. The risk of flooding in the Niger and Senegal river valleys and other waterways across the country remains moderate to high, given the rapid rate at which water levels are rising.
Households' access to food during the lean season is reduced in insecure areas due to the continuing increase in staple food prices amid falling household incomes, particularly in the regions of Gao, Timbuktu, Kidal, Ménaka, and the northern regions of Koulikoro and Ségou, where there are difficulties in supplying markets. In July, the price of staple cereals (millet, sorghum, maize) remained 107 percent above the five-year average in Ménaka, 68 percent in Gao, 55 percent in Ségou, 53 percent in Mopti, 47 percent in Sikasso, 44 percent in Tombouctou, 38 percent in Koulikoro, and 21 percent in Kayes. The high cereal prices are primarily linked to the drop in flows in areas with difficult access, the depletion of household stocks, the retention of stocks in line with the pattern of the agricultural season, the delay in the provision of food aid during the lean season, the rise in cost of living tied to the poor macroeconomic situation, and to the poor state of roads during the rainy season, which reduces availability on the markets.
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Ménaka will continue until September 2024 due to enormous difficulties in accessing food and atypical household recourse to begging, selling of livestock, sale of productive assets, and dependence on humanitarian aid. Supply difficulties linked to the latest incidents in the Kidal and Ménaka regions, with a significant increase in food prices, have exacerbated the difficulties households have in accessing food in an area where humanitarian access remains a major challenge, particularly in the border strip with Niger. In areas with limited access, a small proportion of households are facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. However, from October onwards, the availability of agricultural and harvested produce (albeit low) and livestock, and the seasonal drop in food prices, will help to improve household access to food, reducing the use of negative coping strategies by households. As a result, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will improve to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In other areas of insecurity, mainly in the Gao and Mopti regions, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue until September 2024 due to poor households' difficulties in accessing food. The continuing increase in staple food prices is significantly reducing poor households' ability to access food in a context of severely degraded livelihoods. Agricultural labor, the main source of income and food during this period, is significantly decreased due to difficulties in accessing fields. Households resorted to drastically reducing food and non-food expenditure, selling off productive assets, and moving to safer, more favorable areas. From October onwards, food consumption will experience its typical seasonal improvement with average availability of own-production, in-kind payments linked to agricultural activities, donations/zakat, and the seasonal drop in food prices. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Key Message Update August 2024: Insecurity driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes at peak of lean season, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.