Humanitarian assistance is needed to improve household access to food in insecure areas

• The 2022/23 agricultural season began with rainfall in the first 10 days of June in the southern part of the country. Despite the forecast for normal to above-average rainfall according to NOAA, IRI, and PRESSAS, difficulties in accessing agricultural inputs (fertilizers, seeds) and security concerns are likely to result in below-average harvests. Ongoing agricultural activities provide moderate opportunities for income and food for poor households outside of areas affected by insecurity.

• The impact of the ECOWAS economic sanctions and the Ukraine crisis continues to negatively affect the country's overall economy, leading to a decline in economic activity, reduced trade flows, and inflation in both food and non-food commodities. Poor households' access to markets is challenging during this lean season due to extremely high prices compared to the five-year average, as well as unfavorable terms of trade between livestock and cereals for farmers, amid a broader decline in income resulting from the aftermath of the ECOWAS sanctions and the Ukraine crisis.

• The security situation remains volatile and is deteriorating in the regions of Ménaka and Mopti, with an increasing number of incidents leading to population displacement. The deterioration of livelihoods (e.g, job losses, theft/pillage of property) further increases poor households' exposure to food insecurity.

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing for poor households in the conflict-affected areas of the North, the Liptako Gourma region, and more notably in the Ménaka region due to difficulties in accessing food, and will continue until September 2022. Poor households in urban centers, in Western Sahel, and in the Niger River Valley are facing ongoing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes that will continue until September 2022 due to the early lean season caused by the early depletion of stocks and the increase in food prices, which will food access.

Current Situation

Agricultural and pastoral production: The off-season rice harvests for 2021 and 2022 are below average due to difficulties in accessing agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilizers, seeds, fuel) and the reduction in the areas planted, linked to insecurity. These harvests are ongoing in the irrigated areas of the Niger River Valley, from Koulikoro to Gao, and in the receding lakes and ponds across the country. The harvests expected from June/July for rice, and from August/September for the flood recession crops, will improve food availability in the affected areas. The start of the new agricultural season is underway in the agricultural zones of the southern part of the country, where rainfall, although deficient at the beginning, continues to be recorded. Field clearing, manure transport, and sowing are also moderate income-earning and food opportunities for poor households. However, difficulties in accessing agricultural inputs (such as fertilizers and seeds) linked to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, particularly for fertilizers, will reduce the cultivated areas and yields for certain crops such as cotton, rice, and maize. 

Livestock conditions are severely degraded in the high-concentration areas in the northern and central regions due to the biomass production deficit and disruptions in livestock movements. In the southern regions of the country, the seasonal improvement of pastures and watering points is underway due to the rainfall; this is easing the pastoral lean season for livestock and boosting animal production (milk, butter, cheese), which contributes to improved food consumption and income for pastoralist households. The animal health situation is relatively stable. The livestock vaccination campaign against major epizootics continues across the country with the support of partners such as FAO and the ICRC.

Fisheries production: Fish catches continue in the waterways and ponds due to the low level of the floodwaters. The lower production, due to the low level of last year's floodwaters, provides moderate income for fishing households, given the significant increase in fish prices observed since March 2022 on the markets. This has boosted the purchasing power of fishing households and thus improved their food consumption. In the Niger Delta, insecurity continues to disrupt this activity by limiting access to certain fishing areas, thus reducing fishermen's income and, consequently, their ability to meet both their food and non-food needs. As for aquaculture, production continues and enhances the availability of fish. 

Market functioning and prices: A seasonal decrease in cereal supplies is observed on the country's markets, but is much more pronounced than in a normal year due to the lower agricultural production from the previous season and the security disruptions that reduce trade flows in certain markets, particularly in the Liptako Gourma region and northern Ségou, as well as disruptions in cross-border trade with neighboring countries due to the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS and WAEMU. However, the available supplies remain sufficient to meet overall consumption demands. During this lean season, demand (including institutional purchases), remains high due to the number of people in need and the delay in food procurement. At the end of May, the price of millet increased typically on consumption markets across the country, although a slight decrease is observed in some production markets in Bankass and Ségou due to ongoing sales for the financial needs of the new agricultural season, and also because of the lack of cotton income in cotton-producing areas. Compared to the five-year average, the price of the main cereals (millet, sorghum, maize) on the markets of regional capitals has increased by 101 percent in Sikasso, 92 percent in Ségou, 90 percent in Mopti, 75 percent in Koulikoro, 67 percent in Kayes, 63 percent in Gao, 55 percent in Timbuktu, and 5 percent in Kidal. These price levels reduce the ability of poor households to access food across the country, particularly in areas affected by insecurity and those that have experienced production declines. Imported foodstuffs have reduced availability (particularly for wheat-based products due to the Ukrainian crisis) and the upward price trend continues, linked to the low availability on the markets and the rising cost of petroleum, which is driving up transportation costs. The tax exemptions initiated by the government on rice, sugar, and oil imports, as well as the planned food assistance operations by the government and its partners, will help alleviate households' difficulties in accessing food. 

The supply of livestock on the markets is low compared to a normal year due to access difficulties in the insecure areas of the center and north (the main livestock supply regions of the country) and the seasonal movement of transhumant herds into the agricultural zones of the South. The typical increase in supply is still observed, particularly in the agropastoral areas of the Western Sahel and in some parts of the northern regions, where difficulties in feeding livestock are noted. A typical increase in demand for livestock is observed due to the Tabaski festival and the need for draft oxen in the agricultural areas of the country. This increase is typical for Tabaski but seasonal for the start of wintering. Livestock prices are on the rise overall. Compared to the five-year average, the price of goats is higher on the monitored pastoral markets due to a decrease in supply relative to the rising demand in anticipation of Tabaski. The increase is 65 percent in Ménaka, 28 percent in Timbuktu, 27 percent in Rharous, and 22 percent in Nara. This increase gives rise to average to above-average pastoral incomes for households that still have livestock that can be sold on the market. The goat/cereal terms of trade compared to the five-year average are deteriorating due to the surge in the prices of staple cereals, with increases of 56 percent in Mopti, 40 percent in Nara, 27 percent in Rharous, and 17 percent in Gao and Timbuktu, which reduces access to markets for the poor. They are almost identical in Bourem (+5 percent) and slightly higher in Ménaka (+13 percent). 

Population movement: Population displacements continue due to the persistence of security incidents, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area on the border with Burkina Faso and Niger, where there is a multiplication of hotspots of tension between armed groups, communities, and the intensification of military offensives. The number of displaced persons at the end of April was 370,548. This number is up slightly by 2 percent compared to February 2022 and by 0.5 percent compared to April 2021 (DTM Report, April 2022). Simultaneously, the hesitant return of refugees and displaced persons, facilitated by community-driven negotiations and agreements, persists with the backing of both the government and humanitarian organizations. The regions of Mopti (170,501 IDPs), Gao (52,338 IDPs), and Timbuktu (67,839 IDPs) are home to the largest number of displaced persons in the country. According to a UNHCR report, the main concerns of these displaced persons, most of whom are experiencing a sharp deterioration in their livelihoods, are food (97 percent) and shelter (67 percent) (DTM report, April 2022). 

Security situation: Security incidents continue to be recorded in the central and northern areas of the country, as well as in the northern regions of Ségou and Koulikoro. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), there was a 49.5 percent increase in security incidents compared with the first quarter of last year for the same period. This increase is mainly due to the intensification of military operations in the strongholds of armed groups and the growing number of armed attacks, as well as the return of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara for the recapture of territory in the Ménaka region after the departure of French troops, but also in the Mopti region. Armed attacks, clashes between armed groups, targeted assassinations, and the planting of explosive devices are continuing and report a more than 200 percent increase in the number of deaths in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021. These security incidents continue to disrupt the movement of people and goods and the regular functioning of markets, particularly in the border strip with Burkina Faso. 

Population movement: The typical return of able-bodied individuals for the new agricultural season is underway in farming areas. In the insecure areas of the center and north of the country, as well as in low-production regions where an atypical rise in the departure of able-bodied individuals and households has been noted, returns are low. This is driving a shortage of able-bodied individuals in these areas. As for population displacements in insecure areas, they continue with approximately 370,548 people (CMP, April 2022), 46 percent of whom are in the Mopti region alone. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to renewed violence against civilian populations is expected to increase in the coming months. Returns of Malian refugees from Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania continue to be recorded across the country. 

Impact of ECOWAS sanctions and the Russia-Ukraine crisis on households: The closure of borders between Mali and neighboring countries due to ECOWAS sanctions has significantly reduced the flow of trade, negatively impacting economic activity in the country and leading to a decrease in income for households dependent on sectors such as hospitality, manufacturing, commerce, and construction. The rise in global oil prices and the limited availability of certain food items (such as wheat and oil) and fertilizers are restricting access to these goods, particularly for low-income households. The decline in off-season rice production is due to a reduction in cultivated areas caused by insecurity, as well as the low use of high-cost fertilizers resulting from the Ukraine crisis. These difficulties exacerbate the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, which continues to impact the national economy by reducing economic activities. 

Nutritional situation: The prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM), according to the results of a nutrition survey based on the SMART methodology conducted from September to October 2021, is 10.0 percent nationwide, which is high by WHO standards, particularly in Timbuktu (10.5 percent) and Gao (13.5 percent) and very high in the Ménaka region (17.9 percent, including 3.9 percent Severe Acute Malnutrition). The typical deterioration in the nutritional situation is observed due to difficulties in accessing food during this lean season, particularly for low-income households facing early depletion of stocks, reduced income, and reliance on coping strategies such as lowering the quality, quantity, or even frequency of meals. Additionally, there is a higher burden of childhood illnesses, particularly malaria and diarrhea, due to the onset of the rainy season and poor hygiene and sanitation conditions. The deterioration is more pronounced in insecure areas, especially for displaced households, where access to basic social services and nutrition programs remains limited. Nutritional screening and recovery programs continue across the country with the support of partners. In Week 22 of 2022, the number of admissions of children suffering from acute malnutrition (severe and moderate) saw a slight increase of 5 percent compared to the same period in 2021 (5,109 cases versus 4,836 in 2021).

Food Insecurity Outcomes 

The early depletion of stocks, caused by a 10-30 percent decline in cereal production during the 2021/22 season compared to the five-year average due to climatic hazards and insecurity in the central and northern regions, has increased households' reliance on markets. The overall decline in income currently observed due to the impact of ECOWAS sanctions on the country's economic activities and trade flows with neighboring countries has reduced the ability of poor households to access available food, which is now priced more than 40 percent above the five-year average. Poor households in the country’s agropastoral areas and urban centers that are unable to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical borrowing (in-kind or cash), reducing non-food or food expenditure, or selling assets are currently experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. 

In the conflict zones of the center and north, livelihoods are experiencing significant deterioration due to the persistence of insecurity and its effects on economic activities, including widespread underperformance, theft, job losses, and more. The challenges faced by poor households in accessing food due to low incomes and the high prices of basic foodstuffs are contributing to a sharper decline in food consumption compared to an average year, particularly in the three-border area of Ménaka, which is affected by ongoing clashes between armed groups. Households are resorting to reducing the size and number of meals, as well as seeking assistance from relatives, friends, and humanitarian agencies. With the complete erosion of their livelihood protection strategies, households are struggling to survive and are resorting to negative coping strategies such as selling productive assets; poor households are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Humanitarian assistance is needed in the insecure areas of Ménaka to prevent further deterioration. The same applies to displaced households in these areas, who find themselves in a state of deprivation and in need of assistance to avoid transitioning into an Emergency situation.

Assumptions 

The most likely food security scenario from June 2022 to January 2023 is based on fundamental assumptions, in relation to changes in the national context, which are: 

• Security situation and population movement: The security situation will remain volatile throughout the projection period, despite ongoing negotiations between different communities and military offensives targeting terrorist strongholds. Attacks between armed groups (particularly in the Ansongo-Ménaka nature reserve in Liptako Gourma), the planting of explosive devices, and targeted assassinations will continue, although a decline in intensity is expected due to climatic conditions which will limit movement. The disruption of agricultural activities and the resulting displacement of populations will weaken socioeconomic conditions in the areas concerned.
• Sociopolitical situation: The Malian Transitional Government will probably present a new electoral calendar in the coming months to ECOWAS. The impacts of economic and financial sanctions will continue to affect the country's overall economic and financial situation for a long time, even if sanctions are eased in the next few months. In the coming months, a resurgence of political protests is likely in Bamako and urban areas of the country as some protesters gather to show their support for the Transitional Government and denounce ECOWAS sanctions.
• Rainfall/flooding: Consensus forecasts by NOAA, IRI, Mali-Météo, and PRESASS for April 2022 indicate a high probability of normal to surplus cumulative rainfall in Mali from June to August 2022 and average to surplus from July to September 2022. For the rivers in the Niger and Senegal basins, average to above-average flows are expected from June to October 2022 due to the average to surplus rainfall expected.  
• Flooding: The forecast for normal to above-average cumulative rainfall and the high risk of flooding, according to the PRESASS projections for May to September 2022, raises concerns about moderate to significant damage to crops, equipment, and property in low-lying areas, as well as along rivers across the country (including urban areas). The resulting losses of material assets and agricultural production will negatively impact the livelihoods of poor households.
• Agricultural production: Favorable seasonal forecasts for climate factors (rainfall, floods), the continuation of the national agricultural input subsidy program (seeds, fertilizers), and agricultural input assistance, particularly in northern regions through FAO, ICRC, and other NGOs as part of resilience-building efforts, all support the prospect of average production in the country. However, the current limited availability of agricultural inputs (fertilizers) due to border closures and the Ukraine crisis, along with a more than 50 percent increase in fertilizer prices compared to normal, will restrict access for producers, especially in irrigated rice, cotton, and maize areas. This will reduce production below the five-year average by October 2022, with even greater declines in conflict-affected regions of Liptako Gourma and flood-prone areas across the country.
• Livestock production/movement: Degraded livestock conditions will begin to improve seasonally with the timely onset of rains starting in June in the southern regions and in July in the central and northern regions of the country. The improvement in livestock conditions will boost animal production (milk, butter, and meat) starting in June/July, reaching its peak in August/September. This will enhance food consumption and household income for pastoral families until January due to the availability of pastures and crop residues.
• Fishing: Fish catches, due to the resumption of flooding in rivers, will experience their typical decline from June to October. The average to above-average flow levels expected on the rivers according to the seasonal forecasts (PRESASS) are favorable to satisfactory reproduction of fish species due to the flooding of fish breeding areas. As a result, the outlook for the next fishing year starting in November 2022 will be near to above the five-year average. 

Markets and Prices

• Market food supplies: The seasonal decline in cereal supply will be more pronounced than in a typical year due to the reduced cereal production in 2021 and disruptions in supply chains in the conflict-affected areas of the central and northern regions of the country. The off-season crop harvests in June, along with intervention sales by the Mali Office of Agricultural Products (OPAM) in the northern regions and the Western Sahel regions of Kayes and Koulikoro, will improve cereal availability in the country. Average harvests expected from October will improve market supplies as typical to average to above-average levels through January 2023.
• Staple food prices: The trend of cereal prices generally being above average on the markets is expected to continue from June to September. Starting in October, despite the expected below-average harvests, there will be a seasonal decline in prices, which will remain above average due to the high cost of agricultural inputs. For imported foodstuffs, government exemption measures will help limit price increases and keep prices at an average to slightly above-average level.
• Livestock prices: Livestock prices, which are at or above average during this pastoral lean season, will remain stable until January 2023 due to demand for the Tabaski festival and the improvement in livestock conditions starting in June/July with the onset of rains. The same will apply to small ruminants, which are in highest demand. Disruptions to households' access to markets in the conflict-affected areas of northern Ségou, Mopti, and Ménaka, along with households' need for emergency sales, will result in livestock prices being below average in these areas throughout the period.
• Humanitarian aid: Food and non-food assistance continues to be provided, particularly in conflict zones, by humanitarian partners. For the agropastoral lean season from June to September 2022, the national response plan provides for monthly food aid of at least 50 percent of a full ration, primarily in cash, for 1,840,067 people across the country. However, the limited mobilization of government funds and challenges in humanitarian access to the affected areas may hinder the effectiveness of this aid.
• Migration: The typical return of able-bodied individuals during the migration will continue in line with the onset of the new agricultural season. The average to below-average resources reported in June or sent during the stay at reception areas in urban centers and neighboring countries will enable households to improve their access to markets, particularly in areas of reduced agricultural production and conflict zones, where departures have been earlier and larger than normal. Starting in September, there will be the typical departures of able-bodied individuals to gold mining sites, urban centers within the country, and neighboring countries despite the easing of movement restrictions between countries.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The typical decline in food consumption due to the agropastoral lean season will continue through September, driven by the gradual depletion of stocks among poor households and the sharp rise in the prices of basic foodstuffs. The poor food consumption score plus limit should be higher than the September five-year average (18.8 percent). The prolonged dependence of poor households on markets, coupled with declining incomes, will lead them to adopt atypical coping strategies, such as increasing agricultural labor (particularly since the season is favorable), selling livestock, and borrowing. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue until September. The average availability of green harvests from September onwards, the main harvests from October to January, and the expected seasonal fall in prices from October onwards will improve household access to food. As a result, the majority of households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from October to January 2023. 

Poor households in the insecurity-affected areas of the north and central regions, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area, are facing severely degraded livelihoods and moderate to significant difficulties in accessing food due to the early depletion of stocks, declining incomes, and loss of assets caused by ongoing insecurity. According to FEWS NET's Outcome Analysis, poor households in the Ménaka area and in Bankass and Koro districts cannot meet their food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. The reduction in the volume and quality of meals and the difficulties in accessing basic social services will contribute to increasing deterioration in the nutritional situation, which will be above the average level in the area between June to September. As a result, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these areas will continue until September 2022, particularly in the Ménaka areas, and in the absence of significant humanitarian assistance, the situation will deteriorate. The same applies to displaced households, which are in a state of destitution. Starting in October, the availability of harvests, wild food products, dairy items, and the seasonal decline in prices will help improve households' access to food. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October to January, with the need for assistance in conflict areas to avoid further deterioration, particularly in the Ménaka area.

Events that could change the scenarios 

Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most likely scenario.

Livelihood Zone 2: Northern livestock farming in the Ménaka region (Figure 3) 

Current Situation 

• Agropastoral production: Although production was low, it helped improve the consumption of vegetable farming households and provided them with income slightly below the average. Pastures are heavily degraded in accessible areas due to overgrazing, in a context of insecurity, where access to certain areas by livestock remains disrupted. Grassland pastures are of average to poor quality, while woody vegetation is moderately stocked. Watering conditions are average, with livestock being watered at permanent ponds, wells, and boreholes. The condition of livestock is deteriorating as is typical, but more severely than in an average year due to feeding difficulties which is reducing milk, butter, and cheese production during this pastoral lean season.
• Markets: Overall, the supply of markets with cereals and imported products from Algeria, such as pasta, powdered milk, and vegetable oil remains sufficient despite a more pronounced seasonal decline in availability due to reduced agricultural production in the typical supply areas in the southern regions of the country and disruptions in supply chains linked to insecurity. The price of millet at the end of May on the Gao market, the main supply market for the areas, was virtually stable (4 percent) compared to last month, as well as in Ansongo and Ménaka. Compared to the five-year average, the price of millet is significantly higher—by 63 percent in Gao, 56 percent in Ansongo, and 45 percent in Ménaka—which significantly reduces poor households' ability to access this staple food. Livestock markets operation remain disrupted due to insecurity which limits attendance, particularly in the Ménaka region, where attacks by armed groups have intensified. The price of goats, the most commonly sold animal by poor households, is up by 36 percent in Gao, 34 percent in Ménaka, and 37 percent in Ansongo compared to the five-year average, which is favorable for improving the incomes of pastoral households. The terms of trade for goats and millet have decreased compared to the five-year average by 17 percent in Gao, 8 percent in Ménaka, and 14 percent in Ansongo, which reduces pastoral households' access to markets. 
• Changes in livelihoods: Economic activities remain dependent on the ongoing insecurity, which affects trade both within the region and with neighboring countries, particularly Algeria and Niger. Disruptions in trade networks have reduced income opportunities for poor households in the region. Excessive livestock sales, along with theft and looting, have significantly reduced herd sizes, especially for the poor, some of whom have had to sell off their livestock to meet their food needs. Migration, which is on the rise, is an important source of income, but it is affected by the economic downturn in migrant-hosting areas. Poor households have developed strategies to meet their food and non-food needs, including intensifying non-agricultural labor, selling livestock for those who still have own, migrating able-bodied individuals, and resorting to atypical borrowing. Ongoing humanitarian cash transfer assistance, which has recently suffered from humanitarian access difficulties in the Ménaka area, is improving the purchasing power of beneficiary households. Additionally, households are engaging in brokerage activities in livestock markets, selling straw, and small-scale trading to improve their income levels.
• Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance in the form of food and non-food items from the government and various partners is continuing for poor households and displaced persons as part of the rapid response mechanism. During the first quarter of 2022, all those in need of food assistance (73,899 people) and even more (over 100 percent) received cash transfer assistance from humanitarian partners in the Ménaka region—27 percent in Ansongo, 37 percent in Gao—thereby reducing the reliance on negative coping strategies for the beneficiary households.
• Security situation/population movement: The security situation remains volatile, marked by a resurgence of armed attacks and clashes, the planting of explosive devices, and conflicts between communities or armed groups, particularly in the Ménaka area. The number of people killed during the period from June 10, 2021 to June 10, 2022 is 3,328 dead compared to 2,003 people killed during the period from June 10, 2020 to June 10, 2021, an increase of 66 percent (ACLED). Thus, restrictions on economic activities and atypical population displacements reduce employment and income opportunities in the area. The number of displaced persons has increased compared to January 2022, with an estimated 10,723 displaced persons in the Ménaka region and 51,626 displaced persons in the Gao region by the end of April 2022, according to the Population Movement Commission. These displaced persons are in need of food, cash, shelter, and NFI assistance.

Assumptions 

• Market supplies and cereal prices: Market supplies will continue to come from the typical sources in the southern regions of the country and neighboring countries, particularly Algeria and Niger, despite insecurity; this will reduce the level of trade flows. Given the more pronounced seasonal decline in supply and the context of price inflation, the price of millet will remain significantly above the five-year average from June to January 2023. Imported foodstuff prices (pasta, milk, oil, sugar) will follow a similar trend to cereals throughout the projection period due to the international context marked by reduced food availability and rising oil prices. 
• Pastoral income/Animal production: Given the disruption of livestock movement due to the resurgence of insecurity during this pastoral lean season, livestock production will continue to decline until July. The onset of rains starting in July will facilitate the restoration of livestock resources, leading to improved animal production, a recovery in livestock condition, and higher pastoral incomes and food consumption from July to January 2023. 
• Security situation/population movement: The resurgence of security tensions starting in May in the region, linked to the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS)'s efforts to reclaim territory following the withdrawal of French troops, and involving armed groups, terrorists, and the military, will contribute to maintaining pressure on the area from June 2022 to January 2023. Fighting, the planting of explosive devices, and conflicts between communities or armed groups, particularly in the Ménaka area, will continue. Restrictions on population movements and economic activities will reduce employment and income opportunities and humanitarian access in the area.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

The ongoing deterioration in food consumption for poor households due to limited food access linked to reduced livestock production during the pastoral lean season, skyrocketing cereal prices, the worsening terms of trade for goats and millet, and precarious household incomes is expected to continue from June to September 2022 in the absence of humanitarian assistance, particularly in the Ménaka region. The reduction in meal size and even the number of meals due to the early onset of the lean season and the decline in livestock production during this pastoral lean period will further deteriorate food consumption and the already critical nutritional situation in the area, with a GAM rate of 17.9 percent in Ménaka (according to the October 2021 SMART survey). The reduction in food expenditures, increased borrowing, heavy reliance on migrants, and dependence on humanitarian assistance all point to a difficult food situation for households in the area. Households unable to meet their food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) and will deteriorate further in the absence of humanitarian assistance from June to September 2022.

From October to January 2023, access to food will improve with the availability of wild produce, early harvests, and the seasonal decline in prices, which will improve the terms of trade for livestock and cereals. Reducing the use of negative coping strategies in addition to the factors mentioned above will improve household food consumption. However, the challenging economic conditions, marked by precarious incomes and soaring food prices, along with the impact of escalating insecurity on livelihoods, limited humanitarian access, and ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue to require humanitarian assistance.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Livelihood Zone 9: Sorghum/Millet Center of Bankass and Koro (Figure 5)

This area includes the municipalities in the Bankass and Koro districts and neighboring municipalities in the Douentza and Bandiagara districts affected by insecurity, where economic activities including farming are highly disrupted due to conflict. 

Current Situation 

• Agropastoral production: Preparations for the new agricultural season are underway. Field clearing, manure transport, and planting provide average income opportunities for poor households and displaced individuals, but these activities are disrupted by insecurity which restricts access to fields located far from villages. The availability of fodder and water points is favorable for average livestock feeding, but disturbances in herd movements in the area limit their access; this creates atypical concentrations in secure areas. A start to pasture and water point regeneration is being observed due to the onset of the rains. Overall, livestock body conditions are average. The herds are grazing in the dry-season pastures and in the floodplains along rivers. The animal health situation is stable. The livestock vaccination campaign is ongoing, but it is facing disruptions due to insecurity in the Douentza and Bankass districts.
• Markets: Overall, cereal supply to the markets remains sufficient despite disruptions in trade flows and market dysfunction, particularly in the border area with Burkina Faso, due to security incidents and population displacement. The price of millet has increased by 85 percent in Bankass and 79 percent in Koro compared to the five-year average. This price rise limits poor households' access to the market in an environment of declining overall incomes due to the negative impacts of the security crisis and the challenging international situation. Livestock markets remain heavily disrupted, prompting herders to turn to markets in neighboring regions of Ségou and even Burkina Faso. An increase in supply is observed during this period of high demand for the Tabaski festival. The price of goats at the end of May has increased compared to the five-year average by 14.9 percent in Koro, 12.5 percent in Bandiagara, 11.4 percent in Douentza, and 7.1 percent in Bankass. While this is favorable for pastoral incomes that are average to above average, it does not benefit the poor, who have a reduced livestock count due to excessive sales, theft, and limited access to markets. The terms of trade for goats and millet have decreased by 34 percent in Bankass and Koro compared to the five-year average, significantly reducing herder households' access to food on the markets.
• Security situation/population movement: Attacks by armed groups on civilians, clashes between armed groups, and the intensification of military operations in the area continue to disrupt the peace and drive atypical population displacements. According to ACLED, 205 incidents were recorded from January to May 2022, with 59 occurring in May alone in the Mopti region, primarily in the Liptako Gourma area, resulting in 946 fatalities. This represents an 11.4 percent increase in incidents and a 130 percent rise in fatalities compared to the same period in 2020. Disruptions in the movement of people and goods, market dysfunction, looting, property damage, as well as atypical population displacements and loss of life increase the vulnerability of populations in the area. By the end of April, nearly 170,501 displaced persons were recorded in the Mopti region, with 60.5 percent (103,229 persons) in the affected area. These individuals are facing enormous difficulties in meeting their food and non-food needs in camps and host households, placing pressure on the limited resources available.
• Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance of food and non-food items provided by the government and humanitarian agencies continues in the area, primarily for displaced persons under the rapid response mechanism and for poor households through targeted aid. During the first quarter of 2022, nearly 54,000 vulnerable people received food assistance across the region, mainly in the form of cash transfers. Assistance is the main source of food for more than half of displaced households (61 percent), according to the DTM report of April 2022. Difficulties in humanitarian access in certain localities disrupt the proper functioning of assistance operations in the area.

Assumptions 

The most likely food security scenario in the conflict zones of the Bankass, Koro, Bandiagara, and Douentza districts from June 2022 to January 2023 is based on the following specific assumptions: 

• Security situation: The security situation in the Liptako Gourma area will remain volatile throughout the scenario period. The intensification of military operations and ongoing intercommunity dialogues will mitigate but not significantly reduce security incidents in some areas, thus continuing to drive population displacement throughout the duration of the projection period. 
• Economic activities: The socioeconomic context will remain disrupted by security incidents and as a result household incomes in the area will be lower than average due to the decrease in seasonal employment opportunities. The reduction of arable land, particularly in the border area with Burkina Faso, market malfunctions, and population displacement will reduce labor employment opportunities (such as construction and petty trade) to below average for households throughout the projection period. Money transfers from permanent migrants, which are near average, will be critical for poor households to improve their access to food. 
• Cereal prices: The seasonal increase in cereal prices will continue until September 2022 due to institutional purchases and cash transfers as part of food assistance from June to September, which will maintain pressure on the markets. According to the FEWS NET projection system, cereal prices will remain above the five-year average throughout the projection period.
• Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance in food and non-food items from the government and humanitarian agencies will extend from June to September and will target approximately 126,534 people in the Bankass district and 194,937 people in the Koro district, representing 32 and 35 percent of the district populations, respectively. This involves a free food distribution for three months, covering at least 50 percent of the caloric needs of the beneficiary households from June to September. However, humanitarian access challenges due to ongoing insecurity will limit the delivery of this assistance to the entire targeted population.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

The early lean season, caused by the premature depletion of stocks, leads to an atypically prolonged dependence on markets in a context of rising food prices. Households' difficulties in accessing food leads to a deterioration in consumption due to strategies such as reducing food quality, portion sizes, and even the number of meals, particularly for the poorest households. The total deficit in livelihood protection or even survival for poor households, according to the FEWS NET Outcome analysis of May 2022, indicates difficult food consumption. The sale of assets, atypical reliance on borrowing, dependence on community aid and humanitarian assistance, and even begging, particularly for displaced households, place poor households in the area in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September 2022. 

From October to January 2023, the average availability of green crops and harvest products (fonio, legumes) starting in September will improve households' access to food, thereby reducing reliance on negative coping strategies. Food consumption will experience its typical improvement due to the availability of own production, although limited, as well as donations/zakat, stocks from in-kind payments, and the seasonal decrease in the price of the staple cereal. The persistence of security disruptions and their impacts on economic activities will continue to reduce the level of household income in the area and their ability to meet both their food and non-food needs. Despite the improvement in food security, the significant deficit in livelihood protection, linked to the decline in economic opportunities in the area, will continue to negatively impact the socioeconomic conditions of poor households, particularly displaced households. As a result, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from October to January 2023. Displaced households will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse outcomes. 

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Possible events over the next six months that could change the most likely scenario. 

Other Areas of Concern in the Country

The combined impact of the ECOWAS/UEMOA sanctions and the Ukraine crisis on a national economy that was already struggling to recover from the COVID-19 health crisis is not conducive to the desired restoration of degraded livelihoods, particularly in areas of insecurity and urban centers. The degradation of livelihoods due to the overall decline in income and the loss of assets reduces households' purchasing power as they face a historic rise in the prices of essential foodstuffs. This mainly concerns poor households in the Western Sahel region, the Niger River valley, and urban centers, which atypically resort to strategies such as reducing non-food and food expenditures, in-kind and cash borrowing, and even decreasing meal sizes. Food consumption will experience an above-average seasonal deterioration, which will worsen the nutritional situation beyond the typical lean season level. Poor households in these areas are unable to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse from June to September 2022.

From October to January 2023, households' access to food will improve due to the harvests (although limited), the seasonal decrease in cereal prices, and opportunities for in-kind payment. The current Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse outcomes will improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), except for households in non-producing urban centers, which will continue to suffer the impacts of high prices and lower incomes linked to the consequences of the difficult economic situation.