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Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity expected in areas with poor crop production

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Mali
  • January - June 2014
Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity expected in areas with poor crop production

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  • Key Messages
  • Current food security conditions
  • Areas of concern
  • Events that might change the outlook
  • Key Messages
    • The food balance sheet for Mali shows a surplus of over 650,000 metric tons of cereal, with cereal production also nine percent below-average. The areas most affected by production shortfalls include northern agropastoral areas, the Western Sahel, and the Dogon Plateau.
    • The security situation in northern areas of the country is stable, which is helping to spur the economic recovery in these areas and the return of refugees and IDPs. The recovery should provide more opportunities and income for poor households compared with previous months.
    • Newly harvested crops are gradually making their way to market and the improvement in mobility as security is gradually restored are ensuring adequate market supplies all across the country. In general, cereal prices are down from 2013 levels and near or slightly above the average. These price levels are facilitating food access for poor households.
    • Starting in March, the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity currently experienced by poor households will escalate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels for more than 20 percent of the population in parts of the Dogon Plateau and Western Sahel and in northern agropastoral areas. This will be due to large crop production shortfalls and the lingering effects of the economic slowdown. Pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity levels can be expected during the lean season (between July and September) in the worst-off areas, but will not affect more than 20 percent of the population.

    Current food security conditions

    Crop production

    This year’s cereal balance sheet shows a surplus of over 650,000 MT, with cereal production approximately nine percent below the five-year average and 19 percent below 2012 levels (a bumper year). The production shortfall is attributable to a rainfall shortage during the rainy season (between May and September), pest damage (from birds and caterpillars), and the low water levels in local rivers. There are large pockets of poor production on the Dogon Plateau, in the Koulikoro and Kayes areas of the Western Sahel, in the Inter-River area of Ségou, and the river valley of Timbuctu and Gao.

    Ongoing rice harvests in village-level irrigation schemes and plain areas across the country are producing normal levels of food and income for poor households. The growing season for off-season rice and wheat crops is also starting up in the usual areas of the country with average harvest prospects. This year’s market gardening season got off to an unusually early start in October, instead of December, in areas with poor cereal production as households attempted to limit the impact of the low water levels in these areas.

    Situation in pastoral areas

    Conditions in pastoral areas are marked by average pasture levels, with pockets of net pasture deficits in northern areas and the Western Sahel. The availability of pastures and watering holes is keeping livestock in average physical condition, allowing for normal milk production levels for the time being. Transhumant herds are currently heading back to year-round watering holes (rivers, lakes and ponds, etc.) and concentrating around recently harvested fields to graze on crop residues. Herd movements in the Lake Faguibine area in the north are being disrupted by lingering problems with crime in this livestock-holding area and are beginning earlier than usual in the Gourma area of Gao due to the pasture deficit in that area.

    Security situation

    Security conditions in the north are generally stable, with occasional disruptions by sporadic attacks and crime, particularly in the Kidal region. While, in general, the improvement in security over the past few months has helped spur an economic recovery, the return of refugees and IDPs, and the normalization of trade, lingering security threats continue to hamper movements by people and livestock in parts of northern Mali.

    Markets and prices

    In general, there are average food supplies on domestic markets and better food availability than in October of last year, with newly harvested crops gradually making their way to markets, particularly in crop-producing areas. The normal operation of trade networks in northern areas with the improvement in security conditions is helping to ensure good market supplies from regular source markets in the south. However, ongoing community and institutional stock-building activities are heightening demand, which is seasonally normal for this time of the year.

    Cereal prices on retail markets in the southern part of the country are generally stable. For example, January prices for millet were unchanged or slightly down from the previous month by approximately four percent on the Bankass and Diema markets and up slightly, by approximately five percent, in Monimpé and Dioila. On the whole, millet prices are above the five-year average by approximately eight percent in Bankass and Monimpé and 14 percent in Diema and about-average in Dioila. Rice prices were stable or down from the previous month and, in general, were between two and seven percent below-average.

    Millet prices in the north also show little movement from last month. Prices on the Timbuktu and Gao markets are approximately 30 percent lower than last season, but are above the average by about five percent in Gao and 11 percent in Ansongo. In Diré, located in the riverine area of Timbuktu, farm-gate prices for rice are up from last year by more than 25 percent due to a increase in demand compared with last year’s extremely low levels. This increase in rice prices has had a positive effect on local households, who are generally sellers rather than consumers of local rice at this time of the year.

    Supplies of livestock on markets across the country are improving compared with previous months with the return of transhumant herds from rainy season grazing lands and normal levels of animal sales by pastoralists for building their cereal stocks. The improvement in security and high foreign demand from the coastal states are strengthening demand for livestock, particularly in northern areas of the country. As a result, prices are more than 20 percent above-average. Moreover, the improvement in goats/millet terms of trade, which are also 20 percent above-average, is strengthening cereal access for pastoral households.

    Economic activities

    The main economic activities in the southern part of the country at this time of year are farming activities. In general, income levels from farm labor are average. However, exceptions to this are areas that experienced poor agricultural production, which has resulted in fewer job opportunities than usual. Sales of cash crops (sesame, cowpeas, groundnuts, and cotton) are going normally and are generating average, if not above-average income levels. This is particularly the case of cowpeas, whose selling price is more than 20 percent above-average. Seasonally normal short-term labor migration to urban areas and neighboring countries has been underway since September.

    Economic activity in the north, which has been in a slump for the past two years, has picked up to a certain extent but is still slower than usual. Key economic activities for the north include farmwork, construction, petty trade, and livestock sales. The return of IDPs and needed repairs to government and NGO facilities are important drivers of the economic improvement in these areas, although the economy will still need time to recover from the lingering effects of the crisis. Household incomes in this part of the country are below-average.  

    Humanitarian assistance

    Ongoing food assistance programs by humanitarian agencies during the harvest period are bolstering household food stocks from on-farm production and in-kind wage payments from harvesting activities. As of the end of December, approximately 1.4 million people had benefited from food or livelihood asssistance (distributions of small animals, cash transfer payments, market gardening kits, etc.) with more than 60 percent of program recipients living in the northern part of the country. This assistance is going a long way towards easing food insecurity for poor households in the north and the Western Sahel. Seed distributions for rice and market garden crops to small farmers in riverine areas are also bolstering local production, which is an essential resource for area households. Refugees and IDPs are continuing to return to their homes with assistance (transportation services, food, tools) from the government and humanitarian agencies to help facilitate their reintegration.

    Assumptions

    The most-likely food security scenario for January to June 2014 was established based on the following underlying national assumptions:

    • Security situation: Security conditions in the north will remain stable, sustaining the area’s economic recovery and improving trade. However, with the continued presence of rebel groups in the Kidal area, crime will continue to disrupt shipments of commodities, causing suppliers to proceed with caution and negatively affecting trade volumes.  
    • Crop production: In general, prospects for off-season cereal and market garden crops are average, except for on the Dogon Plateau, where output will range from 40 to more than 60 percent below-average, and in certain riverine areas of Timbuktu. Ongoing harvests of market garden crops will continue through March. As usual, the wheat harvest is expected to take place in March/April and the rice harvest in June/July. Distributions of input assistance to farmers across the country by the FAO, ICRC, and other NGOs will ensure above-average levels of crop production by corresponding recipients.
    • Household stocks: Household food stocks in most parts of the country will deplete normally this year. However, very poor and poor agropastoral households in the Western Sahel, the riverbelt area of the Timbuktu and Gao regions, and on the Dogon Plateau will become market dependant by January/February, compared to March/April during a normal year, due to crop production shortfalls and their effects on household stock.
    • Animal production/herd movements: The scattered pockets of pasture deficits across the Western Sahel and the northern part of the country will precipitate the start of the lean season in pastoral areas and trigger unusual herd movements with negative effects on milk production by May-June in bourgou grassland areas and between April and June in emergent wetland areas. However, normal pastoral coping strategies such as selling off the weakest animals and building animal feed stocks for milking animals should prevent unusually high mortality rates. Herd sizes will be slightly smaller than usual, particularly in the case of poor households, due to the residual effects of coping strategies employed during previous crisis years.
    • Cash crop prices: Prices for cash crops (groundnuts, cowpeas, and fonio) will remain above average throughout the outlook period, boosting incomes for agricultural households.
    • Institutional stock-building: Institutional procurements of approximately 31,000 metric tons of cereals will be made during the first quarter of the year to rebuild the national security stock. In addition, procurements by humanitarian organizations will occur throughout the outlook period, as funding becomes availability. Though not as high as last year, procurement levels will be above-average. As usual for time of the year, these institutional stock-building activities will put pressure on cereal demand.
    • Cereal prices: Driven by generally adequate market supplies, cereal price movements, particularly for millet, will follow normal seasonal trends, although prices will remain about five and 15 percent above the five-year average throughout the outlook period. More precisely, prices will be stable between January and February before moving steadily upwards between March and the next main harvest in October 2014. The steepest price increases will be on markets in northern areas and the Western Sahel where crop production was poor. The good cereal availability across the country will be sufficient to meet the increased demand during Ramadan in June without triggering any major price hikes.
    • Livestock prices: Livestock prices will steadily decline in line with seasonal trends as the lean season approaches in March in pastoral areas. However, livestock prices are above-average due to limited market supply as pastoralists are not under pressure to unload their animals at this time. This is due to the positive effects on households of good terms of trade, humanitarian assistance programs, high demand from the coastal states, and good cash crop prices. However, herd thinning measures designed to preserve livestock capital in pasture-deficit areas could drive down local prices between April and May.
    • Migration and population movements: Ongoing labor migration to urban areas of the country and neighboring countries will continue through February. In general, there will be an average income flows from returning workers or from remittances in May and above-average levels of income in areas with poor crop production, where this migration began earlier, before the harvest. This remittance income will enable households to prepare for the next growing season and help improve their market access. The improvement in security conditions and the economic climate in the north will spur the return of IDPs.
    • Start of the 2014 growing season: Based on movements in the ITF between December and January, the rains will begin on schedule, between May and June. Cumulative rainfall totals and distribution will be normal during the 2014 rainy season and will help get agricultural activities for the 2014/15 growing season off to a timely start, as well as promote new pasture growth.
    • Economic activities/income: The reopening of government offices and the return of refugees and IDPs will bolster the revitalization of economic activities (trade, transportation, small trades, etc.) in the northern part of the country. The stream of income from these activities, though still below-average, will improve market access for poor households throughout the outlook period. The jump-starting of farming activities in May-June will provide poor households in crop-growing areas with a potential source of food and income.
    • Humanitarian programs: Ongoing humanitarian food and nonfood assistance programs for poor households in the northern part of the country will be scaled down due to funding levels that will be lower than last year.  Recovery programs mounted in the south (providing assistance in the form of seeds and small farm implements) as part of livelihood-building efforts will continue in all areas affected by poor crop production. In addition, the government subsidy program in June will provide farmers with agricultural inputs for their crops.

    Most likely food security outcomes

    Southern Mali
    Ongoing harvests will ensure food availability for most households between January and March, if not until April. These households will then be dependent on market purchasing to meet their food needs between May and the end of the lean season in September. However, the majority will be able to maintain their food access with normal levels of income from sales of cash crops, market garden crops, and livestock, labor migration, and wage labor relating to land preparations for the upcoming growing season. Thus, most households in the southern part of the country will be able to meet their food and nonfood needs between January and June and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

    However, as will be discussed below in the areas of concern section, the large crop production shortfall due to rainfall anomalies and pests will cause at least 20 percent of households in Bandiagara, northern Kayes, and Koulikoro market dependent longer than usual and will prompt them to resort to unusual coping strategies (increased consumption of leaves and wild plant foods, earlier than usual migration to large urban areas, etc.) in order to meet their food needs. These households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between March and June. In addition, most poor households in these areas will, most likely, continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between the end of the outlook period in June and the end of the lean season in September. However, pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity can be expected in the worst-off areas, but will not affect more than 20 percent of the population.

    Northern Mali
    The normalization of economic activity with the return of IDPs, the reopening of government offices, and the operation of humanitarian food and livelihood assistance programs will help improve socioeconomic conditions in northern areas. However, crop production shortfalls, below-average incomes in the aftermath of the crisis in this area, and the continued high market prices of food will make it difficult for very poor and poor agropastoral households to meet their food needs due to their heavy market dependence by as early as January-February, instead of by March-April as in a normal year. Good terms of trade, milk production, and average incomes from the tending livestock will help enable households in northern pastoral areas to meet their food needs through February-March. However, with their limited livestock capital, the depreciation in the market value of their animals with the beginning of the lean season in March and an increase in market cereal prices by more than 20 percent will curtail poor households’ market access. In addition, their reduced incomes from artisanal activities, local labor, etc. will make poor households more reliant than usual on strategies such as borrowing or reducing other expenditures in favor of food purchases to meet their food needs. However, food assistance and cash transfer programs by humanitarian agencies between February and June should keep food insecurity levels at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels.


    Areas of concern

    Dogon Plateau:  Livelihood Zone 5 (millet, shallots, wild foods, and tourism)

    Current situation

    Harvests of rainfed cereal crops and pulses across this area are practically completed. Crop yields on its escarpment are more than 50 percent below-normal due to the drought and are more or less average on the plain. Market gardening activities for a second production cycle are underway in areas with reservoirs with enough remaining water to make these farming activities possible. The first market gardening harvests in November were normal, furnishing farmers with above-average levels of income from the sale of shallots, the main crop grown in this area, at prices that are 25 percent above average.  

    Pastoral conditions across the area are average. Existing pasture resources, bolstered by crop residues from recent harvests, are providing transhumant animals returning from seasonal grazing lands and heading to bourgou pastures along the Niger River with sufficient food to sustain an average level of production. Normal herd movements to the « Seno » area or bourgou pastures are already in progress.

    The usual flow of labor migration to the « Seno » and Niger Delta areas for harvesting activities is producing large quantities of food for these households. The sale of cereal crops and pulses received as in-kind wages is also an income source for poor households. Migration volumes to these areas are larger than usual as households attempt to offset the effects of poor crop production.

    Cereal availability is average on local markets. Supplies are larger than last month as cereal crops from regular source markets in Bankass, Koro, and Mopti (in the case of rice) gradually make their way to local markets. Despite crop production, demand is still seasonally low at this time of the year. Prices for millet, the cereal of choice for households in this area, are approximately 10 percent lower than last month. Prices on the Bandiagara market are down from 2012 but still approximately 20 percent above-average.

    Business on livestock markets is brisk compared with previous months with the return of transhumant livestock and with the stock-building needs of pastoral, middle-income, and better-off households. Average prices on the Bandiagara market for small ruminants are virtually unchanged from last month while prices for cattle are up by approximately 20 percent.  

    Food and livelihood assistance programs by humanitarian organizations are easing hardships for recipient households. As of the end of December, more than 2,500 residents of the Bandiagara area had been helped by distributions of free food rations and 2,366 had received livelihood assistance.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for January to June 2014 in this area was established based on the following specific assumptions:

    • Market gardening: There will be a sharp decline in income from market gardening activities between now and March due to low water supply levels in the reservoirs used for these activities. As a result, the normal two to three production cycles will be reduced to one or two cycles this year, putting production more than 30 percent below-average. Though prices for these crops are above-average, they are not high enough to offset the effects on household incomes of below-average output for these crops.
    • Migration: For lack of other options, the main coping strategy for poor households in this area during the outlook period will be migration. The continuing larger than usual flow of labor migration will help boost income from this source, which will sustain market access for poor households. However, the limited number of available workers in poor households will prevent these households from fully compensating for their below-average crop harvests with this activity. 
    • Wild plant products: There will be a slight increase in sales revenues from wild plant foods (monkey bread and tamarind fruit), wood, and straw due to an expansion of these activities during the outlook period. However, despite an effort to scale up these activities, the low potential supply of these products will limit earnings from this source. The availability of certain wild plant products (wild grapes and vines) in May-June will generate normal levels of income for households gathering these products.
    • Humanitarian assistance: There will be a larger than usual volume of humanitarian assistance in this area through planned programs designed to serve at-risk residents and IDPs and to deal with the lingering effects of last year’s crisis in northern Mali.
    • Cereal markets: Local markets will be provisioned from their usual supply sources (Bankass for millet; Mopti for millet and rice). However, institutional procurements will trigger seasonal increases in cereal prices on these source markets, whose effects will be transferred to local markets within the zone. In addition, with the below-average levels of local crop production, households in this area will begin to rely on market purchasing to meet their food needs in January, which compares to March in a normal year, creating unusually strong demand.  The effects of this heightened demand on both local markets and their source markets will put prices approximately 20 percent above-average for the entire outlook period.

    Most likely food security outcomes

    The food security situation on the Dogon Plateau will be shaped by trends in market conditions, with local households highly market-dependent between January and June. Crops and income from their usual activities will enable them to maintain their food access without too much difficulty through February. As a result, these households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between January and February.

    As of March, the longer than usual market dependence of area households and the more than 20 percent above-average market prices will require an extra effort on the part of poor households to meet their food needs. With the coping strategies of very poor households (migration, self-employment, and the gathering of wild plant products) limited by household size, they will begin to have difficulty meeting their food and nonfood needs. Though humanitarian assistance will limit the extent of the deterioration in food security outcomes, the previously Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of food insecurity will escalate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels between March and June for most of the population. This is consistent with the results of the household economy analysis (HEA) conducted by FEWS NET in January based on the assumptions outlined above, which showed that very poor households in Bandiagara will face livelihood protection deficits during the 2013/14 consumption year (Figure 4).

    The food security situation of most of the population will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) after the end of the outlook period and throughout the lean season (between July and September). However, pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity can be expected in the worst-off areas, but will affect more than 20 percent of the population.

    Livelihood Zone 3 (Fluvial rice and transhumant livestock rearing)

    Current situation

    Rice harvests are currently underway all across the area. However, rice and cowpea production is 30 percent below-average due to the drought conditions and damages from grain-eating birds during the last rainy season (May through September 2013). As a result, on-farm production will meet household needs for only one to three months this year, compared with three to six months in a normal year. The provision of input assistance and the availability of water are enabling households to expand their market gardening activities this year as a strategy for mitigating the effects of the shortfall in rice production.

    The poor crop production is creating a larger than average flow of labor migration to urban areas within Mali and to neighboring countries. Income levels from nonfarm labor (ex. unskilled jobs and petty trade) are still well below-average with the local economy not yet having fully recovered from last year’s crisis. Distributions of humanitarian assistance in the form of food and equipment to local residents and returning displaced households will continue across the northern part of the country. More than 650,000 people were served by these assistance programs between January and December 2013.

    There is good cereal availability on major source markets in the Timbuktu and Gao regions due to regular shipments by truck and boat from southern Mali and supplies of locally grown rice, millet, and pulses (cowpeas). Supplies of semolina, flour, rice, and pasta from Algeria are also steadily improving with a growing number of regular suppliers returning to the area. Due to the recent harvests, demand is relatively weak at this time although it has improved compared to previous months due to a smaller volume of free food assistance in favor of cash transfer payments, stock-building activities by pastoral households, and the return of refugees and IDPs.  

    Food prices have been stable or are declining slightly. Coarse grain prices (millet/sorghum) are two to five percent lower than last month and are four and two percent below the average in Timbuktu and Gao, respectively. Rice prices are also down from last month and are close to the five-year average on the Timbuktu and Gao markets and approximately 10 percent below-average in Diré. These declining prices are improving household food access but are limiting the investment capacity of farmers who use income from crop sales to cover their expenditures for the upcoming growing season. Prices for imported foods from Algeria such as couscous, for example, are also down from last month by approximately 15 percent, while the price of milk is up by more than 15 percent. Prices for wheat flour are stable.

    The usual herd movements to rice fields and bourgou pastures at this time of year are helping to increase local market supplies of livestock as pastoral households sell animals to meet their cereal needs. Demand has also risen since last month with the better market access for wholesale traders. The combination of these factors and good livestock body conditions has driven up prices from last month, putting them more than 20 percent above-average. Terms of trade for goats/millet are above the average by approximately 20 percent in Timbuktu and 11 percent in Ansongo, which is helping to improve staple food access for pastoral households in this area.

    Assumptions

    The most likely food security scenario for the January to June 2014 in this area was established based on the following specific assumptions:

    • Security situation: Security conditions will remain stable throughout the outlook period. This will improve mobility within the region, help normalize trade flow volumes on local markets, sustaining the areas’ economic recovery, and allowing humanitarian agencies to expand their operations.
    • Nonfarm income sources: With the lingering effects of last year’s crisis on household livelihoods, there will be below-average income levels from off-farm activities such as unskilled local labor and petty trade.
    • Household stocks: The large crop production shortfall will deplete the food stocks of poor households by the end of February, instead of March/April in a normal year. Then poor households will be dependent on market purchases to meet their food needs between March and the end of the outlook period in June.
    • Market garden crops: In general, the outlook for market gardening activities is average to good. With the season getting off to an early start in many areas, prospects are favorable for above-average production.
    • Herd movements: Livestock herds will continue their earlier than normal (since January) movements to bourgou grassland areas due to localized pasture deficits in emergent wetland areas. With rice harvests still underway, this large concentration of animals will degrade the condition of bourgou pastures, causing conflicts and disputes.
    • Fishing: Seasonal fishing activities, which began in December, will increase even more than usual as water levels continue to decline, generating average food and income levels for households along the river.
    • Cereal prices: The stabilization of cereal prices in January will be followed by the usual upward movement in prices beginning in March. The expected increase in prices to more than 20 percent above-average will limit market access of poor households.
    • Humanitarian assistance: Ongoing and scheduled food assistance programs by humanitarian organizations beginning in February 2014 will provide poor households with food supplies and will reduce their market dependence at a time of rising prices.

    Most likely food security outcomes

    Food stocks from on-farm production, though smaller than average, and in-kind wages from harvesting activities will ensure food availability for poor households between January and February. Households will have no difficulty maintaining their food access during this period and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

    However, poor households will have limited food access as of March due to their earlier than usual market dependence by the end of February with the sharp decline in their crop production, fewer available income-earning opportunities, and above-average cereal prices. As a result, they will resort to coping strategies such as choosing the least expensive types of foods, increasing their borrowing, and/or cutting all other types of spending in favor of food purchases. For most households, these strategies will lead to livelihood protection deficits but will not produce survival deficits (Figure 5), which is in line with the results of the household economy analysis  (HEA) conducted by FEWS NET in January of this year based on the assumptions outlined above. The combined effects of these strategies and ongoing humanitarian assistance programs will enable households to meet their minimum food needs between March and the end of the outlook period in June, translating into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. 

    However, certain very poor households in the Bourem, Gao, and Gourma Rharous areas (the worst-off areas), representing less than the required 20 percent of the population required for an area classification, will have difficulty meeting their basic needs between now and the end of the consumption year in September. For these households, even the use of atypical coping strategies will not fully compensate for their poor crop production. As a result, they will likely be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity by June, including food consumption deficits and a deterioration in their nutritional situation.


    Events that might change the outlook

    Table 1: Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario

    Geographic area

    Possible event

    Impact on food security conditions

    Livelihood zones 3 (fluvial rice and transhumant livestock rearing) and 6 (Niger Delta and lake areas)

    Sizeable volumes of input assistance for off-season rice and market garden crops (fertilizer, seeds, and fuel) in January-February

    Input assistance for off-season crops help ease the effects of the production shortfalls, helping households build their resilience and limit the use of negative coping strategies by farmers and poor households dependent on farm labor

    Northern Mali        (Livelihood zones 1, 2, and 3), Niger Delta  (LZ 6), and Sahelian belt (LZ 8)

    Severe damage to pastures from brush fires in February–March

    The reduction in pasture availability due to brush fires in pasture-deficit areas of the north and Western Sahel in February-March produces a harsher than usual lean season in pastoral areas between March and June, adversely affecting animal production (milk, meat, and dairy products). The resulting rise in animal mortality rates will weaken pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods.

    Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal areas, Dogon Plateau, and Sahelian belt

    Limited emergency assistance and resilience-building programs starting in March

     

    The scaling back of emergency assistance and resilience-building programs for at-risk areas could increase the severity of hardships for poor households, forcing them to resort to coping strategies. In addition to livelihood protection deficits, there will larger survival deficits than described in the report.

     

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 4. HEA results for the 2013/14 consumption year – Total incomes (including food and cash) of very poor households - Bandiagara

    Figure 2

    Figure 4. HEA results for the 2013/14 consumption year – Total incomes (including food and cash) of very poor households - Bandiagara

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 5. HEA results for the 2013/14 consumption year – Total incomes (including food and cash) of very poor households - Ga

    Figure 3

    Figure 5. HEA results for the 2013/14 consumption year – Total incomes (including food and cash) of very poor households - Gao

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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