Insecurity is likely to lead to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Ménaka in mid-2023

• Ongoing insecurity in the Liptako Gourma region continues to disrupt or prevent household livelihoods, market functioning, as well as access to basic social services and humanitarian/food assistance. The intensity of the conflict's impact is highest in the Ménaka region, where nearly 40 percent of the population is displaced, and access to sources of income and food, as well as humanitarian assistance, is very limited. From February to May, which coincides with the post-harvest period, a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation is expected in Liptako Gourma. From June to September, which coincides with the lean season (which will start early in May), the number of areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to expand, while the situation in Ménaka is expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Elsewhere in the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity will continue through September due to income from usual activities and average harvests. 

• The trend of worsening insecurity observed since 2022 is likely to continue in the Liptako Gourma region despite the increasing military offensives; however, in certain areas in the center of the country, an improvement is expected due to ongoing negotiations and military operations. At the household level, insecurity will continue to cause displacement, limit or prevent agricultural activities, lead to livestock losses, and reduce other income-generating activities such as agricultural labor. Although food aid increases during the lean season, distributions will likely be limited to accessible areas. Households in inaccessible areas, particularly in Ménaka, will not have access to humanitarian aid and will face significant food consumption deficits or adopt emergency strategies, including the migration of entire households to safer areas in search of food assistance. 

• In areas where livestock is a key source of food and income, the availability of average levels of pastures and water is expected to remain normal as usual, even during the pastoral lean season from April to June in the country. However, in the insecure areas of the north and center of the country, as well as in the northern part of the Ségou region, difficulties in accessing certain pastures and water points due to insecurity will negatively affect the livestock's feeding, and this impact will be felt earlier than usual. The decrease in livestock production and the resulting deterioration in the condition of the animals will reduce the income of farming households in these insecure areas. 

• The average-level production of cereals and off-season crops, along with income from regular activities, should generally support household access to and availability of food in agropastoral areas. However, in the insecure areas of Liptako Gourma in the central and northern parts of the country, the early depletion of stocks, above-average cereal prices, declining incomes, and unfavorable livestock-to-cereal terms of trade will continue to limit poor households' access to food. This is particularly the case in Ménaka and Ansongo, where market functioning is heavily disrupted. 

Security situation: The security situation remains volatile, characterized by an increase in incidents, even spreading to the western part of the country. According to ACLED, there was a nearly 30 percent increase in the number of security incidents (1,366 cases in 2022 compared to 1,052 cases in 2021) from January to December 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, particularly in Ménaka (+162 percent), Gao (+47 percent), and Mopti (+112 percent). Disruptions in the movement of people, goods, and the regular functioning of markets are most severe in border areas with Burkina Faso and Niger, particularly in Ménaka and Gao, leading to the reduction or even cessation of economic activities and humanitarian assistance. The impacts of the conflict are therefore significant and direct on market supply and food prices, as well as on the ability of households in these areas to produce food and earn income to purchase food. In the districts of Bankass, Koro, Djenné, Douentza, and Bandiagara, agricultural production losses and disruptions to economic activities due to insecurity are further reducing the capacity of households to earn income via their already weakened livelihoods which have been affected by insecurity since 2016-2017, making it difficult for them to meet both their food and non-food needs. 

Population movement: The persistence of security incidents continues to lead to population displacements, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area. The number of displaced persons at the end of December 2022 (412,387 people) is slightly down by 6.4 percent compared to September 2022 (440,436 people) (IOM Matrix for Displacement Monitoring (DTM), December 2022) because of the return of some displaced persons given the lull related from military offensives and reconciliations between communities, even with armed groups. The regions of Bandiagara (22%), Mopti (21%), Gao (15%), Timbuktu (13%), Ségou (9%), and Ménaka (7%) are home to the largest number of displaced persons. These displaced persons, mainly living in host households and camps, are experiencing moderate to heavy losses of livelihoods (livestock, labor, harvests/gathering, etc.) and a reduction or even cessation of their economic activities. They mainly rely on donations from host communities and humanitarian assistance as sources of food or they borrow to buy food (IOM DTM, December 2022), especially for those in the inaccessible areas of Ménaka and Ansongo.

Agropastoral production: At the national level, cereal production in 2022 was overall average (+2.9 percent compared to the average, according to the Planning and Statistics Unit/ Rural Development Sector), except in the insecure areas in the center and north, where significant to very significant declines were reported. Off-season crops development (vegetables, flood-recession crops, controlled rice cultivation, etc.) is average to good and continues normally in the usual areas of the Office du Niger and the river valley, given the good water availability in reservoirs. The current average off-season harvests offer average income and food opportunities for farming households in most of Mali. However, the high price of agricultural inputs and insecurity in the central and northern areas have led to a moderate to significant reduction in yields in certain areas of Mopti, Gao, and Ménaka.

In most pastoral and agropastoral areas, the average to good availability of pastures and water points will be normal overall from March to June. In the Liptako Gourma areas and certain regions of the north affected by conflict, however, there are difficulties in livestock access to some pastures due to cattle theft/kidnapping and persecution by armed groups. Insecurity has forced pastoralists to gather their livestock in more secure areas, but this choice has led to atypical concentrations of herds, resulting in feeding difficulties that negatively impact livestock production (milk, cheese, and butter). In addition, the ongoing theft/kidnapping of livestock by armed groups and bandits in insecure areas is reducing pastoral incomes, thereby reducing the purchasing power of pastoral households, particularly in the pastoral areas of the Gao and Ménaka regions.

Based on available information, the animal health situation is relatively stable in the country, although there are suspected outbreaks of symptomatic anthrax in the Kidal region. The usual livestock vaccination campaign against epizootics continues normally across the country with the support of partners such as FAO and the ICRC, except in Liptako Gourma, where disruptions are observed due to insecurity and atypical population displacement. Thus, the risk of epizootics by contagion is high due to the low capacity of technical services to access certain concentration areas. However, due to the lack of technical services in this area, information on disease incidence is not available.

Fish production: The good level of flooding achieved in streams last year (July to November 2022) allowed for successful fish reproduction, which explains the average to above-average catch levels in the usual fishing areas. However, insecurity that limits access to certain fishing areas in the Niger Delta and the river valleys of Timbuktu and Gao reduces the income from this activity due to decreased fish catches, which negatively impacts the purchasing power of fishing households in these areas. It should be noted that fishing activity accounts for about 20 to 40 percent of the caloric needs of poor households in the Niger Delta and just over 10 percent in the river valleys of Gao and Timbuktu. Due to insecurity limiting access to fishing areas, fishing households are migrating to reservoir areas in the Sikasso and Kayes regions to carry out their activities. 

Market functioning and prices: Market supply is improving given the overall average October 2022 harvests in the country. The supply remains sufficient in markets on the whole, except in the insecure areas of Liptako Gourma and the north of the Ségou region, where security disruptions cause dysfunction, leading to significant declines or even halts in supply flows. 

Despite generally average harvests in the country and sufficient market supply of both local and imported goods, the prices of staple foods are above average. The increase in production costs due to significantly above-average agricultural input prices, combined with rising global and regional food prices and supply disruptions in insecure areas, contribute to high inflation, despite the fiscal relief measures provided by the government. The price of staple cereals (millet, sorghum, maize) at the end of February compared to last month was generally stable in regional capital markets. Compared to the five-year average, the price of staple cereals remains above to well above average in regional capital markets, with 94 percent in Ménaka, 52 percent in Sikasso, 50 percent in Koulikoro, 45 percent in Gao, 31 percent in Timbuktu, 29 percent in Mopti, 28 percent in Ségou, 25 percent in Kidal, and 18 percent in Kayes compared to the average. These price levels reduce poor households' adequate access to food. 

As for livestock markets, the supply of livestock is improving because of herds returning from transhumance and the breeders’ need to rebuild their stock. Livestock prices are stable or higher compared to last month given the good body conditions of animals and favorable breeding conditions that discourage further sales. However, distress sales by households in insecure areas, aimed at limiting losses due to theft/kidnapping, contribute to lowering livestock prices compared to average for households in local markets in the pastoral areas of the Gao, Ansongo, and Ménaka districts due to market dysfunction or even shutdowns. The price of goats, which is the most sold animal by poor households to access food, is above average in all regions, including conflict-affected areas where the increase is less pronounced, such as in Gao and Ménaka. This is favorable for generating average to above-average income. Although the rise in livestock prices benefits households with enough livestock to sell, it does not keep pace with the increase in the prices of staple foods. 

The terms of trade for goats/cereals, despite improving last month, remain below the five-year average due to the high prices of cereals. This reduces access to food for pastoral households, particularly in the insecure areas of the north, where pastoral income is declining. Compared with the five-year average, the terms of trade for goat/millet on the pastoral markets monitored (Figure I) are down 44 percent in Ménaka, 38 percent in Rharous, 20 percent in Bourem, 30 percent in Nara, 19 percent in Gao, 18 percent in Timbuktu, and 3 percent in Mopti. This reduces the purchasing power of pastoralists, including their access to food, except in Mopti, where a 13 percent increase is observed.

Humanitarian food aid and livelihood support: Humanitarian support in the form of food and non-food items from the Government and its various partners is continuing, mainly for poor households and displaced persons as part of the rapid response mechanism. By mid-February, more than 95 percent of the 59,061 registered displaced persons had received assistance through food distribution (cereals, legumes, oil, sugar, etc.) or cash, covering 50 to 100 percent of their food needs. The rest of the population is not currently receiving food aid, due to the usual reduction in food aid during the post-harvest period. At the same time, livelihood support through the distribution of livestock feed, small equipment, and agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizers) is being provided by the government and its partners. However, the resurgence of security incidents, which restricts movements, is limiting access to humanitarian assistance for populations in need in some insecure areas of the Gao and Ménaka regions.

Current Food Security Outcomes

Currently, acute food insecurity is concentrated in areas affected by insecurity, including Gao, Kidal, Ménaka, Mopti, and Timbuktu. In the rest of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are observed due to the availability of sufficient food and income from cereal and off-season harvests, livestock sales, fishing, labor, and other typical activities, which allow households to meet their minimum caloric needs. In most parts of the country, agricultural production has been near average and livestock production is normal for the season. Households are generally less dependent on markets for food access at this time of year. As a result, household food consumption is experiencing its usual improvement due to the average availability of cereals, legumes, vegetables, and animal products (milk, cheese, and meat). Regarding food diversity, it is at its maximum for most households at this time given their average access to diversified foods. 

The impacts of the conflict are currently most severe in the Ménaka region and the Ansongo area of the Gao region, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are assessed. The resurgence of insecurity has limited or prevented households from engaging in typical food production and income-generating activities. This has been compounded by the loss of productive assets, physical access constraints to fields and grazing areas, and the very high prices of food products. While displaced households in the main cities (such as Ménaka) are currently receiving food assistance, the rest of the population in the Ménaka region and in the Ansongo district do not have access to food aid. Although survey data and field assessments cannot be conducted in these areas due to insecurity, the available information from the February 2023 ENSAN in accessible areas, the FEWS NET Results Analysis using the Household Economy Approach, key informants and partners, and remote monitoring data all corroborate that households are currently relying on distress livestock sales, increased petty trade, and very limited labor opportunities for income. These activities are insufficient to prevent food consumption gaps, and many households are resorting to negative coping strategies. Some households (less than 20 percent) that have sold or lost all their property due to the conflict, and have not yet migrated to accessible areas, are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Interviews conducted by REACH in October/November 2022 with 1,228 key informants confirmed the deterioration of livelihoods in most of the assessed locations in the Inékar and Andéramboukane areas of the Ménaka region.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are occurring in other insecure areas of the Liptako Gourma region, including the rest of Gao, Kidal, Mopti, and Timbuktu, as well as among flood-affected populations (estimated at about 72,025 people, according to the General Directorate of Civil Protection) in the Niger and Bani River valleys. Although conflict incidents are of concern, the level of conflict is less disruptive to livelihoods and market activity. Most residents in these regions have access to their own food stocks from the main season and off-season harvests, as well as livestock products, labor, and other activities. However, the level of food and income has decreased compared to normal levels due to insecurity, and high food prices are placing additional pressure on household purchasing power. As a result, many households are not able to consume enough food unless they forego or borrow essential non-food expenditures to meet their food and non-food needs.

The new data from the SMART survey reflecting malnutrition outcomes during the post-harvest period were not available at the time of preparing this report. However, the data from July 2022, which coincides with the peak of the lean season, show a high Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence of 10.8 percent at the national level, indicating Serious (GAM threshold: 10-14.9 percent) level classification. The regions with the highest GAM prevalence are Gao (16.1%), Kayes (14.2%), Timbuktu (14.0%), and Ménaka (14.0%). In addition to the deterioration of food consumption during the lean season, limited access to social services in insecure areas, poor food and hygiene practices, and the high prevalence of diseases (diarrhea, acute respiratory infections) explain the elevated trends in GAM across the country. According to historical trends, the improvement in food availability and access following the October harvest typically results in a decline in GAM levels until March/April. However, by the eleventh week of 2023, according to the Nutrition Division, the cumulative admissions for GAM across the country were 30 percent higher than in 2022 for the same period (54,220 cases, including 20,603 severe cases, compared to 41,531 cases, including 23,336 severe cases in 2022). One of the main reasons for the increase in admissions is the increased ability of nutrition services to identify and treat malnourished children in the central and northern regions of the country, as well as in the Kayes region. 

Assumptions 

The most likely scenario from February to September 2023 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• Security situation: Security incidents will continue from February to September, particularly in the Ménaka region, where disturbances will be more intense from February to September. The upward trend in the number of incidents observed in 2022 will also continue in Liptako Gourma despite the increase in military offensives. However, in some localities in the center of the country, due to the military operations underway and the ongoing negotiations between various communities that will continue, a reduction in the number of incidents is expected in this area. Additionally, the perceptible tensions between the transitional authorities and certain political factions, as well as with the leadership of the Tuareg armed groups (CMA), related to the implementation of the peace agreement signed in Algeria are likely to disrupt the social climate. This instability could be exploited by terrorist groups to escalate security incidents.
• Macroeconomic situation: According to the National Institute of Statistics (INSTAT), at the end of January 2023, annual inflation was 6.1 percent, down from the record level of 13.9 percent reached in August 2022. Inflation is expected to remain high in 2023, due to the persistence of elevated production costs, including fuel, as well as the reduced capacity of the government to support subsidies on essential goods and respond to social demands.
• Rainfall: The consensus forecasts from NMME and IRI for February 2023 indicate a high probability of normal to above-normal cumulative rainfall in Mali, particularly in the northeastern regions of the country, where an above-normal situation is expected during the upcoming main agricultural season from May to September 2023. The 2023 rainy season will start on time in May in the south of the country and will then gradually spread northwards at the beginning of July. The rainfall accumulation for the period from June to September will be average to above average.
• Flooding of rivers: The flood level is higher than the average annual level across all rivers and higher than that of last year at the end of December 2022. Forecasts of normal to above-average rainfall are favorable for average flows on the various rivers that serve Mali in the Niger and Senegal River basins from June to September 2023.
• Off-season crops: The average to above-average availability of water at the retention points will allow for average off-season production on the whole, both for vegetable crops and for rice in the irrigated areas. However, the limited availability of agricultural inputs and their high prices, particularly for fertilizers, along with insecurity, will reduce area planted in the northern part of the Office du Niger. This will negatively affect the expected harvests in May/June.
• Agricultural production: The average to above-average total rainfall, along with the expected water flow levels, are favorable for the exploitation of areas at a level similar to the average from June to September 2023. However, the reduction in cultivable areas in insecure areas, along with the high prices of fertilizers and other agricultural inputs, will negatively impact the expected cereal production levels starting in September 2023. The continuation of the government's subsidy program and the support from humanitarian partners (FAO, ICRC, and other NGOs) as part of resilience-building efforts will, in some areas, mitigate producers' access to inputs. Therefore, agricultural area exploitation is expected to be generally close to average from June to September in the country, although areas of reduced cultivation will be observed in insecure areas.
• Animal production: The average to above average availability of pastures and water is favorable for average livestock production (milk, butter, and meat) in the country. However, disruptions in livestock movement in the center and north of the country, along with cattle theft, will reduce production capacities for pastoralists in these areas. The recovery of livestock production will be observed starting in June, thanks to the restoration of favorable breeding conditions that support adequate feeding of the livestock.
• Fish production: The fishing prospects during the February to May fishing season are average to above average in the country's various fisheries given the good flood levels that have enabled proper irrigation of the fish breeding areas. The resumption of the flood in June/July will lead to the seasonal reduction in catches through September.
• Migration: The usual departure of laborers, currently heading to urban centers within the country, gold mining sites, and neighboring countries, will continue until March/April. From May until July, the usual return of agricultural labor activities will be observed. Despite the higher number of laborers leaving and staying longer than usual, the difficult economic situation that is less favorable in host areas will prevent an increase in migrant incomes, which are expected to remain close to the average. 
• Labor: The usual non-agricultural labor activities (construction, brickmaking, firewood collection, etc.) and petty trade from February to May, as well as those related to the agricultural season from June to September, will take place normally in the country. However, employment opportunities will be lower than average due to security disruptions in the central and northern regions of the country, particularly in Ménaka and southern Gao, where significant population movements are being observed. Income from labor will be average overall, except in insecure areas where it will be below average. 
• Cereal/livestock flow: Thanks to the overall cereal production being slightly above the five-year average by about 3 percent, a sufficient and average cereal availability is expected to meet consumption demands from February to September 2023. Disruptions in trade flows and market dysfunctions due to insecurity will negatively affect cereal availability in certain parts of the central and northern regions of the country. The same applies to livestock, which will see an improvement in supply from February to April, followed by a decrease from June to September due to the return of transhumant herds. 
• Cereal prices: The current trend of prices being higher than the five-year average is expected to continue from February to September due to the rise in production costs (increased prices of agricultural inputs and labor), low levels of carryover stocks, higher-than-average institutional stock replenishment needs, high transport costs, and demand during the month of Ramadan starting in March. The off-season rice harvests in May/June and the flood-recession crops will help mitigate the inflationary trend of these foods. Despite the export ban on cereals to maintain internal availability, the price trend for cereals will remain above average in main markets through September 2023, although a decrease in price levels will be observed compared to last year. 
• Livestock prices: With favorable breeding conditions, livestock prices are expected to remain at an average to above-average level. A seasonal decline in prices will be observed from April to June, but it will be more pronounced in insecure areas, which, in addition to difficulties accessing pastures, are facing challenges in selling livestock due to the dysfunction of livestock markets. The improvement in breeding conditions starting in July will lead to the usual seasonal increase in prices. Due to high cereal prices, the terms of trade between livestock and cereals, despite their improvement, will remain below average in these areas. 
• Institutional purchases: Due to the very low level of institutional stocks for humanitarian assistance in 2023, the government, as part of the replenishment of the national security stock of OPAM, will purchase more than 30,000 metric tons of millet/sorghum and rice between February and June 2023. In addition to these purchases, those made by the WFP and other humanitarian organizations during 2023 as part of the National Response Plan should also be taken into account. Institutional purchase needs will be above average, even though cash transfers are increasingly favored, particularly by humanitarian agencies. 
• Food and livelihoods humanitarian assistance: From February to May, food assistance will primarily target displaced households, which represent less than 25 percent of the population in most of the affected districts. The displaced population that is expected to receive assistance will represent just over 25 percent of the total population in the Ménaka region. Food aid will reach significant levels during the lean season from May to September. The national response plan includes monthly food assistance with a complete ration covering 2,100 kilocalories for just over 1,200,000 people, primarily those identified as being in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity by the Cadre harmonisé. These individuals are mainly located in the regions of Mopti, Timbuktu, Gao, and Ménaka from June to September 2023. Due to the persistence of security incidents, humanitarian access will remain a challenge, particularly in the Ménaka region and areas along the border with Burkina Faso. Support for strengthening resilience in terms of agricultural inputs for the new farming season, especially for poor households with limited access to inputs, will also remain a challenge. 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

Acute food insecurity is expected to remain localized in conflict-affected areas. In the rest of the country, food and income will be sufficient to support an adequate minimum food consumption given the availability of average 2022 harvests and 2023 off-season crops, as well as the diversity of food products (vegetable, fish, and dairy products) in agropastoral areas. Overall average food availability in the country will reduce households' reliance on atypical coping strategies, despite food prices being above average. The prevalence of global acute malnutrition, which was 10.8 percent at the national level in July 2022, is also expected to improve due to better household food access through their own production, in-kind payments, and income from regular activities. Additionally, the level of acute malnutrition in these regions is expected to follow normal seasonal trends, mainly driven by non-food factors, such as the increased incidence of diseases during the rainy season. As a result, the current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity for the majority of households in the country will continue through September 2023.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is expected in most of the insecure areas of northern and central Mali, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area of Mopti, Gao, Kidal, and Timbuktu, during the rest of the post-harvest period, which will continue through April. However, acute food insecurity levels are expected to increase between May and September, with an early onset of the lean season expected in May. The early lean season, resulting from the early depletion of household stocks from the significant decline in agricultural production linked to insecurity during the past season, will be particularly felt in areas along the border with Burkina Faso. A deterioration into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected between June and September. In these specific areas, households will face greater difficulties accessing food due to the negative impact of insecurity on labor demand and market functioning. This will lead households to intensify atypical coping strategies, such as increased migration, higher livestock sales, reduced food and non-food expenditures, and reliance on borrowing. 

In the Ménaka area and southern Gao and Ansongo, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is expected during the rest of the post-harvest period through April. Between June and September, the increase in humanitarian aid will be crucial to mitigate food consumption gaps and negative coping strategies for populations in accessible areas. However, an increase in the number of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in inaccessible areas is expected. In Ménaka, this population is expected to account for more than 20 percent of the population, resulting in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the region. Most poor households living in inaccessible areas will have to resort to crisis or emergency strategies due to the ongoing likelihood of livestock thefts/abductions, the halt of economic activities linked to mass population displacements, and disruptions in trade flows caused by road hijackings and market dysfunction. These strategies may include selling productive assets, begging, selling the last remaining female livestock, or migrating the entire household to safer areas. According to the ENSAN survey from February 2023, some households were already starting to use these strategies or were experiencing poor food consumption. In addition, the context of difficult household access to social and health structures and humanitarian assistance will contribute to the more marked than average deterioration in the already concerning nutritional situation. 

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Ménaka region/ Livelihood zones ML01 (Nomadism and trans-Saharan trade), ML02 (Northern livestock farming), and ML04 (Livestock, millet, and remittances in the center of the country) (Figure 2) 

Current Situation

Security situation/population movement: The resurgence of attacks by armed groups, primarily targeting civilians in the regions of Ménaka and Gao, has led to a worsening of the already precarious socioeconomic situation. Ménaka is one of the regions most affected by the conflict, particularly the municipalities of Anderamboukane, Inekar, and much of Ménaka. According to ACLED, the number of incidents from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 was 164.5 percent higher than the same period in 2021 in Ménaka. The degradation of livelihoods due to the cessation of economic activities and theft/kidnapping of goods, especially livestock, significantly affects household access to their usual sources of income and food, and even to humanitarian assistance outside the protected area of Ménaka city. 

The continued significant displacement of populations, particularly in the municipalities of Inekar, Alata, and Anderamboukane, mirrors the progression of attacks. Most of the affected households have been displaced to the city of Ménaka, where they can access humanitarian aid and other sources of food and income. In December 2022, according to the DTM report, 30,920 people, or 37 percent of the population of Ménaka, were displaced, representing a 4 percent increase compared to September 2022. These displaced persons are experiencing a significant deterioration in their livelihoods, are in need of food and non-food assistance, and largely depend on humanitarian aid and/or support from relatives/friends. Although information is limited, it is estimated that more than 20 percent of the population remains in areas that are largely inaccessible to humanitarian workers due to the ongoing conflict.

Changes in livelihoods: There are three livelihood zones in the Ménaka region. Although the relative importance of each source of food and income varies by area, the most significant sources of income for poor households are labor (both agricultural and non-agricultural), livestock and animal product sales, crop sales, forestry, and migration. Currently, most household economic activities remain severely disrupted due to persistent insecurity. Livestock thefts/abductions, the closure of markets, and the decline in job opportunities are driving households to move to safer areas such as Ménaka, Andéramboukane, Gao, and Ansongo. The intensification of migration by laborers, including heads of households, and the excessive sale of livestock, including the sale of the last remaining female livestock for some households, continue in order for these households to meet their food and non-food needs. According to the ENSAN of October 2022, in Ménaka, 29.9 percent of households sold their last remaining female livestock. Given that the situation has only worsened since October, it is expected that the proportion of the population without livestock has increased.

Opportunities for logging, charcoal production, and crafts sales in markets, which are sources of income for households, are facing a decline due to restrictions on movement and wild food gathering for displaced populations, particularly in areas most affected by insecurity. Furthermore, activities such as livestock trading, straw sales, and petty trade remain heavily affected by insecurity, resulting in income levels that are significantly below average. Overall, income from labor and these activities is insufficient to allow households adequate access to food in markets given the very high prices of staple foods compared to average.

Key informants report that reliance on both in-kind and cash borrowing from relatives is more pronounced than in a normal year, but it is insufficient to meet needs due to the challenging local context affecting everyone. According to the ENSAN survey from October 2022, 61.1 percent of households in Ménaka have resorted to borrowing more money than usual due to difficulties in accessing food. The presence of displaced persons in the sites within the city and its surroundings, representing about 37 percent of the population in the Ménaka region, with precarious livelihoods, constitutes a burden for the host community. They remain dependent on food assistance as well as social support in this challenging economic context. 

Agropastoral production: The 2022 millet production and harvest of wild food products saw a significant decline due to the resurgence of insecurity, which limited both the area planted and the areas harvested during the main and off-seasons. In the municipalities of Inékar, Andéramboukane, and Ménaka (Ménaka), the threat of attacks reduces households' ability to travel beyond the villages' security zones to gather wild fonio and firewood. Vegetable-growing activities are ongoing, but with a low level of area cultivated due to the significant population displacements in the area. The vegetable harvests, which are below average, will contribute less than usual to household food consumption and income. Despite satisfactory livestock conditions (pastures and water points) in the area, disruptions in herd movement due to insecurity have led to atypical concentrations of livestock in safer pastures, particularly in the municipalities of Tidermène and Ménaka, as well as in the river valley in Gao and Ansongo. The early degradation of pasture in these areas, caused by the atypical concentration of livestock, negatively impacts herd nutrition and consequently pastoral incomes because of decreased production and animal market value.

Markets: Market supply of cereals is experiencing significant disruptions, including complete breakdowns in supply, particularly along the border strip with Niger, due to hijackings along road routes, which lead to truck drivers abandoning their transportation. Market supply of cereals in Ménaka, Tidermène, and Andéramboukane is sufficient, thanks to more regular accessibility to these municipalities, where disruptions are less significant. Elsewhere, such as in Inekar, Azagarane, Tagalat markets, it is insufficient as a result of the difficulties of physical access to the markets. Flows with Algeria for manufactured products (such as pasta, powdered milk, sugar, flour, and vegetable oil) continue, as well as with Niger (millet), although at a significantly reduced level compared to normal. Difficulties in accessing markets, along with the decline in the supply of cereals and imported foods, are driving high price trends in markets. The price of millet has remained stable through the end of February compared to the previous month in Gao, the main source of supply for the area, as well as in Ansongo and Ménaka. Compared to the five-year average, the price of millet is significantly higher: 45 percent higher in Gao, 60 percent higher in Ansongo, and 94 percent higher in Ménaka. The high prices of staple foods and the reduction in income sources are decreasing household purchasing power and their access to sufficient food. 

For livestock, prices are overall higher compared to the five-year average due to the decline in supply, the rising costs of animal husbandry (fodder, water, protection against theft), and general inflation. In February, the price of goats, most commonly sold by poor households, rose by 7 percent in Ménaka, 19 percent in Ansongo, and 18 percent in Gao. However, these price increases are not enough to offset the rise in cereal prices. The terms of trade between goats and millet have deteriorated compared to the five-year average, with a decrease of 15 percent in Ansongo, 19 percent in Gao, and 44 percent in Ménaka. This limits pastoral households' access to cereals. Furthermore, key informants indicate that most poor households have very limited or no livestock due to atypical sales during the past season or livestock losses linked to theft and looting by armed groups in the region. 

Humanitarian assistance: At the end of 2022, food and non-food assistance from humanitarian actors through the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) was provided monthly to displaced households in the nearby sites and in the main host cities, notably Ménaka and Andéramboukane in the Ménaka region, as well as in neighboring host cities of Ansongo and Gao. Between October and December 2022, according to the Food Security Cluster, more than 50 percent of the population received food assistance, representing a higher proportion during the post-harvest season. These food assistance programs, which covered between 50 and 100 percent of their caloric needs according to key informants, helped mitigate the extent of food consumption deficits among beneficiaries during this period. In January and February, assistance through the RRM continued at low levels, primarily reaching displaced households in accessible areas (i.e., assistance was provided to less than 25 percent of the population of Ménaka). However, the difficulties humanitarian actors face in accessing certain remote areas prevent them from adequately assisting those in need in these inaccessible zones. It should be noted that food assistance generally decreases during the post-harvest period from September to March/April, then increases to cover the pastoral and agricultural lean periods through September. The distributions in October and December were ad hoc assistance primarily for displaced persons under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM). These may also include assistance planned during the lean season, but for various reasons they are carried out in December.

Assumptions 

In addition to the assumptions at national level, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:

• Security situation/population movement: The desire to reclaim control of the area and the infighting over territorial positioning between armed groups will continue to disrupt stability in the region. Persecutions of civilian populations, looting of property, and atypical movements of people are likely to continue at similar levels to last year, likely peaking in July. During the rainy season, a reduction in incidents is expected, however, they will remain above average. This will reduce humanitarian access from February to September 2023. At times, military offensives will be able to calm the situation, however not prevent the continuation of abuses against civilians and their property.
• Market supplies and cereal prices: Difficulties in accessing markets due to security disruptions and high transportation costs will reduce trade flows from February to September 2023 compared to normal levels. The price of millet and imported foods will remain more than 40 percent higher than the five-year average in Gao and Ansongo markets, with a more pronounced increase in Ménaka, according to FEWS NET's price projection methodology. 
• Pastoral income/livestock production: The early degradation of livestock conditions in pastoral areas will lead to an early lean season for livestock, reducing the availability of animal products and negatively affecting the body conditions of animals from March to June. The resulting decrease in animal products will reduce pastoral income compared to the average, as well as food consumption for households, particularly the poorest ones, for whom excessive sales and thefts have significantly reduced herd sizes. Starting in July/August, the recovery of livestock production and the improvement in the condition of animals, due to the restoration of livestock conditions, will enhance food consumption and income for pastoralists. Despite the challenges of the pastoral lean season, livestock prices will remain above average due to the reduced supply linked to market access difficulties and local demand as well as demand during Ramadan and Tabaski, except in inaccessible areas. 
• Food humanitarian assistance: From February to May, ad hoc food assistance will continue, primarily for displaced households and some poor households, reaching nearly 40 percent of the population, according to the RRM response plan. Assistance will likely be concentrated in the accessible areas of Ménaka, including the cities of Andéramboukane, Tidermène, Ansongo, and Gao, due to difficulties in humanitarian access to inaccessible areas along the border with Niger. During the lean season from June to August, monthly food aid providing 2,100 kilocalories will be provided to 47,629 people in Ménaka (57 percent of the region's population), according to the government's 2022/23 national response plan in collaboration with humanitarian partners. This population was identified through the analysis of the Cadre harmonisé in November 2022.
• Humanitarian assistance to livelihoods: Livelihood support in the pastoral sector, through livestock feed donations, will take place from March to June, while livestock vaccinations will continue throughout the duration of the scenario.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

The current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes will continue through May 2023. Households in accessible areas are expected to have better access to income and food than households that remain in conflict-affected, inaccessible areas. During this period, it is expected that the majority of the population will rely on market purchases, livestock products, harvested crops, and wild food harvesting, and even off-season crops for some populations. However, the decline in labor income, the decrease in livestock production, the early depletion of stocks due to a significant drop in agricultural output, the rise in cereal prices, and the deterioration of the terms of trade between livestock and cereals hinder households' adequate access to food, particularly for poor households. Only certain displaced households, which lack their usual sources of food and income, are expected to receive food assistance to mitigate their consumption deficits. Poor households unable to meet their food needs are resorting atypically to in-kind and cash borrowing from relatives and/or friends, reducing the volume and quality of meals, and excessively selling livestock for those who still have it. It is expected that an increasing number of households in conflict-affected areas will migrate with their entire household to areas where they can receive aid, primarily to the city of Ménaka.

From June to September, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected. The population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will be primarily concentrated in inaccessible areas (comprising between 20 and 30 percent of the total population of the area), notably the municipalities of Anderamboukane and Inékar. This period coincides with the peak of the lean season, when households deplete their food stocks; at the same time, they face a significant reduction or even the cessation of income-generating opportunities, a rise in cereal prices, and a decrease in purchasing power. Although it is anticipated that nearly 60 percent of the population will receive food assistance, this assistance will be concentrated in the municipalities of Ménaka and the city of Anderamboukane. In these areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will likely be the highest phase as food assistance will avoid more severe food consumption deficits. Households in inaccessible areas will not have access to humanitarian aid, and they will face significant food consumption deficits or adopt emergency strategies. It is expected that this population will deplete or liquidate its assets and will be forced to migrate further, to the city of Ménaka or elsewhere, such as to Kidal, Anderamboukane, and Niger, in hopes of receiving assistance. Additionally, some poor households lack the capacity to leave inaccessible areas due to transportation difficulties (lack of donkeys or motorcycles) or the lack of financial means to pay for their journey to the city of Ménaka or elsewhere to access assistance. 

The sharp reduction in the quality and quantity of meals, and difficulties in accessing basic social services, will worsen the already critical nutritional situation according to the June/July 2022 SMART survey, which gives a global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence of 14.0 percent, indicating a Serious (10.0-14.9 percent GAM weight for height [WHZ]) level in the Ménaka region. If the inaccessible population maintains food consumption gaps for a prolonged period, this is likely to lead to an increase in cases of severe acute malnutrition and high levels of mortality.

Bandiagara Region/ Koro and Douentza districts/ Livelihoods Zones ML13: Central-east millet and livestock (Figure 3)

Current Situation

Security situation/population movement: The attacks by armed groups against civilian populations, the placement of explosive devices, clashes between armed groups, and robberies on roadways continue and are disrupting livelihoods, limiting households' access to main food and income sources, and causing atypical population displacement. The border area with Burkina Faso is the most affected by the conflict (north of Douentza, north of Koro, north of Bandiagara). By the end of December 2022, according to the DTM report, 12,265 displaced persons, representing 3.2 percent of the population, were recorded in the Douentza region, and 92,112 displaced persons, representing 6.3 percent of the population, in the Bandiagara region, including the Koro district. The decline in income-generating activities, looting and theft of livestock and crops, the multiple atypical displacements of people, and loss of life make it increasingly difficult for households to meet their minimum food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. Displaced households face the greatest difficulties in meeting their food and non-food needs, and their influx into host communities places pressure on available resources.

Agropastoral production: The direct effects of insecurity on agricultural production vary within the livelihoods zone. A reduction in cultivated areas is noticeable due to the ongoing population displacement in the area, particularly along the border with Burkina Faso. In this part of Liptako Gourma (north of Douentza, north of Koro, north of Bandiagara), 19 percent of arable land has been abandoned, leading to a decrease in main season production compared to average, according to an analysis based on satellite imagery by the World Food Programme (WFP). As a result, cereal production in 2022 was below average. However, while displaced households that have been forced to abandon their fields do not benefit from the harvest, the majority of the population experiences seasonal improvements in food consumption due to the availability of their own production and products from in-kind payment for harvest work. Overall, average to below-average ongoing off-season harvests of vegetable crops provide average food and income to farming households in areas where security permits.

Overall, average pastures and the availability of crop residues are favorable for the adequate feeding of livestock. The usual descent of livestock to dry season pastures (the wetland grazing area of the delta) is underway, but it is heavily disrupted by insecurity along the border with Burkina Faso, causing atypical movements towards the Ségou region. The availability of milk is low, due to the early departure of livestock from pastoralist population displacement, reducing its contribution to food consumption. 

Markets: Market supply of cereals and legumes remains sufficient overall, despite access difficulties that occasionally reduce trade flows to certain markets, particularly along the border area with Burkina Faso. The seasonal increase in the supply of cereals due to the latest harvests is slowing down and remains below average due to security restrictions. In February, the price of millet, the main cereal, is similar to that of January 2023. Compared to the five-year average, the price of millet has risen by 40 percent in Koro and 33 percent in Douentza, which reduces poor households' access to food in the context of a general decline in household incomes due to the impacts of insecurity. 

Supply in livestock markets is down compared to January due to difficult access to markets, population displacement, and the preference for the more secure markets near to Ségou. Despite the rise in market attendance observed from the intensification of military operations in the area, market functioning remains below average, reducing income opportunities for households working in transportation and trade activities. The price of goats, which is the most sold animal by the poor, has increased by about 19 percent in Douentza and decreased by 11 percent in Koro in February compared to the five-year average. The terms of trade between goats and millet have decreased by 44 percent in Koro and 25 percent in Douentza, reducing access to income for agropastoral households whose herd sizes are limited due to theft, abductions, and excessive sales.

Humanitarian assistance: In January and February, food aid distributions by the government and humanitarian agencies continued in the area, but they were reduced to focus on displaced persons and host populations under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM). It is the main source of food for some households that abandoned everything during their displacement, representing nearly 10 percent of the population. However, it is common for food aid to decrease during the post-harvest period for the remainder of the population. Assistance levels were higher in December 2022, as 148,433 people (over 27 percent of the population) received food aid in the Koro district, and 42,255 people (11 percent of the population) in the Douentza district. 

Information on nutrition and health assistance is limited, but the screening and treatment program for malnutrition cases by the government and humanitarian partners (UNICEF, WFP, etc.) continues. However, the program faces challenges in providing services in insecure locations. It is expected that displaced households who do not receive food aid and/or households remaining in the insecure areas along the border with Burkina Faso will be the most likely to suffer from malnutrition due to reduced access to food and health services.

Assumptions 

In addition to the assumptions at national level, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:

Security situation: The security situation will remain volatile in the Liptako Gourma region, with insecurity primarily concentrated in areas along the border with Burkina Faso from February to September, even if, from July to September, a seasonal drop in incidents is observed due to rain limiting movement. The intensification of military operations and ongoing intercommunity dialogues will continue and will mitigate security incidents in some areas.

Economic activities: The persistence of security incidents in the area will continue to somewhat limit economic opportunities, particularly job opportunities and other activities affected by the impact of insecurity on market functioning. The decline in household incomes tending toward below average will be most significant among displaced populations and those remaining in the insecure areas along the border with Burkina Faso. 

Cereal prices: The seasonal rise in prices will continue due to significant, above average demands, as part of the reconstitution of institutional stocks (OPAM, PAM, and NGOs) from wholesale traders in Mopti and Gao, and even those from neighboring Burkina Faso. According to the FEWS NET projections, taking into account the difficult economic situation and high production costs, the price of millet will remain 25 to 40 percent above the five-year average from February to September 2023, reducing poor households' access. 

Food and livelihoods humanitarian assistance: From February to May, humanitarian agencies are expected to provide one-time food assistance primarily for displaced households and some poor households, which represent less than 25 percent of the population in the various districts. During the lean season from June to August, monthly food aid providing 2,100 kilocalories will be provided to 33,382 people in Koro (6 percent of the district's population) and 121,098 people in Douentza (32 percent of the district's population), according to the government's 2022/23 national response plan in collaboration with humanitarian partners. The same will apply for livelihood support through agricultural inputs (seeds and fertilizers) and small equipment from March to June. However, difficulties in humanitarian access due to insecurity will occasionally disrupt the implementation of humanitarian assistance along the border area with Burkina Faso.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

From February to May, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in this area. Poor households will gradually consume their own food stocks from the harvest during this period. Most of their diet will be cereals, reflecting structurally low dietary diversity. Given that the harvest was below average, it is expected that households will deplete their stocks early and the lean season is expected to start earlier than usual in April. To buy food, poor households will resort to atypical sources of income more than in a normal year, such as increased forest exploitation (charcoal production), migration in search of work, and the sale of livestock. Given that staple food prices will remain above average and insecurity has a negative impact on economic activity, the purchasing power of poor households is therefore reduced. As a result, households will increasingly be unable to access sufficient food without forgoing essential expenditures or resorting to negative coping strategies. It is expected that displaced populations will primarily depend on food aid. Some households affected by the conflict that have poor agricultural production and do not have access to food aid may be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from February to May. 

From June to September 2023, which corresponds to the peak of the lean season, many poor households will no longer be able to meet their minimum calorie needs without resorting to increasingly atypical coping strategies for food consumption and livelihoods. It is expected that more than 20 percent of the population will have food consumption deficits, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. For example, poor households will resort to selling more assets/productive equipment, atypical sales of livestock, borrowing in kind and cash, as well as migration in search of income. To some extent, significant in-kind and cash remittances in the area will help mitigate the reliance on negative coping strategies, especially with the intensification of departures of laborers. Other sources of food and income that will help mitigate the situation include wild harvested foods, in-kind payments for agricultural labor, and the availability of humanitarian food distributions. However, due to limited food consumption and the high prevalence of waterborne diseases, acute malnutrition is expected to be higher than average and will be close to the prevalence of GAM measured in the July 2022 SMART survey, which was 15.71 percent for Douentza (reflecting Critical levels [15-29.9 percent of GAM WHZ]) and 14.25 percent for Koro (reflecting Serious levels [10-14.9 percent of GAM WHZ]).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mali Food Security Outlook February to September 2023: Insecurity is likely to lead to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Ménaka in mid-2023.