Insecurity and rising food prices are reducing households' access to food

• Cereal production in the 2021–2022 growing season will be virtually the same as the five-year average (-6 percent), which will support satisfactory food availability in the country. However, localized crop losses due to drought and/or insecurity have reduced food availability in insecure areas in the center and north, where access to some markets is disrupted.

• Overall-average livestock conditions in the country will support a normal lean season from April to June, except in the western Sahel and in some insecure areas in the center and north, where the lean season will begin early — in February instead of April — due to the lack of grazing and atypical herd concentrations.

• Households' access to cereals is average overall due to the average availability of their own reserves (albeit low in places) and payments in kind. However, ongoing conflict (which negatively affects the economic environment), the decrease in household income, and prices above the five-year average which are reducing the goat/millet terms of trade will continue to negatively affect poor households' food access.

• The western Sahel's food insecurity will deteriorate from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and September, due to the early lean season as a result of rapid stock depletion and the atypical increase in cereal prices, which is hindering poor households' food access. Households in Liptako Gourma will deteriorate from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between April and September 2022, as a result of the negative impacts of insecurity on livelihoods, the use of negative coping strategies to reduce the volume and quality of meals, and the sale of capital goods.

Current Situation

Agropastoral production: Off-season crops are developing normally in the country overall, but poorly in the insecure areas of the Liptako Gourma strip and the north of the Niono cercle, since insecurity has limited access to plots. The current harvests, especially for market gardening, are providing an average income for farming households and improving their diet. Flood-recession crops continue to be grown in the lake and pond areas of Kayes, Tombouctou, Mopti, and Gao. However, the low water level of the lakes and ponds due to insufficient rainfall and insecurity, which limits household access to farms, will reduce flood-recession crop production from February to March (maize, legumes) and rice and millet/sorghum from September. These activities provide average income and food opportunities for the poor households that engage in them.

The average availability of pastureland and watering holes will support a normal lean season in the country, except in the western Sahel strip of Kayes (Kayes, Nioro, Yélimané, Diéma), where transhumant livestock from Mauritania have arrived early and in excessive numbers; and in some insecure areas in the center and north of the country, where disruption to livestock movement is restricting access to some pastoral rangelands with sufficient biomass. This affects the livestock's physical condition. The herds are in the dry-season concentration areas, around year-round watering holes and by the riverside. Transhumant herd movements are normal, albeit with some disruption in the conflict zones to the center and the north of the country, particularly in Liptako Gourma, Ménaka, and the north of Ségou (in the regions of Niono and Macina). Milk production is average to good thanks to average-to-good livestock conditions. The animal health situation is stable overall and the livestock vaccination campaign that began in November is continuing with the support of some humanitarian partners.

Fish production: The fishing season is progressing normally overall. Catches are increasing as normal thanks to the rivers receding and bans being lifted. Fishing households are moving as usual to the fishing grounds of the dams and lakes. Insecurity in the Niger Delta sometimes disrupts fishing, reducing catches and, in turn, fishers' income.

Market operation and prices: Market supplies of local cereals are generally adequate, but supplies of imported cereals are below average due to reduced trade flows following the sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and high transaction costs. Cereal supplies are below average due to major producers retaining stocks and a decrease in production. In addition, insecurity-related market disruption in some production areas in the center and north of the Ségou region is hindering market flows.

The prices of the main cereals consumed at the end of January in the regional capitals (millet, sorghum, and maize) are up everywhere compared to the five-year average, by 63 percent in Ségou, 59 percent in Sikasso, 41 percent in Gao, 38 percent in Mopti, 32 percent in Tombouctou, 28 percent in Kayes, 25 percent in Koulikoro, and 9 percent in Kidal. This is reducing households' access to food.

Livestock market supplies are up from last month overall, especially in the western Sahel and in Liptako Gourma, where both the early lean season linked to poor livestock conditions and market disruption are prompting more sales in the safer markets of neighboring regions, to limit losses due to mortality and looting/theft. Restrictions on exports to Nigeria and border closures are dampening the country's livestock markets.

Livestock prices are overall average to above average, which should help maintain pastoral households' income. At the end of January, the price of goats (the animal most commonly sold by poor households) exceeded the five-year average by 55 percent in Ménaka, 32 percent in Tombouctou and Mopti, 25 percent in Rharous, and 23 percent in Nara. This supports an average to above-average pastoral income for wealthy households that still have stock, while poor households are more limited, with over 30 percent having seen their stock depleted due to high demand since the crisis began in 2012.

Accessibility: Cereal prices (millet, sorghum, maize) are more than 30 percent above the average, limiting poor households' access to food, particularly in insecure areas. Livelihoods are deteriorating because of reduced income opportunities in these insecure areas due to disrupted economic activities and loss of assets (such as livestock and equipment), and also in urban centers due to deteriorated labor to cereal terms of trade and the effects of COVID-19 and the international situation. In the poor-production areas of the western Sahel, in Liptako Gourma, and also in parts of the river valley, rapidly depleting stocks mean households are depending on markets more than usual. The average-to-significant reduction in production in more than 30 percent of villages on the border with Burkina due to insecurity continues to hinder households' food access in these areas. The same is true for households in the north of the Niono cercle. The goat to milk terms of trade (Figure 1) are deteriorating in Gao and Rharous (-24 percent), Mopti (-20 percent), and Ménaka (-4 percent) due to the increase in cereal prices, reducing pastoralist households access to markets. They have improved slightly in Nara (+7 percent), Bourem (+5 percent), and Tombouctou (+4 percent).

Security situation: Military offensives are intensifying in insecure areas of the country where security incidents are continuing. The resulting socio-economic disruptions in the central and northern regions of the country, particularly in Liptako Gourma, are reducing job and income opportunities for households in the area. The loss of assets and the ongoing looting of livestock and harvests linked to these security incidents are damaging livelihoods, hindering households' ability to meet their food and non-food needs. Dysfunctional basic social services and challenges in humanitarian access to the affected areas are increasing households' food insecurity and limiting their ability to rebuild their severely degraded livelihoods. However, the tendency to use military offensives to disperse armed groups will reduce these groups' capacity to cause harm, which will help economic activities recover in the areas concerned.

Population movement: Laborers are leaving for urban centers in Mali and neighboring countries as usual in search of additional income. There has been an atypical increase in the movement of laborers and households in insecure areas in the center and north of the country and in low-production areas. Population displacement in insecure areas continues, with approximately 350,110 people displaced (Commission on Population Movement — CMP, Dec. 2021), 46.6 percent of whom are in the Mopti region alone. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) is down 13 percent from September 2021 and up slightly, by 5 percent, from December 2020. Throughout the country, Malian refugees are continuing to return from Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania.

Food consumption: Food consumption is increasing as usual thanks to the average availability of cereals, legumes, market garden produce, and animal products (milk, cheese, meat). However, the early depletion of stocks in poor-production areas, including the western Sahel, Liptako Gourma, and the Niger River Valley of Gao, led to an early deterioration in food consumption and early recourse to coping strategies (reducing non-food expenditure and preferring the cheapest foods). According to the September 2021 National Food Security and Nutrition Survey (ENSAN), 24.9 percent of the country had a poor or borderline food consumption score; this is expected to improve as usual and be close to the February five-year average, which is around 13.5 percent. Meanwhile, dietary diversity is at its maximum for most households in this period thanks to the availability of a variety of foods. The hunger index is average for the period: 8 percent moderate to severe hunger (ENSAN, September 2021).

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for February to September 2022 is based on the following fundamental assumptions as to how the national context will develop:

• Rainfall/water level: The 2022 rainy season will start on time, in May, in southern Mali in the Sudanese zone. It will gradually move northward, reaching the northernmost part of the Sahelian zone in early July. According to seasonal forecasts, cumulative rainfall will be above average for May to August. The gradual onset of rains from May to June or even mid-July, depending on the climatic zones from the south to the north of the country, will support new herbaceous and woody pasture growth and the replenishment of watering holes to an average to above-average level.
• Off-season crop production: The average harvests under way for market garden crops, and off-season wheat and rice harvests expected in April and June/July, respectively, will increase food supplies and provide average incomes for farming households, except in the Office du Niger area, where reduced acreage due to insecurity will result in below-average production and income from these off-season crops.

Other sources of income and food

• Animal production/herd movement: Average to above-average livestock conditions are supporting average livestock production (milk, butter, meat) in the agricultural areas in the south of the country, while livestock production will be below average in the western Sahel and in insecure areas where pasture is difficult to access. Recovery of livestock conditions from June/July onward will boost animal production. In the insecure areas of the north and Liptako Gourma, security incident-related disruptions will limit herds' access to certain pastures, which will stunt livestock production.
• Fishing: Catch prospects during the current fishing season, which will end in March/April, are average in the country's various fishing areas. More flooding in June/July when the rains begin will reduce catches, as usual.
• Migration: Laborers will continue to move to the country's urban centers, gold-mining sites, and neighboring countries as usual until March (having begun in October), despite the health requirements (vaccination, COVID test within 48 hours) and ECOWAS country border closures. Gold-mining sites will continue as usual to attract a large portion of the workforce from February to June, after which they will officially close. Laborers will return for agricultural activities from April to July. Remittances will generally be below average due to the effects of COVID-19 on economic activities in Mali and host countries, as well as the economic and financial sanctions on the national economy.
• Labor: From February to September, non-agricultural labor and small-trade activities will continue as normal in the country. However, insecurity in Liptako Gourma and the northern regions, the aftermath of COVID-19, and ECOWAS economic sanctions, particularly in urban centers, will limit job opportunities and reduce income from these activities to slightly below average.

Markets

• Cereal/livestock flows: Cereal flows will be average to below average given the country's average production, low carryover stocks, and the cereal export ban. For livestock, while internal flows should not undergo any major change during current movement restrictions related to COVID-19 and border closures, flows to and from Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire will continue to decline until the export ban is lifted. The increase in livestock flows as transhumant herders return will continue until June and will be above average in areas facing difficult livestock conditions.
• Cereal prices: The price trend above the five-year average seen during this post-harvest period should continue from February to September. Strong demand to replenish the national security stock in order to assist those in need from June to September will help maintain pressure on the markets. Off-season harvests of rice and flood-recession crops will reduce pressure on the market and help limit inflation. The price trend for the main cereal in the country (millet), which is 10 to 30 percent above average in the main markets, will continue until September 2022.
• Livestock prices: The above-average price trend for livestock is expected to continue until April/May due to the usual increase in demand during Ramadan, which will take place in April. From April, the usual decline in livestock conditions and deterioration in the livestock's physical condition will cause a seasonal drop in prices. Nevertheless, prices will remain similar to or above average, except in Liptako Gourma and parts of the northern regions where insecurity has caused huge market disruptions. Better livestock conditions from July and demand generated by the Eid al-Adha holiday will cause the usual seasonal price increases.
• Institutional procurement Institutional procurement of more than 60,000 megatons of millet/sorghum, as part of replenishment of the national security stock and humanitarian interventions, and procurements by WFP and other humanitarian organizations in 2022 as part of the national response plan, will be average to above average, although cash transfers are increasingly preferred, particularly by humanitarian agencies. However, poor timing of procurements that have not yet been initiated may exacerbate pressure on markets and push prices higher than expected, which will be amplified by the effects of ECOWAS economic sanctions.

 Other important issues

• Humanitarian action: The national response plan currently being prepared provides for monthly food assistance in the form of half rations, which cover 50 percent of needs, for approximately 1.9 million people (1,841,000 — 9 percent of the population) throughout the country from June to September 2022, particularly in the regions of Mopti (29.1 percent of the population), Tombouctou (16.7 percent), and Gao (31.7 percent). The government's financial difficulties due to the ECOWAS economic and financial sanctions, and difficulties mobilizing funds from the African Risk Capacity (ARC) insurance agency, will affect the level of assistance provided, particularly in the south of the country. Humanitarian partners will struggle to make financial transactions for the same reasons. In addition, humanitarian access challenges in the main anomaly areas will hinder the impact of programmed assistance. While the response plan is still being prepared, given the financial difficulties humanitarian partners are likely to face, and based on past trends and information on the ground, it is assumed that aid will reach at least 25 percent of the population in the areas of Mopti, Gao, and Ménaka, meeting at least 50 percent of their minimum caloric needs.
• Security situation: Security incidents persist in the center and north of the country and have spread to the Ségou region and the western Sahel. Incidents will continue but will be less intense due to the military operations and the various community negotiations in progress. However, the withdrawal of French forces could pave the way for armed groups to regroup in the north of the country, which continues to evade government control. Furthermore, obvious tensions between the transitional authorities and some politicians may disrupt the social climate, which armed groups will exploit to cause further security incidents.
• Population movement: Atypical population movements both to other more secure areas of the zone and to Burkina Faso continue, although there have been 13 percent fewer than in September. At the end of December 2021, more than 350,110 people had been displaced — a 5 percent decrease from December 2020. This downward trend will continue during the outlook period due to intensified military operations and the breaking-up of armed groups in the area.
• Impacts of ECOWAS and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) sanctions: The political situation in Mali is expected to remain tense until September 2022, with demonstrations by "transition opponents" becoming increasingly frequent. The ECOWAS economic and financial sanctions and land and air border closures, which were imposed on Mali for not respecting the initial transition deadline, will play a part in weakening the government's financial capacity to meet the country's vital needs at this difficult time. The increase in the price of imported products, particularly food, despite economic operators' price caps and subsidies, will reduce poor households' access to food.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Average cereal availability during this post-harvest period and average to near-average incomes are supporting average food access for most households, particularly those in agricultural areas. Average availability of animal products (milk, butter, cheese) and market garden products has contributed to the usual increase in food consumption, which has reduced the use of atypical coping strategies for most households. As a result, the majority of households are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and will remain so from February to September 2022. However, rising staple food prices and the deterioration of livelihoods due to the combined effect of insecurity and climate hazards in the insecure areas in the north, center, and western Sahel are reducing poor households' access to markets in these areas. These households, who resorted to strategies of reducing their non-food expenditure and intensifying migration and labor activities earlier than usual, will move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April.

Poor households in the western Sahel and the Niger River Valley, in Tombouctou and Gao, generally rely on a combination of their own production and market purchases at this time of year. The early depletion of their own production two months earlier due to poor rainfall will leave these households atypically dependent on markets. However, staple food prices are expected to be about 30 percent above average, while income sources will be near average to below average due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and conflict-related movement disruptions. Poor households are likely to sell more livestock than usual, but coverage will be below average due to lower terms of trade. Income from labor will bring in additional income for food purchases, as will remittances, but these are unlikely to be sufficient to meet their remaining food needs. Foraged foods and donations will also help, but these are generally only minimally significant food sources and many households will be limited in terms of where they can forage, given conflict-related barriers to free movement. Thus, many poor households are likely to be in Crisis, facing small-to-moderate gaps in food consumption, despite the use of consumption-based coping strategies such as opting for cheaper foods. As a result, poor households in the northern regions of Kayes, Koulikoro, and Ségou will be unable to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical coping strategies and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from March to September 2022. Poor households in the Liptako Gourma area, particularly in the cercles of Bankass, Koro, Ménaka, Douentza, and Gourma Rharous, which are experiencing an early lean season in difficult conditions and a sharp deterioration in livelihoods due to insecurity, will find themselves in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to September 2022.

Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario.