Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity expected in Liptako Gourma and Menaka conflict areas

• The 25.5 percent increase in cereal production compared to the average is favorable for adequate availability, despite security incidents that are affecting the flow of goods to the Central and Northern regions. In addition, below-average cereal prices are resulting in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes for the majority of households.

• The pastoral lean season is expected to be normal overall, except for the Western Sahel strip of Kayes where the lean season began early in February due to a pasture deficit and atypical concentrations of livestock. Average incomes for pastoral households are expected due to the maintenance of average production and livestock condition.

• Households' access to cereals is average overall due to average to above-average availability of own production, albeit low in some areas. In-kind payments and prices of foodstuffs are at or below average on major markets. The terms of trade (TOT) between goats and cereals, which are at or above average, are favorable for average access of pastoral households to the markets.

• The early lean season, due to poor agricultural production in the Western Sahel and Liptako Gourma, coupled with the degradation of livelihoods caused by conflicts and floods, have led poor households to atypically resort to labor, migration, reduction of non-food expenditures, and reliance on humanitarian aid or relatives to meet their food needs. As a result, they will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to April and in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May to September. 

Current Situation

Agropastoral production: The development of off-season crops is generally considered average to good. The ongoing harvests, particularly for vegetable production, provide average incomes to farming households and improve their diet. The installation of flood-recession crops continues in the lakes, and the production outlook is average, except in Kayes, where the low filling of the ponds will reduce expected production by about 30 percent. The ongoing harvests and rice planting in the irrigated areas provide opportunities for income and food for poor households.

Livestock conditions are generally average across the country, except in the Western Sahel strip of Kayes (Kayes, Nioro, Yélimané, Diéma) and in some areas of the Mopti and Timbuktu regions, where grazing deficits are observed. These conditions are favorable for a normal pastoral lean season. The overall body condition of livestock is satisfactory due to the availability of grazing and crop residues, although it is limited in some areas. The typical livestock migrations continue, although disruptions have been observed in the conflict-affected areas of the central and northern parts of the country, particularly in the Liptako Gourma region, Ménaka, and the northern parts of Ségou (Niono, Macina). Dairy production is average to good due to favorable farming conditions. The overall animal health situation is stable, and the livestock vaccination campaign started in November continues with support from some humanitarian partners.

Fishing production: The development of the fishing year is average overall. The receding water levels in rivers and the lifting of protected areas contribute to an increase in fish catches. The movements of fishing households are ongoing as they head to their typical fishing grounds, although they are sometimes disrupted by insecurity.

Market functioning and prices: Overall, cereal supply to the markets is sufficient. The arrival of new harvests and the restocking by large producers and cereal traders contribute to an increase in market supply at average levels, except in certain markets in the Liptako Gourma region, where the recurring security incidents and population displacements lead to market dysfunction. Kidal market, which is typically supplied from Algeria, has average supply and remains dependent on the smooth flow of traffic, which is also influenced by political measures in Algeria and the security situation.

The price of the main cereal consumed at the end of January in the regional capitals compared with the five-year average is similar in Sikasso, Mopti, and Koulikoro (-2 percent), Kidal (+3 percent), and Ségou (-1 percent); down in Mopti (-12 percent); and up in Kayes (+15 percent), Gao (+11 percent), and Timbuktu (+10 percent).

The supply of livestock on the markets is generally increasing, especially in the Western Sahel and Liptako Gourma, where the early pastoral lean period (driven by poor livestock conditions and market dysfunction) is encouraging more sales in the more secure markets of neighboring regions to limit losses from mortalities and theft/raids. The continued limitation of exports to Nigeria is still affecting the dynamism of the markets in Gao.

Livestock prices are average to above average on agricultural markets in the southern part of the country but are similar to or lower than the average in the regions of Mopti, Gao, and Timbuktu for large ruminants due to decreased demand. This is reducing the pastoral income of households. The price of goats at the end of January, the most sold animal by poor households, is up 16 percent in Mopti, 15 percent in Timbuktu, 20 percent in Ménaka, and 9 percent in Gao compared to the five-year average. This is resulting in medium to above-average pastoral income for wealthier households which still have herds, unlike the poor who are limited due to very small herds as a result of heavy sales since the start of the crisis in 2012.

Accessibility: The overall 25.5 percent increase in cereal production compared to the five-year average is favorable for average availability across the country. The average to above-average availability of own production, products from in-kind remuneration, the decrease in cereal prices, and the improvement in the TOT between goats and millet, which are similar to or slightly above the average on the pastoral zone markets (Figure 1), allow the majority of households to access food without major difficulties. However, the average to significant reduction in production in more than 30 percent of villages, particularly in the border area with Burkina Faso due to insecurity, has negatively affected household access to food in these areas.

Food consumption: Food consumption is experiencing its typical improvement due to the average availability of new cereal and legume harvests, as well as horticultural and animal products (milk, cheese, meat). The poor or borderline food consumption score for 18.3 percent of the country, according to the ENSAN report of September 2019, is expected to improve as is typical and approach the average for February from 2015 to 2019, which is around 13.5 percent. Food diversity is at its maximum for most households due to average access to diversified foodstuffs. The hunger index is at the average level for the period, with 8 percent of the population experiencing moderate to severe hunger.

Population movement: The typical departures of able-bodied individuals in search of additional resources continue as normal toward urban centers within the country and neighboring countries. In the central and northern regions of the country, the persistence of security incidents continues to intensify the departure of able-bodied individuals as well as entire households towards safer areas. As of mid-December, the number of displaced persons was estimated to be over 201,000, with 35.6 percent in the Mopti region alone, where arrivals from Burkina Faso and also from Niger in the Ménaka area are also reported. Returns of refugees continue to be recorded across the country. Assistance in food and non-food items is being provided to displaced persons and returnees by the government and humanitarian partners under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM).

Security situation: The security situation remains characterized by ongoing security incidents that negatively impact the socioeconomic environment in the central and northern regions of the country, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area. This reduces employment opportunities and income levels compared to the average for households in the area. The related loss of assets and looting of livestock and ongoing crops leads to the degradation of livelihoods for households in the affected areas. The resulting movement difficulties make it challenging to properly implement humanitarian assistance for struggling poor households, worsening their vulnerability to food insecurity and limiting the rebuilding of their heavily strained livelihoods.

Assumptions 

The most likely food security scenario from February to September 2020 is based on fundamental assumptions, in relation to changes in the national context, which are:

• Rainfall: The differences in views between forecasting models during this period of low evidence prevent a strong hypothesis from being established. The NMME model projects a rather average situation, while IRI forecasts deficits in the central and northern half of the country. In the meantime, pending further evidence in the coming months, we are opting for the 2020 rainy season to start on time in the country, from May in the southern zones, June in the central zones, and progressively later in the northern zones, in line with the seasonal northward movement of the intertropical front. Total rainfall will most likely be close to average. A good distribution of rainfall, both in terms of timing and spatial coverage, is essential to ensure successful agricultural production for the season starting in June 2020. 
• Flooding of rivers: The water levels are continuing to decrease across the various rivers throughout the country. As of January 27, 2020, the river flood levels are lower than the same time last year but higher than the multiyear average at most observation stations. The forecasts for average expected rainfall will be favorable for average flows on the various rivers serving Mali, particularly in the Niger and Senegal river basins. At the level of the ponds, the water levels will continue to recede across the country, and the onset of rains starting in June will facilitate the replenishment of water points to a level that is average to above average.
• Off-season crops: The average development of off-season crops continues, both for market gardening crops and for rice, for which transplanting is underway. The production outlook is average overall, due to the average availability of water in the ponds, lakes, and rivers. The average harvests currently underway for vegetable crops, as well as those expected for the off-season wheat in April and rice in June-July, will improve food availability and the purchasing power of farming households.
• Agricultural production: The normal onset of rains and the continued support in agricultural inputs from the government and partners (seeds, fertilizers), distribution of equipment, and hydro-agricultural developments, are expected to result in average to above-average harvests in the country starting from October 2020. However, insecurity will continue to affect agricultural activities in areas of community conflict, leading to localized declines in production, particularly in the north and center of the country. 
• Livestock movements and livestock production: The herds are in their typical concentration areas, in the grazing fields along the river, around harvest residues, and near permanent water points (wells, ponds). The typical movement of herds towards the wintering concentration areas will be observed starting in June, with the onset of the rains for the new season (June to September). The difficulties in accessing certain grazing areas in conflict zones will negatively impact livestock body conditions. The rebuilding of livestock conditions starting in June will revive animal production.
• Fishing production: The catches for the ongoing season, which will continue until March/April, are average to above average in the country's various fishing areas. The lifting of fishing bans and collective fishing activities taking place from March to April will help increase the catch levels and benefit fishing households, before the rise in water levels in June/July, which typically reduces catches.
• Migration and population movements: The departure of able-bodied individuals towards urban centers within the country, neighboring countries, and towards gold mining sites in the regions of Kayes, Koulikoro, and Sikasso is ongoing. The average resources of in-kind and cash payments sent from February to June and/or brought back by the able-bodied individuals returning from May-June will help households during the agricultural lean season from June to September. The ongoing insecurity in the central and northern regions of the country continues to lead to population displacement. At the end of December, more than 201,000 displaced people had been recorded. These movements will continue at the pace of security disruptions, particularly in the Liptako Gourma area.
• Agricultural and non-agricultural labor: The typical non-agricultural labor activities and petty trade from February to May, as well as those related to the agricultural season from June to September, will take place as normal. The average income from these activities will enable poor households who depend on them to improve their purchasing power. However, in the northern regions and in part of the center, insecurity will continue to negatively impact labor opportunities (e.g., construction, petty trade), resulting in below-average incomes.
• Cereal prices: The typical depletion of stocks for small producers and the requests for stock replenishment from community and institutional sources starting from February-March will contribute to increasing demand in the markets. This will lead to the seasonal price rise from April to September, but the increase will be less pronounced compared to a normal year. The price trend for the main cereal (millet) will remain below or similar to the average on the major markets until September.
• Livestock prices: Cattle prices should remain at an average to above-average level due to favorable livestock conditions. A seasonal decline in prices will be observed in April due to the typical deterioration in livestock conditions caused by the pastoral lean period and continue until June. Prices will then remain average to above average, except on certain markets near conflict zones where the atypical increase in supply has contributed to reduced livestock prices. The improvement in livestock conditions starting in July will contribute to an increase in animal prices. Despite their improvement, the TOT for livestock and cereals will remain close to the average in pastoral areas.
• Institutional purchases: Institutional purchases for the reconstitution of the national security stock by OPAM, amounting to about 50,000 MT of millet/sorghum, along with purchases by the WFP and other humanitarian organizations throughout 2020 under the National Response Plan, will be average to below average due to the prevalence of intervention strategies based on cash/coupon transfers and resilience actions, rather than food distribution.
• Security situation: The unstable security situation is expected to persist in the typical areas, particularly along the country's border with Burkina Faso and Niger (Liptako Gourma), due to the recurrence of communal conflicts, banditry, and military operations. Disruptions in the movement of people and goods, along with the atypical displacement of individuals, casualties, and damage to livelihoods, will continue. Ongoing negotiations and the strengthening of military patrols will help alleviate the circulation difficulties in the area.
• Humanitarian actions: Humanitarian food assistance will continue for displaced populations under the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) and for populations facing food insecurity, particularly from June to September. The national response plan in preparation foresees food assistance and resilience-building for more than 1.0 million people. Support in terms of agricultural inputs for the new farming season and assistance to herders with animal feed and veterinary care in areas with pasture deficits are underway or planned. Support for the reintegration of returned and repatriated populations will continue throughout the duration of the scenario. These resilience-building programs will limit the beneficiaries' reliance on negative coping strategies.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

The average to above-average cereal availability and below to near-average food prices will likely allow the majority of households to access food at an average level, despite localized declines in production in some areas. Although production is low in some areas, the stocks from in-kind and cash payments from harvests, as well as the average income from regular agricultural and non-agricultural labor activities, will enable the majority of poor households to access food without too much difficulty. The poor-to-limited food consumption score of 18.5 percent in September 2019, compared to 20.5 percent in September 2018, shows an improvement compared to the lean season and is close to the average level for the month of February. As a result, the majority of households in the country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from February to September 2020. The prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) at the national level, classified as "high" according to the SMART survey of July 2019 (10 percent), is expected to deteriorate typically starting from March/April due to food strategies, the degradation of hygiene conditions, and the prevalence of respiratory and parasitic diseases from June to September.

However, the early exhaustion of stocks for households in the western Sahel of Kayes and in certain areas along the Niger River in Gao and Timbuktu, due to the significant decline in agricultural production linked to poor rainfall and pest damage, will lead to more market dependence than normal. The atypical reliance on migration, the intensification of labor, and the atypically high sale of livestock to boost overall declining incomes will push poor households into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from March until September 2020. The same will apply to those affected by flooding in other regions, who are struggling to meet both their food needs and the rebuilding of their degraded livelihoods. 

In the areas of insecurity, particularly in the Liptako Gourma region, poor households with declining incomes, especially those in Bankass, Koro, Bandiagara, Douentza, and Ménaka, are experiencing a severe deterioration of their livelihoods which limits their ability to adequately meet both their food and non-food needs. The poor and borderline food consumption score will be above the average typically observed for the period, and the deficit in livelihood protection will further worsen. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from February to April for these households during this period of availability of own harvests, below-average prices, local solidarity, and support from the government and humanitarian agencies will experience a worse-than-average seasonal deterioration from April onwards. The already high recourse to negative coping strategies in September 2019 and the longer than normal market dependence, particularly for displaced households, will result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from May until September 2020.

Livelihood Zones 2 and 4: Northern livestock farming in the Ménaka region (Figure 3)

Current Situation

Pastoral situation: The pastures and water points are considered average overall. Livestock body conditions are also average and conducive to average milk production in the area. However, the reduction in pastoral income due to poor livestock conditions in areas with insecurity-limited access to pastures is limiting households' purchasing power. The ongoing livestock vaccination campaign, supported by some partners (ICRC, FAO) is being hindered by insecurity, limiting vaccination coverage in the area. 

Markets: The supply of cereals from the typical markets in Gao, Niger, and Algeria is average, although a decline has been observed for Niger due to the increase in attacks in recent months. The price of millet is stable on the main markets in the area compared to last month. Compared with the five-year average, it is up 11 percent in Gao, 20 percent in Ménaka, and 9 percent in Ansongo. The TOT for goats and millet were stable compared to last month for Ansongo and Ménaka, and fell by 7 percent in Gao. Compared to the five-year average, the conditions are almost identical to the average across the three markets of Gao, Ansongo, and Ménaka, which is favorable for moderate access to markets by pastoral households. 

Livelihood trends: Sources of income in the area are primarily made up of remittances from migrants who left in large numbers due to the socioeconomic environment, which no longer offers employment opportunities. Other income sources include labor, transportation, brokerage, and straw sales. However, these activities generate overall income that is more than 50 percent lower than the average due to the unstable security situation. The size of the livestock herd is experiencing a significant reduction, even a decapitalization, due to heavy demand on the animals and/or theft and looting incidents. The continued displacement of households, along with the loss of property and the cessation of economic activities, is significantly reducing their livelihoods. The reliance on crisis and emergency strategies by 46.7 percent of households in the area (according to the ENSAN report of September 2019) highlights the difficulties households face in meeting both their food and non-food needs. The low number of marketable livestock due to their depletion among the poor results in below-normal income, despite livestock prices being similar to or above average.

Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance in the form of food and non-food items from various partners continues for both displaced households and host households. However, a significant decrease in operations has been observed due to multiple robberies and looting of humanitarian stores, which is limiting humanitarian access to the area.

Security situation/population movement: The security situation remains characterized by the persistence of security incidents (which have recently escalated along the border area) and an increase in highway robberies, conflicts between armed groups, and military operations, all of which seriously disrupt the movement of people and goods, as well as the functioning of markets. The atypical movements of people, particularly in the border area with Niger, further increase the vulnerability of households that are already struggling. At the end of December 2019, 17,758 displaced persons were registered, according to the Population Movement Commission. These displaced persons are in need of food, CASH, shelter, and NFI assistance. The latest terrorist attacks in Niger have also led to a flow of refugees of more than 1,000 people (nationals and non-nationals) in the region fleeing conflict zones.

Assumptions:

The most likely scenario for food security in the "Northern Livestock" area from February to September 2020 is based on the following specific assumptions:

• Market supplies and cereal prices: The supply of markets with cereals from the typical supply markets in Gao, Niger (for millet and legumes), and Algeria (for rice, pasta, and other foodstuffs such as oil and milk) will continue at the pace of the evolving security situation along the main routes. The price of millet, which rose by 20 percent compared to the average in January, is expected to follow its seasonal trend at a slower pace than normal, with near stability throughout the entire period of the scenario. The same will apply to supply markets, where they will be slightly higher than the five-year average of (5 to 10 percent).
• Pastoral income/Animal production: Animal production, mainly milk and dairy products, will experience their seasonal decline due to the typical deterioration in livestock conditions from March to June. The restoration of breeding conditions starting from June/July due to the onset of the rains will boost milk production and improve household food consumption. The normal pastoral lean season is expected to be favorable for maintaining average livestock body conditions which will in turn keep animal prices at average to above-average levels. However, overall income from the sale of animals and animal products will remain below average due to the reduction in livestock capital, particularly for very poor households.
• Changes in livelihoods: The decline in income opportunities, or even the cessation of certain economic activities due to insecurity in the area, significantly reduces household income below the average. The degradation of assets, losses of property and livestock, and atypical movements force households to resort to negative coping strategies, such as livestock decapitalization, village abandonment, intensive migration, and the reduction of both food and non-food expenditures. Self-employment activities, particularly the sale of handicrafts, are significantly below average due to the reduction in opportunities related to tourism, which has come to a halt due to the jihadist threat. The pressure on livelihoods will intensify, leading to a livelihood protection deficit for 10 percent of the population and a survival deficit for 5 percent of households in agricultural areas from June to September, according to FEWS NET's Outcome Analysis from September 2019. Humanitarian assistance in food and non-food items expected during the lean season (June to September) from the government and humanitarian partners will limit the reliance on crisis and emergency coping strategies.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes 

Cereal prices, which are near to slightly above average, favorable TOT for livestock/cereal, and average availability of household crops, milk, dairy products, and wild produce, promote moderate access to food for households without major difficulty between February and March. Households that resort to intensifying labor activities and reducing non-food expenditures to meet their food needs will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from February to April 2020.  

From May to September, the overall decline in income due to the aftermath of the security crisis on the economic environment, along with the deterioration of the livestock/cereal TOT compared to the average, will limit poor households' access to food, particularly during the early lean season, which will affect households from May to September. Food consumption will experience a more pronounced deterioration than normal due to the early lean season and an increased reliance on strategies to reduce food expenditures. The worst poor food consumption score of 33.6 percent of households in the area, recorded in September 2019 by ENSAN, will be reached or even surpassed due to the greater security disruptions compared to 2019. Households, unable to adequately meet their food needs, will resort to borrowing, reliance on aid from family members, humanitarian organizations, and atypical displacement to more favorable areas. Reductions in meal sizes, and possibly even the number of meals for poor households, will further contribute to the deterioration of the already critical nutritional situation (15.5 percent), according to the WHO threshold (+15 percent). The reliance on crisis and emergency coping strategies by 73.9 percent of households, according to the ENSAN of September 2019, is not expected to improve due to the persistence of insecurity. As a result, households experiencing stressed food insecurity will find themselves in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May to September 2020.
 

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Livelihood Zone 9: Sorghum/Millet Center of Bankass and Koro (Figure 5)

This area includes the municipalities in the Bankass and Koro districts and neighboring municipalities of Douentza and Bandiagara affected by insecurity, where economic activities are highly disrupted, and farming is challenging due to these conflicts. 

Current Situation

Agropastoral production: The average ongoing off-season harvests of vegetable crops provide average incomes to farming households in areas where security and water availability have allowed it. Population movements along the border strip with Burkina Faso have reduced, as with off-season crops, the levels of production in these areas. Cereal harvests are generally average in the area but poor to very poor in the municipalities of the Liptako Gourma area and neighboring areas in the Douentza (Mondoro, Boni), and Bandiagara (Sangha and Barapireli) areas, where more than 30 percent of villages have experienced losses of 30 to 50 percent in area compared to the previous season (2018/19), according to a WFP study. Looting and crop degradation are observed in the area as a result of the conflicts, which reduces the availability of cereals in the area.

Overall, average pastures and the availability of crop residues are favorable for the adequate feeding of livestock. The typical migration of livestock to the dry season pastures (the wetland area of the delta) is underway, but it is heavily disrupted by insecurity in the border area, causing atypical movement towards the Ségou region. The availability of milk is low due to the early departure of livestock linked to the displacement of pastoralist populations.

Markets: Market supply continues, but with a reduction in offerings compared to the average, due to decreased attendance at major markets as a result of robberies, the placement of improvised explosive devices, and killings. A slight improvement in demand is observed compared to the previous month due to military operations in the area, but it remains low in the small markets in the border region where significant disruptions are observed. The price of millet is down by 21 percent compared to the average at the end of January 2020 in Bankass, 12 percent in Bandiagara, and 11 percent in Koro, which is favorable for average household access to food. Goat prices are similar or slightly higher than the five-year average in Bankass, Douentza, Koro, and Bandiagara (+5 percent). Difficult physical access to markets due to insecurity prevents the average opportunities for selling animals, which are sold on-site at prices significantly below normal for the period in municipalities heavily affected by insecurity. Also, the atypical desire to de-stock in order to limit losses from theft/looting lowers animal prices by more than 30 percent below the average, which reduces the income from livestock sales, particularly for displaced households. 

Security situation/population movement: The security situation remains volatile despite the ongoing military operations in the area. The persistence of robberies on roadways, the placement of explosive devices, and clashes between armed groups limit the movement of people and goods in the area. The decline or halt in economic activities, along with looting and theft of livestock and crops, as well as the atypical displacement of people and loss of life are negatively impacting the livelihoods of households in the area and increasing their vulnerability to food insecurity. By the end of December, approximately 71,700 displaced persons had been registered, an increase of 18 percent compared to October 2019, with more than 45,600 displaced persons in the districts of Bankass, Koro, Bandiagara, and Douentza. The loss of assets and economic activities limits households' ability to adequately meet their food and non-food needs, as well as their access to basic social services, which increases the prevalence of diseases and malnutrition.

Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance in food and non-food items provided by the government and humanitarian agencies, particularly for displaced households through the rapid response mechanism and host populations, continues in the area. Assistance is the main source of food for some households that have abandoned everything due to displacement. The screening and management program for malnutrition cases by the government and humanitarian partners (UNICEF, WFP) continues, although with difficulties in some areas due to insecurity; in addition to limited access to food, this further exacerbates the nutritional situation in the area.

Assumptions 

The most likely food security scenario in the conflict zones of the Bankass and Koro districts from February to September 2020 is based on the following specific assumptions:

• Security situation: The security situation in the Liptako Gourma region, which is experiencing an upsurge along the border strip, will continue to record incidents related to attacks by armed groups and robberies in the area, despite the efforts made by the government, its partners, and local community leaders. The situation will remain unstable throughout the projection period, although a decrease in intensity could be observed following ongoing negotiations and operational reorganizations in the concerned countries.
• Economic activities: Disruptions in the movement of people and goods due to insecurity are not conducive to an adequate economic recovery in the area. The ongoing atypical population movements and the resulting disruptions in economic activities provide fewer income opportunities for households, which reduces their income below the average from February to September 2020. The destruction and looting of assets (e.g., livestock, crops) will negatively impact the livelihoods of households that are already facing a protection deficit, affecting 20 percent of households according to FEWS NET's Outcome Analysis from September 2019.
• Cereal prices: The downward trend in cereal prices compared to the average on major markets in the area will continue despite the security disruptions. From April onwards, the seasonal increase will be observed, which will continue until September at a low rate. The trend of below-average prices is expected to continue throughout the projection period due to the below-average decline in demand, especially as the route to Burkina Faso remains highly disrupted by terrorist attacks and military operations.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Although the availability of cereal production is low, the below-average price levels are favorable for moderate food access by households and for dietary diversification for those who rely on the markets during this period. However, the early depletion of stocks, particularly in areas heavily affected by reduced production, will force poor households to rely on markets for longer than normal and adopt coping strategies, which will negatively affect their food consumption. Despite improvement compared to September, the poor food consumption score is expected to remain above average for the month of February (around 20 percent according to the ENSAN surveys of the past five years). Poor households unable to meet their food and non-food needs will resort early to borrowing, atypical migration, and the sale of assets, which increases the livelihood protection deficit. Consequently, poor households in the area will generally face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from February to April 2020, although displaced persons in need of assistance, who do not reach 20 percent to phase the entire area, will be Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) with a need for assistance.

The early depletion of stocks due to a significant decline in agricultural production, along with the longer-than-normal reliance of poor and very poor households on the market, requires resources that exceed their capacity in an environment where overall incomes are declining. Reducing food expenditures by choosing cheaper foods and cutting back on portion sizes or the number of meals for the poorest households will degrade food consumption. The food consumption score will be higher than the average rate for the months of September by 25 percent in Koro and 10 percent in Bankass. The early lean season (starting in April instead of June) will atypically intensify the reliance on the sales of assets/equipment, atypical livestock sales, and dependence on borrowing, remittances from migrants, and assistance for displaced persons. Malnutrition will experience its typical deterioration but more pronounced than in an average year due to the early lean season,] and will be above the prevalence rate measured in the December 2018 SMART survey (10.8 percent, with 2.6 percent of severe cases). Poor households with a livelihood protection deficit, particularly displaced households, that are unable to meet their food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from May until September 2020.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Other Areas of Concern in the Country 

Poor households affected by the floods from July to September 2019, particularly in the regions of Timbuktu, Ménaka, Ségou, Koulikoro, Gao, and the Bamako District (estimated at 80,000 people), will struggle to adequately meet their food needs and rebuild their depleted livelihoods. These poor households affected by the floods, who do not reach the 20 percent threshold required to classify an entire area, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting in March. External support will be necessary to prevent further livelihood degradation.

The lean season, starting one to two months earlier than normal due to the significant decline in agricultural production in the districts of Nioro, Yélimané, Kayes, and northern Diéma, as well as in parts of the river belt in Timbuktu and Gao, is causing poor households to rely on markets for food supplies for an atypically long period. Households in these areas are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from February to April due to their own harvests (even if small), in-kind payments, local solidarity, and below-average cereal prices. Starting in May, the increase in cereal prices and prolonged market dependence will require resources that exceed the capacity of poor households. These households will atypically resort to intensifying manual labor activities, migration, borrowing, the sale of assets, and reducing both non-food and food expenditures (opting for cheaper foods). The average or above-average remittances from migrants and agricultural labor income during the lean season will limit the deterioration of livelihoods and improve households' access to markets. As a result, they will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from May to September.