Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Good pastoral conditions have contributed to improved livestock body conditions and the startup of milk production. This, along with strong livestock demand relating to Tabaski, has increased pastoral incomes compared to previous months. Although many poor pastoral households have atypically low herd sizes at this time, livestock-to-cereal terms of trade are currently above average, which has led to average food access for those who still have animals.

• The agropastoral and pastoral lean seasons are almost over due to green harvests and the availability of animal products. These two factors, along with stable food prices and humanitarian assistance, are contributing to improved food security outcomes, particularly in northern areas. Currently in September, northern populations are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

• Significant material damage (loss of housing, cereal stocks, livestock, and crops) have been reported due to flooding in August and September, particularly in the regions of Segou, Koulikoro, Kayes and Gao. This is having a negative effect on the livelihoods of poor, flood-affected households who will have difficulty both rebuilding their livelihoods and meeting their food needs in the absence of humanitarian assistance between now and June 2016.

• Despite the recent floods, the outlook for this year’s cereal production suggests that harvests will be average to good due to favorable rainfall conditions in agricultural areas. A similar outlook is expected for rangelands in pastoral areas. This will enable good cereal availability and average animal production during the 2015/16 consumption year (October 2015 to September 2016). Consequently, the majority of households will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between September and December 2015.

  For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for July to December 2015.