Key Message Update

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is expected in some areas starting in March

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-ML-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Above-average harvests are ongoing throughout the country, which will provide above-average food availability during the 2015/16 year. Pastoral conditions are also good, which provides a favorable outlook for livestock food availability and for average milk production and animal body conditions. This, in turn, will maintain favorable cereal-to-livestock terms of trade across the country.

  • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity should continue for the majority of agropastoral and pastoral households until the main harvests in October 2016 due to the good availability of food, average to above-average agricultural incomes, food prices that are expected to follow normal seasonal trends, and above-average cereal-to-livestock terms of trade, which will enable average food access for most households.

  • However, flood-affected households across the country will be unable to satisfy both their food needs and costs to rebuild their livelihoods without resorting to atypical coping strategies. Due to an earlier than normal depletion of their food stocks, these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) starting in March 2016.

  • Poor pastoral households in the regions of Tombouctou and Gao saw an atypical decline in their herd sizes during the past two years due to increased livestock deaths and sales. The resulting decline in pastoral incomes will limit their access to food through market purchases and as a result, they will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) starting in March 2016.

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October 2015 to March 2016.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics