The premature market dependence of poor households weakens their food security

• The premature market dependence of poor households in the agropastoral zone and the north one to two months earlier than normal, due to poor crop production, is causing households to scale up their coping strategies to unusually high levels.
• Forage deficits in pastoral areas of the West Sahel and the North have caused reports of unusual herd movements to greener pastures. This will severely reduce animal production and could lead to an abnormally sharp depreciation in the market value of livestock. For pastoralists, this will weaken their purchasing power more than usual between now and the end of the pastoral lean season in June/July.
• The weakened livelihoods of poor pastoral households during this year’s lean season, which will last one month longer than usual or from March to June, and the premature market dependence of agropastoral households in a below-average, post-crisis economic climate, are limiting household market access. Affected poor households are scaling up their coping strategies to unusually high levels in order to meet needs and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of June 2014.

Southern agricultural areas

• The average to good production levels between November and December 2013 in this part of the country should ensure adequate food availability until the next round of harvests. In addition, the average performance of current off-season market garden and cereal crops is strengthening food availability and providing average income-generating opportunities for poor households through crop sales and wage labor.
• Stable prices over the past month at near-average levels are ensuring household market access. Prices for millet, the main cereal crop, are near-average in Kayes and Sikasso and slightly above-average (by five percent) on markets in Ségou, Mopti, and Bamako. Meanwhile, rice prices are similar to or below average. For example, rice prices are approximately nine percent below average in Ségou and five percent below average in Mopti. The normal pursuit of income-generating activities is enabling poor households to earn average incomes and is also helping them maintain their market access.

Southern agropastoral areas, including the Dogon Plateau, Kayes, and the Nara Cercle

• A large 2013/14 cereal production shortfall of over 30 percent due to the effects of a drought in July/August 2013 and pest damages caused households to deplete their food stocks earlier than normal in January/February, instead of March as in a normal year.
• Highly market-dependent poor households are scaling up their coping strategies, such as migrant remittances to Kayes, mass short-term seasonal labor migration to the Western Sahel and to the Dogon Plateau, self-employment activities (the gathering and sale of forest products, the sale of straw, transportation services, and trading), local wage labor, and petty trade, to atypically high levels. Average earnings from these activities are helping households maintain their food access, though households are not currently able to meet certain normal nonfood expenditures, such as investments in production and in improving living conditions.

North-central agropastoral areas, including the Niger River Valley

• Poor rainfall conditions and low water levels in certain northern agropastoral areas resulted in a 2013/14 production shortfall of over 40 percent. In addition, very poor and poor households, who are dependent on paid work such as labor, labor migration, and self-employment for most of their income, have been earning below-average incomes due to the lingering effects of conflict on the local economy. These two factors, combined with high food prices (ex. more than 15 percent above-average prices in Gao) fueled by an unusually strong household demand, are limiting household food access. As a result, this year’s lean season for very poor and poor agropastoral households started unusually early in April/May, compared to June/July in a normal year.
• In pastoral areas, forage deficits in emergent wetland areas of Gao and Timbuktu are limiting the availability of animal products (milk, meat, and butter) to atypically low levels, undermining dietary quality and causing the lean season to start early in March, compared to April in a normal year. This is also creating an unusually large market supply of livestock, which explains the drop in goat prices since last month by approximately 10 percent in Gao. However, prices for small ruminants still remain more than 30 percent above average in Gao and 15 percent above average in Rharous.
• Very poor and poor households have scaled up market gardening activities, fishing, wage labor, and normal migrant remittances to usually high levels. However, incomes from these activities, along with humanitarian assistance, are only enabling households to minimally meet their food needs.

The current situation has not affected the assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely food security scenario for the period from January through June 2014.

• The south is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. Average earnings from normal income-generating activities and above-average earnings from market garden crops are enabling the majority of households to access food without major difficulties. Near-average food prices should not cause households to be unusually dependent on coping strategies to meet their food needs between March and June.
• In southern agropastoral areas that experienced poor crop production this year, poor households will resort to their usual coping strategies to cover food needs. The combination of the income generated by these strategies and the distributions of six months worth of food assistance by WFP on the Dogon Plateau will help maintain food access, but will preclude any type of nonfood spending. These areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between now and the end of June.
• The unusually intensive usage of coping strategies by poor households in north-central agropastoral areas and the river valley (livelihood zone 3) is creating a livelihood protection deficit which, in turn, is heightening poor households’ vulnerability to food insecurity. However, ongoing and funded humanitarian assistance programs should prevent a rise in food insecurity between now and the end of June. Thus, food security outcomes for these households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout this period.