Slight improvement in trade flows to the north from southern supply markets

• Improving trade flows into northern areas of the country with the reopening of major roads to the south and to Niger, along with an influx of humanitarian assistance, is helping to stock markets with adequate supplies of staple foods, particularly in agropastoral areas of the Timbuktu and Gao regions. However, unstable security conditions in the north are a continued threat to humanitarian assistance and commercial activities.

• Prices for millet from southern Mali are 15 to 30 percent lower than last month on the Timbuktu and Gao markets and are at stable but high levels on the Kidal market. Similar to other markets throughout the country, food prices at this market are 10 to 30 percent above the five-year average. 

• The depletion of food stocks, a decline in livestock sales (due to low demand), and a lack of income-generating opportunities for most pastoralists in conflict-affected areas are limiting household food access. A continuation of the status quo will propel pastoral populations in the northern part of the country, who are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2), into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by April.  

Food security at the national-level is generally stable, although it is a source of concern for the north. More specifically:

In southern and central Mali:

• Markets are adequately supplied with staple foods and demand is low due to last season's good harvests.
• Millet, sorghum, and maize prices are stable or up slightly from last month. Compared to the average, millet prices are up seven to 30 percent and rice prices are up five to 18 percent. Prices across southern and central Mali are lower than at the same time last year.
• Demand is growing at southern production markets with the resumption of trade activities to the north. Large procurements on the Ségou, San, and Mopti markets by humanitarian organizations and by neighboring countries rebuilding their national food security reserves are keeping prices high. Though the impact of current institutional procurements is relatively limited due to good crop production last season, they are contributing to inflationary trends at certain markets.
• There are ongoing humanitarian assistance programs for IDPs and their host communities across the south. Some 10,000 households in the Mopti and Ségou regions have benefited from cash transfer programs by OCHA in February. In addition, more than 5,000 households have received assistance in the form of inputs and market gardening development programs by the FAO. Food aid distributions in the Mopti, Ségou, Kayes, and Koulikoro regions are also continuing.

In northern Mali:

• Trade flows are improving with the reopening of major roads connecting the north with its regular supply markets in the south and in Niger and Burkina Faso. Shipments by truck into northern areas are intensifying in response to the normal increase in demand at this time of year with the depletion of local stocks. However, these shipments are still being impacted by the Algerian border closure and continuing security threats, particularly in the Kidal region which is at the center of military operations. Despite the border closure, a very small but steady influx of informal imports (of oil, milk, semolina, pasta, and rice) from Algeria has been observed. The depletion of agropastoral household food stocks from last season's harvests, the slow return of IDPs, and normal levels of demand from pastoral households are increasing the need for food supplies at northern markets.
• Due to improved trade flows, millet prices in Timbuktu and Gao have dropped 16 to 30 percent since January. However compared to the average, millet prices are still up by approximately 23 percent in Timbuktu, 13 percent in Gao, and 28 percent in Rharous. Rice prices have generally been up by less than 15 percent compared to the average, with the exception of Timbuktu were prices are down by nine percent.
• Economic activities in liberated areas are resuming but are still at low levels due to the lack of household income in these areas. The disruption of livestock markets has resulted in a loss of income for pastoralists and casual laborers who depend on livestock-rearing activities. Migrant remittances cannot meet the persisting, above-average requests from households in this region, and many households are incurring unusually large cash and in-kind debts as a way to meet food needs. 
• The off-season growing season is progressing normally with assistance from the government and its food security partners. For example, FAO has been distributing farm inputs to 3,800 recipients in village-level irrigation schemes (PIVs) covering 950 hectares of cropland in the Timbuktu and Douentza regions. In addition, the WFP is distributing food rations to more than 350,000 recipients through partner NGOs. These food and cash assistance programs are improving food availability for target populations. 

Current conditions are consistent with the assumptions used by FEWS NET in developing the most likely food security scenario for the period from January through June 2013. 

• Average food access should keep household food insecurity in the south at Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) levels between March and June. The availability of off-season market gardening produce and cereals (maize, wheat, and irrigated millet) between March and June will improve food security in the south, as well as in the riverine areas of Gao and Timbuktu.
• The depletion of agropastoral household food stocks from last season's harvests in livelihood zone 3 of the Timbuktu and Gao areas will increase these households dependency on market purchases over the next few months. The combined effects of high cereal prices and low purchasing power due to the lack of income-generating opportunities are forcing households to resort to harmful coping strategies, such as reducing the size of their meals. These households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.
• The decline in livestock income due to the disruption of livestock markets and the absence of wholesalers at markets will continue to severely curtail food access for market dependant, pastoral households. A continuation of the status quo will further weaken the already Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security situation of these households, particularly during the ongoing pastoral lean season, and could propel them into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by April.
• An increasing volume of humanitarian assistance is expected over the next few months with the improvement of security conditions in liberated areas. However, low levels of assistance to pastoral areas, where there have been frequent attacks by rebel forces, will make it impossible to adequately meet the needs of pastoral populations although the destocking of herds during the lean season could improve conditions in these areas.