Ongoing insecurity keeps the Ménaka area in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) until October

• In the inaccessible areas of Ménaka, insecurity continues to restrict the movement of people and humanitarian activities. Poor households in inaccessible areas of the Ménaka region (Andéramboukane, Inekar) are likely to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the lean period through the end of September because of theft, looting of goods, the significant decline in economic activity, and use of emergency strategies such as excessive livestock sales and begging. Poor households in other areas of Liptako Gourma who resorted to reducing the volume and number of meals, borrowing, unusual livestock sales, selling productive assets, and receipt of humanitarian aid are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
• Climate forecasts suggest growing confidence in a strong El Niño by the end of 2023. However, based on historical trends, El Niño years do not correlate with any significant rainfall anomalies in Mali. In general, the agricultural season is progressing at an average pace nationwide, though inadequate early-season rainfall distribution raised concerns about delayed crop development in certain regions, including production zones. In addition, difficulty accessing fertilizer will negatively affect agricultural production.
• The security situation remains volatile in the Ménaka, Gao, Timbuktu, and Mopti regions, with an atypical increase in security incidents compared to last month. The continuing unusual displacement of populations, the deterioration in livelihoods through the decline in economic activities, and the theft/looting of goods, all further expose poor households to food insecurity.
• Market supplies remain satisfactory overall, except in insecure areas where disruptions to trade flows are reducing the grain supply in markets more than usual. The 15 to 47 percent rise in staple foods prices compared to the five-year average, particularly grains (millet, sorghum, and maize), in addition to the deterioration in the terms of trade between goats and grains, is reducing food access for pastoral households.

Security: Security incidents have intensified in the center and north of the country, particularly around the Ansongo-Ménaka reserve and in the Andéramboukane Cercle. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), more than 300 incidents by armed groups were reported between July 2022 and July 2023 in the Gao and Ménaka regions, an increase of 63 percent compared to the previous year. According to the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) report, as of April 2023, the estimated number of displaced individuals was 375,539, marking a 1.34 percent increase from April 2022, when the figure was 370,548. This rise has been particularly prominent in the central and northern regions of the country, such as in Ménaka, where the displaced population now constitutes 48 percent of the population. Increasing disruptions to population movements and economic activities because of the recovery by the army of the camps transferred by MINUSMA are causing a moderate to significant deterioration in livelihoods in the Ménaka region, where physical access to many localities, trade flows, and humanitarian access remain a challenge. In addition, at the end of August, a blockade on the cities of Timbuktu and Boni imposed by Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) intimidated and targeted lorries carrying goods from Algeria, Mauritania, and other regions of Mali, in addition to river transport between Gao and Timbuktu. This blockade is disrupting trade flows to these cities and causing a rise in food prices that is reducing access to markets for the poorest people.

Agropastoral season: Between June and July, the poor spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall led to moderate to significant deficits in the south of the country. Cumulative rainfall from May 1 to August 20 was normal to surplus across the country, except in the regions of Sikasso, Ségou, and Koulikoro, and in the west of Timbuktu and the east of Kayes, where there was a deficit (Figure I). The agricultural season was marked by a delay in crop development in many farming areas, including the production basins of Sikasso, Koulikoro, and Ségou, where planting/replanting continued through August due to insufficient and dry periods of rainfall at the start of the season (June/July). According to the National Directorate of Agriculture (DNA), national area planted is similar (-2.3 percent) to that of the same time last year. Crop maintenance is continuing, providing average income and food opportunities for poor households in agricultural areas, and the early maize and groundnut planting harvests are available. Difficulties in accessing mineral fertilizers persist due to the low availability of subsidized fertilizers and high prices (over 30 percent higher than the market average). In the insecure areas in the center and north of the country, the reduction in planted areas due to difficult field access and population displacement are reducing income from agricultural labor.

Pastoral conditions: The replenishment of pastures and watering holes is continuing normally across the country thanks to the continued rain. The physical condition of animals and animal production (milk, butter, and meat) are improving seasonally, which is improving food consumption by pastoral households and income from the sale of livestock and animal products. Livestock movement remains unaffected in most areas, but insecurity in the northern and central regions, such as Ménaka, Ansongo, and the Liptako Gourma area, has led to disruptions caused by kidnappings and armed group attacks. The overall animal health situation is stable, and the vaccination campaign continues with support from humanitarian partners like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and FAO.

Fishing: The seasonal drop in fish catches is due to rising water levels on rivers across the country. Catches remain average overall, except in the insecure areas of Mopti and Gao, where insecurity is making access to certain fishing zones difficult in the Inner Niger Delta, thereby reducing the amount of catches.

Markets and prices: Overall, grain supply in markets remains sufficient, despite a more pronounced seasonal decline compared to an average year. However, in the volatile regions of Ménaka, as well as in the Bankass and Koro Cercles, significant disruptions to the flow of goods have resulted in supply shortages in affected markets. Current restrictions imposed by armed groups near cities in the central and northern regions, like the blockade in Timbuktu in response to the government's efforts to regain MINUSMA-transferred camps, are adversely affecting trade in these areas. The manufacturing sector continues to be affected by the international repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, illustrated by inflationary prices of certain foods (wheat, oil, and sugar), resulting in reduced availability. At the end of July, prices for staple grains were virtually unchanged compared to the previous month, with slight increases in some areas, and lower than last year due to better yields for the 2022 season than in 2021. Compared to the five-year average, the prices of staple grains in markets of the regional capitals (Figure 2) are higher, with increases of 47% in Ménaka, 38% in Sikasso and Gao, 28% in Tombouctou, 18% in Koulikoro, 16% in Ségou, 15% in Mopti, 11% in Kidal, and 7% in Kayes, making them less accessible to poor households.

The livestock supply in markets is experiencing a seasonal decline as animals migrate to winter pastures. This decline is more pronounced in the insecure central and northern regions of the country, where market operations have been severely disrupted and have even come to a halt in certain secondary markets in Ménaka and Gao. The price of livestock is similar to or higher than the five-year average, thanks to a recovery in the physical condition of animals from the replenishment of pastures and watering sources. In markets in insecure areas, the drop in supply in the Gao and Rharous markets, caused by the departure of livestock farmers to more secure areas, contributed to a 25 and 21 percent price rise, respectively, particularly for goats, compared to the five-year average. In Ménaka, there has been a significant increase in emergency sales due to the presence of displaced persons, resulting in a 10 percent drop in goat prices. The deterioration in the terms of trade between goats and grain is having a negative impact on pastoral households' ability to access food because of high grain prices.

Humanitarian aid: The free distribution of food is underway throughout the country, covering at least 50 percent of the caloric needs for 1,175,983 people during the lean season months (June, July, and August), mainly in the form of cash/vouchers. Government and humanitarian partners are stepping up food aid to people identified as food insecure throughout the country during the lean season. At the same time, households, particularly in insecure areas in the center and north of the country, received livelihood support in the form of livestock vaccinations, agricultural inputs, and funds for income-generating activities. However, access to certain insecure areas, such as Ménaka and parts of Liptako Gourma, remains a significant challenge for humanitarian partners, limiting their access to households in need of assistance. Monthly humanitarian food and non-food assistance improves food availability and access for beneficiary households during the lean season.

The assumptions in the June 2023 to January 2024 Food Security Outlook report remain unchanged, with the exception of those updated below:

• Security situation and population movements: The deterioration in the security situation observed since June in the north and center of the country will continue, particularly in the southern strip of Ménaka and Ansongo, due to the government's desire to take back the sites transferred by MINUSMA and from the political crisis in Niger, which will facilitate the movement of armed groups between the two countries. An increase in the number of incidences in these areas is likely. These security incidents, characterized by the planting of explosive devices, the persecution of civilians, and targeted assassinations in the north and center of the country, will continue to disrupt socioeconomic activities and generate a steady increase in the number of displaced persons.

• Grain production: Due to the lack of rain at the start of the season, followed by poor temporal and spatial distribution, a delay in crop development will have an impact on crop yields. In addition, difficulty accessing agricultural inputs and reduced area planted in certain areas will contribute to a drop in grain production in October 2023 compared to average.

A sharper than average deterioration in poor households’ food consumption during the lean season is due to the difficulty in accessing food because of high staple grain prices, the deterioration in the terms of trade between goats and grains, and the precariousness of household incomes. Access to food remains average in the country's agricultural areas from average food availability and near-average income from usual income-generating activities, particularly agricultural labor, migrant remittances, and ongoing food aid, all of which help to maintain adequate food consumption. As a result, the current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity will continue until the end of September 2023. However, poor households in areas that have experienced an early depletion of stocks due to the drop in agricultural production in 2022, and those in urban centers that have atypically resorted to strategies to reduce non-food expenditures due to the overall drop in income and high grain prices, will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through the end of September 2023. From October onwards, the availability of own production, grains from in-kind payments, and the seasonal fall in prices will enable most households to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through January 2023. However, poor households in the Liptako Gourma area, insecure areas in the north, poor households in urban centers, and displaced people whose livelihoods have deteriorated will reach Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes at most.

In Liptako Gourma, households continue to face significant challenges accessing food due to the ongoing deterioration in livelihoods from residual insecurity and difficulty in implementing humanitarian food assistance. These poor households, mainly in the cercles of Bankass, Gao, Ansongo, Douentza and Koro, are unable to adequately meet their food requirements, and therefore atypically resort to reducing the volume or even the number of meals, taking out loans, selling livestock at unusual prices, selling productive assets, and seeking humanitarian aid. As a result, current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue through September 2023. In the Ménaka region, where insecurity continues to have serious repercussions, with a high number of displaced people (48.5 percent of the population) and where areas have been rendered inaccessible, households are finding it difficult to access the usual sources of income and food, as well as humanitarian aid outside the towns of Ménaka and Andéramboukane. In this region, particularly in inaccessible areas, households resort to selling productive assets, begging, selling all their livestock, or migrating all members of the household, and are faced with major discrepancies in food consumption leading to visible signs of malnutrition. As a result, the current Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity will continue through September 2023. From October onwards, the seasonal fall in prices and the improvement in mobility in the area will help improve food security and some availability of wild-harvested and main crops and animal products, albeit low compared to average, allowing households to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.