High prices limit poor households' access to adequate food

• As a result of good rainfall for normal crop development and a lull in attacks by crop pests, the agricultural season is progressing well. However, limited access to fertilizers due to low availability and prices greater than 50 percent above average will negatively affect agricultural production in some areas. 

• The purchasing power of poor households has resulted in difficulties accessing food due to increasing prices of basic food products, particularly cereals (millet, sorghum, and corn), by 40-100 percent above the five-year average. Additionally, the terms of trade between goats and cereals have deteriorated by more than 25 percent compared to the average.

• In central and northern regions,  1,413,570 people (77 percent of the target population), including 209,614 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), received food assistance between January and June 2022; this has alleviated household difficulties in accessing food.

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is present in the Liptako Gourma area and insecure parts of the north due to high food prices, the volatile security situation, and the sharp deterioration in livelihoods. The Ménaka area requires humanitarian assistance to avoid deterioration into Crisis Phase 3!. Similarly, poor households in the Western Sahel and Niger River Valley that cannot satisfy their food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical strategies will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse. Many of these areas will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity as crops become available from October 2022 to January 2023.

The rainfall: Average to significant amounts of rainfall were recorded during August across the country, lessening the deficits observed between June and July in agricultural areas. Cumulative rainfall from April 1 to August 20 is similar to or 10 to 25 percent below the 1991-2020 inter-annual average. Despite the deficits observed in many areas, the recorded rainfall amounts are generally considered sufficient for the needs of crops and are favorable for normal crop development.

Agropastoral production: Crop maintenance activities continue to provide income and food opportunities for poor households in agricultural areas. According to the Agriculture Department, the cultivated area is similar overall to last year as a result of good rainfall. However, the limited availability of fertilizers and prices more than 50 percent above average has impacted affluent households by increasing their expenses, resulting in reduced use of labor. In insecure areas of the Office du Niger in the Segou region, the central and northern regions, the area cultivated is below average because of the difficulties of accessing the fields due to insecurity. Poor access to fertilizers and the flooding of fields due to heavy rains will negatively affect the expected crop yields, mainly those dependent on fertilizers (cotton, maize, rice, and even sorghum).

Pastoral conditions: Pastoral resources are being replenished throughout the country thanks to the satisfactory recorded rainfall amounts. As a result, the physical conditions of animals and animal production (milk, butter, and meat) improved compared to the previous month; this improved the food consumption of pastoral households and the income from the sale of livestock and animal products. On the other hand, the return of animals to winter pastures was disrupted by the resurgence of terrorist attacks in the southern strip of Ménaka, Ansongo, and the Liptako Gourma area. This insecurity led to difficulties in feeding the livestock, therefore, to a decline in animal production, negatively affecting the food and income of the pastoral households. However, the animal health situation is generally calm. The vaccination campaign continues with the support of some humanitarian partners, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the FAO.

Fishing: The usual seasonal decline in fishing activities was observed due to increased river flooding. As a result, the catches and the generated revenue are below average.

Security situation: An increase in security incidents was observed in the country, particularly along the border strip with Burkina Faso and Niger. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), there were 788 incidents registered with 3,056 deaths from January to August 10, 2022, across the country, compared to 678 incidents with 1,185 deaths for the same period in 2021. These incidents caused an unusual displacement of populations and the degradation of livelihoods from theft/looting and disruption of economic activities. According to the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) report, the number of displaced persons at the end of May 2022 was estimated at 377,519 people, compared to 370,548 in April 2022, an increase of 1.9 percent, particularly in the Liptako-Gourma area and the northern regions of the country.

Market and Prices: Below-average food supplies to markets continue due to last year's overall decline in grain production, and the economic and financial sanctions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which reduced the flow of commercial products. Additionally, increased insecurity also affected production. The Ukrainian-Russian conflict which led to decreased availability and price inflation of certain food products, and a price increase in hydrocarbons. Cereal supplies, although low compared to the average, generally remain sufficient. Grain prices are stable compared to the previous month. Compared to the five-year average, staple grain prices in the regional capital markets have increased by 101 percent in Sikasso, 91 percent in Ségou, 84 percent in Koulikoro, 80 percent in Mopti, 64 percent in Kayes, 53 percent in Ménaka, 51 percent in Gao, and 47 percent in Timbuktu.

The livestock supply remains disrupted in the insecure areas, reducing flows to the major markets. Livestock prices are generally similar to or higher than the five-year average due to the recovery in the physical conditions of animals and the replenishment of pasture and watering holes. In monitored pastoral markets, the price of goats is higher than the five-year average; 46 percent in Bourem, 41 percent in Ménaka, 29 percent in Rharous, and 21 percent in Gao, Nara, and Timbuktu. However, in Mopti the prices remained stable due to a relatively steady supply of goats. As a result, the goat-to-grain terms of trade are stable overall (Figure 1) compared to June 2022 but are below the five-year average in Bourem (-4 percent), Nara (-37 percent), Rharous and Gao (-20 percent), Mopti (-45 percent), Timbuktu (-25 percent), and Ménaka (-8 percent). This increase in goat prices is improving the incomes of pastoralist households. Still, the deterioration in the goat-to-grain terms of trade is reducing the pastoralist households' access to food due to high grain prices.

Humanitarian assistance: Food assistance distribution by the government and humanitarian partners has intensified to cover the 1,841,067 people identified as food insecure during the lean season. According to the Food Security cluster, 1,413,570 people (including 209,614 IDPs) received food assistance mainly in the form of cash/coupon (95 percent) and in-kind (5 percent) from January to June 2022. At the same time, 656,657 people received livelihood support through livestock vaccination, agricultural inputs, and funds for income-generating activities. However, poor mobilization of finances by the government for its planned assistance and the difficulties in humanitarian access in insecure areas limit the impact of this assistance. Nevertheless, during the lean season, monthly humanitarian assistance in food and non-food items improved food availability and access for beneficiary households.

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

The current situation has not fundamentally affected the assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the period June 2022 to January 2023 except that insecurity is deteriorating more than expected.

• Security situation and population movement: The deterioration of the security situation observed since June in the north, central, and even southern parts of the country will continue following the advance of the terrorist group "Etat Islamique au Grand Sahara (Islamic State of the Great Sahara),” particularly in the southern strip of Ménaka and Ansongo. Furthermore, since advancing in the central region, the intensification of military operations supporting the agricultural campaign has increased the number of outbreaks of tension by Katiba Macina groups. These security incidents, marked by the planting of explosive devices and targeted assassinations, will continue to disrupt socio-economic activities and generate a steady increase in displaced populations.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2023

Poor households face above-average deterioration in their food consumption during the lean season due to difficulty accessing food because of high grain prices, declining terms of trade, and decreased income. According to the second quarter Food Consumption Score (FCS) data collected through mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (mVAM), 40.5 percent of poor households are experiencing food consumption difficulties. Thus, poor households in urban centers, the Western Sahel zone, and the Niger River Valley are unable to meet their food and non-food needs without resorting to atypical strategies such as borrowing or reducing non-food expenditures and are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from August to September 2022.

Households are experiencing an increase in security incidents in the Liptako Gourma areas with a continuous deterioration of their livelihoods. In addition, the food coping strategy index rose from crisis to high emergency, particularly in the Gao (42.3 percent) and Timbuktu (32.1 percent) regions. This translates into a drastic reduction in expenditures on food and non-food items, a reduction in the number of meals, and dependence on humanitarian assistance due to the soaring prices of staple grains. As a result, poor households in Liptako Gourma are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity that will continue through September. In the Ménaka zone, overall acute malnutrition is 17.9 percent according to the 2021 Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART), food prices are high, terms of trade are declining, and the number of IDPs continues to increase as a result of the deteriorating security situation. Thus, Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) food insecurity will continue until September 2022, in the presence of humanitarian assistance.

Beginning in September, the availability of green crops, horticulture products (wild fruits, leafy vegetables, and wild fonio), animal products (milk, cheese, and butter), and humanitarian assistance will improve household access to food and limit the use of negative coping strategies, prior to the main harvest in October. The availability of own-production and cereals will allow the majority of households to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until January 2023. However, poor households in the Liptako Gourma area, insecure areas in the north, urban centers, and displaced persons will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse, and assistance will be required the Ménaka area.