Humanitarian food distributions improve household food access

• In general, the growing season across the country is average despite poor rainfall distribution of rainfall at the beginning of the season, causing households to resort to the use of short-cycle crops. However, there are cumulative rainfall deficits in the northern reaches of the Kayes and Koulikoro regions and the Mopti, Kidal, Gao, and Timbuktu Regions, where there could be production shortfalls.

• The delay in crop and pasture development in northern Kayes and Koulikoro and northern areas of the country has limited the availability of milk and lean season foods (green maize, cowpeas, and earthpeas), which normally ease food access at this time of year. However, favorable terms of trade for pastoralists and stable cereal prices are improving household food access on local markets.

• Acute food insecurity remains at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels in agropastoral areas of the North, northern Kayes and Kouiloro, and the Dogon Pleteau of Bandiagara, due to civil insecurity and poor crop production in 2013-14. In these areas, food assistance distributions by humanitarian organizations and subsidized cereal sales are preventing a further deterioration in food security conditions.

Seasonal Progress

Rainfall has improved considerable across the country since the first week of August, after a start-of-season marred by a poor spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall. Cumulative rainfall for the period May 1-August 20 period in the Sikasso, Koulikoro, Kayes, and Gao Regions was normal to above-normal. However, there are still cumulative rainfall deficits in the Mopti Region, Nioro, Yelimané, and Diéma districts (in Kayes), Goundam, Niafounké, Diré, and Gourma Rharous districts (in Timbuktu), and Bourem district (in Gao).

In general, the growing season is making average to good progress in crop-producing areas of Sikasso, southern Kayes, and Ségou and average progress in the rest of the country. On the whole, production is up from the 2013-14 season as a result of the improvement in rainfall activity and the dry-planting of crops, except in areas with large rainfall deficits, where they are lower than last year and where crop planting activities are still underway. Due to the poor start of the rainy season, there are short to significant delays in crop development across the country, depending on the area and type of crop. In addition, there is a heavier than usual reliance on short-cycle varieties of crops in areas where crop planting activities began late. Though more limited than usual, the availability of freshly harvested green maize and early peanut crops in southern farming areas and of off-season rice crops in the Timbuktu and Gao Regions is easing household food security problems during the current lean season.  

Pastoral conditions are improving in all parts of the country. In general, there are average levels of natural vegetation, except in the northern Koulikoro and Kayes Regions and localized areas of Timbuktu and Gao, where there are moderate to severe deficits, disrupting normal herd movements. On the whole, livestock are in average to good physical condition. In general, there are average levels of milk production, though the limited milk production in pasture-deficit areas is reducing the incomes of pastoral households.

Markets and price trends

There are still adequate market supplies with the usual normal flow of cereal crops, except in certain localized areas where heavy rains are cutting off access to markets such as Nara and Nioro. Stock clearance activities have stabilized or lowered prices for millet/sorghum, the main cereals consumed by Malian households, since last month, contrary to the usual price stability or rise in prices at this time of year. Thus, prices are six percent above average in Mopti, near average in Ségou, Timbuktu, and Gao, and below average by approximately five percent in Kayes and seven percent in Koulikoro. These trends in cereal prices are maintaining household food access, particularly with the ongoing government-subsidized cereal sales in the Timbuktu, Gao, and Kayes Regions.

Livestock markets are less active at this time of year with livestock herds returning to rainy season grazing areas, tightening market supplies. The dwindling supplies with the departure of livestock herds and improvement in the physical condition of livestock has helped fuel the rise in prices since last month. Terms of trade for goats/cereals are above average by 15 percent in Nara, 25 percent in Nioro, and more than 30 percent in Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal.

Current situation in areas of concern

Food security in southern Mali is typical for the lean season, except in the Western Sahel and the Dogon Plateau area of Bandiagara, where large shortfalls in crop production and farm income during the 2013/14 season have made local populations more reliant than usual on borrowing, the consumption of leaves, and, in some cases, on cutting the size of their meals in order to meet their food needs. Though more limited than usual, the availability of lean season foods (cowpeas, green maize, and earthpeas), income from farm labor, and distributions of food assistance to over 60 percent of the district’s population are helping to ease the severity of the lean season and maintain food insecurity at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels.

Income levels from normal activities in agropastoral areas of Timbuktu and Gao are below average in the aftermath of the security crisis. Poor households are unable to meet their food needs without resorting to unusually high levels of borrowing, cutting the size of their meals, and taking on more paid work in farming activities. Due to ongoing monthly distributions of food assistance by humanitarian organizations to over 50 percent of the population, poor households will be able to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). According to an HEA

outcome analysis in June of this year, these households would have a small survival deficit without this humanitarian assistance. The same is true for poor households in pastoral areas with limited livestock capital, which with the extended lean season for pastoral populations and their weakened livelihoods, will also continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions.

The current situation has not significantly affected the assumptions formulated by FEWS NET in July in establishing the most likely scenario for July through December 2014 period.

Good climatic conditions forecast for the August to October period should allow for average to good progress in the growing season and in pastoral conditions across the country. However, the smaller areas planted in crops due to the significantly delayed start-of-season will translate into production shortfalls, which would prematurely deplete food stocks and reduce incomes from crop sales in Nioro, Diéma, and Yélimané districts and localized areas of the Timbuktu and Gao Regions. The earlier than usual depletion of food stocks and lower farm incomes in these areas could limit food access next year, but will not curtail food access during this report’s outlook period (August through December 2014).

Food security in southern agricultural areas should improve with the growing availability of fresh green crops in September and average levels of income from the normal activities of farm and non-farm laborers. The October harvests, proceeds from the sale of cash crops and market garden produce, and the expected decline in cereal prices should improve household food consumption and make further recourse to atypical coping strategies unnecessary. Thus, households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between October and December.

Continuing distributions of food assistance to over 50 percent of the population of northern agropastoral and pastoral areas of the country and the availability of wild foods and freshly harvested flood-recession crops will improve food availability for poor households between September and December. In addition, the availability of milk in September and near-average levels of wage income between October and December will help give poor households average food access on local markets and, thus, allow them to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between October and December.