Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity expected until the next harvest in September 2015

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Remote Monitoring Report
May 2015
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity expected until the next harvest in September 2015

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through September 2015
    • Key Messages

    • Generally average to above-average rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season has provided favorable conditions for the pursuit of agricultural activities, such as land preparations and the planting of rice and vegetable crops. Labor incomes from these activities are also providing poor households with income to help maintain their food access through market purchases.

    • In central and northern parts of the country, households have been worst-affected by an early depletion of household food stocks, an early start to the lean season, and below-average incomes caused by an Ebola-related economic slowdown. In these areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity is expected between now and the end of the lean season in September. 

    • In southeastern and western Liberia, the impacts of the recent Ebola outbreak on crop production and income-generating activities have been less severe. In these areas, households are expected to be able to meet essential food and non-food needs without atypical, negative coping strategies and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least September 2015.  

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    • Below-average incomes from many livelihoods activities, including agricultural labor, charcoal sales, hunting and trapping, petty trade, handicrafts, export of palm oil to neighboring countries, and casual labor work on rubber plantations.
    • Atypical decline in cross-border trade flows due to residual fears related to the Ebola epidemic.
    • Household incomes will continue to be below average, limiting purchasing power and food access for many poor households.
    Projected Outlook through September 2015

    On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared that the Ebola outbreak was over in Liberia, with forty-two days passing since the last confirmed case of Ebola within the country. Given the recent end of the outbreak, Ebola-related fears are expected to decline, favoring a slow economic recovery and improved household incomes in the coming months. These improvements are expected to help prevent deterioration in food security outcomes compared to current levels during the peak of Liberia’s lean season, which normally runs from June to August.

    Satellite-derived imagery shows that cumulative rainfall totals during the month of May were generally average to above-average across the country, with localized areas of below-average rainfall in southern areas (Figure 3). These rainfall levels have generally been favorable for a variety of ongoing agricultural activities, such as land preparations and planting activities relating to upland rice and vegetable production and the harvesting of cassava. In addition, agricultural work is currently providing many poor households with seasonal incomes.

    According to FEWS NET’s most recent SMS-based trader survey conducted in early May 2015, only 16 percent of interviewed traders reported that current rice cultivation activities in their local communities were occurring at below-average levels (Figure 4) with the highest proportion of traders reporting below-average activities in Bong, Grand Bassa, Lofa, Margibi, and Montserrado counties. However, despite reporting seasonally normal agricultural activities, only 63 percent of traders reported that current agricultural labor opportunities were available at normal or greater than normal levels (Figure 5). The highest proportion of respondents reporting reduced labor opportunities were located in Grand Cape Mount, River Gee, and Sinoe counties.1

    Seasonal forecasts from major meteorological agencies (NOAA/CPC, IRI, ECMWF, UK MET, PRESAO) are showing mixed projections for the upcoming rainy season, with certain forecasts indicating an increased probability of above-average rainfall while others showing an increased probability of below-average rains. However, even if below-average rainfall were to occur, it would not necessarily result in poor crop performance given the large amounts of rainfall that occurs over Liberia in a normal year. With this in mind, planting activities will likely continue in May and June, provide agricultural labor opportunities for poor households at average to below-average levels, despite wages being similar to previous years.

    Certain typical livelihood activities, such as cassava harvests and charcoal sales, are providing households with seasonal incomes that are helping to maintain household food access. However, incomes from other sources, such as hunting and trapping, petty trade, handicrafts, export of palm oil to neighboring countries, and casual labor work on rubber plantations still remain at below-average levels due to residual market disruptions and low household purchasing power. While the economic situation within Liberia will likely slowly improve as Ebola-related fears wane, total household incomes are expected to remain below average throughout the scenario period (May to September 2015), limiting household food access through market purchase.

    Rice imports from international markets continue at relatively normal levels maintaining food availability on local markets. In addition, the results from FEWS NET’s most recent SMS-based trader surveys indicate that 70 to 80 percent of traders reported that daily and weekly markets in their communities were open and operating normally (Table 1). This reflects a considerable improvement compared to FEWS NET’s first round of data collection on market functioning in December 2014 when only 59 percent of traders reported that weekly or daily markets were functioning normally. Recent food price data from Liberia is limited although WFP’s mVAM results from April 2015 suggest that the national averages for local and imported rice prices, as well as palm oil prices, have been relatively stable between February and April 2015.  

    In southeastern and western Liberia, regular rice imports, internal trade flows of locally-produced food commodities (ex. cassava and plantains) and the timid resumption of income-generating activities are reportedly enough to cover local food needs through September 2015. This will enable most poor households to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in any atypical, negative coping strategies in the coming months. In addition, harvests in southern Liberia will start in July/August and will help improve food access at that time. As a result, poor households in these areas are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least September 2015.

    Meanwhile, in other areas that were worst affected by the Ebola outbreak during the 2014/15 harvest period, food availability and access have been atypically limited due to food stocks that depleted one to two months earlier than normal, atypically weak household purchasing power, and residual cross-border flow disruptions. Consequently, poor and very poor households in these areas have reduced their nonfood expenditures to prioritize their own consumption and are expected to remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through at least September 2015.

     

    1 Grand Kru and River Cess were excluded due to a low number of respondents. 
    Figures Figure 1. Most likely estimated food security outcomes for May to June 2015 Figure 1. Most likely estimated food security outcomes for May to June 2015

    Source : FEWS NET

    Figure 2 Most likely estimated food security outcomes for July to September 2015 Figure 2 Most likely estimated food security outcomes for July to September 2015

    Source : FEWS NET

    Figure 3. Cumulative rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly (mm) – May 2015 Figure 3. Cumulative rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly (mm) – May 2015

    Source : USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Status of rice cultivation activities, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015 Figure 4. Status of rice cultivation activities, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015

    Source : FEWS NET SMS-based surveys

    Figure 5. Current agricultural labor opportunities compared to normal, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015 Figure 5. Current agricultural labor opportunities compared to normal, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015

    Source : FEWS NET SMS-based surveys

    Table 1. Status of daily and weekly markets, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015 Table 1. Status of daily and weekly markets, as reported by traders at the beginning of May 2015

    Source : Source: FEWS NET SMS-based surveys

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.
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