Normal lean season expected due to good start of the cropping season and stable prices

• Continued good progress of the 2014 cropping season is supporting typical livelihoods strategies for most households throughout Liberia. Though the lean season is underway in the southeast, poor households are able to have normal access to food and Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is expected through September.
• Markets are well supplied with imported rice, cassava, and plantains. Imported rice prices have remained relatively stable between April and May, which will help maintain typical food access for poor households through the remaining consumption year (June-September).

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE) shows that rainfall has continued to move westward, as is normal during the month of May. Cumulative April-May (60-day) rainfall was moderate to high throughout the country (Figure 1). In general, this has created favorable water conditions for continued planting of rice and vegetables, as well as groundnuts and cowpeas in the northeast and plantains in the east. This will also contribute to the growth and development of cassava planted in March.

According to the regional forum on climate forecasts in West Africa, near to below average seasonal rainfall is expected from June to September 2014 in the country. Given the large amounts of rainfall received by the country, FEWS NET assumes that this will be sufficient to support plant growth.

Farm activities including lowland clearing, rice transplantation, and harvesting of cassava are ongoing, improving the availability of staple foods and providing households with normal levels of income that are maintaining their access to food. Some crops like cassava, plantain, and eddo will remain available until the main rice harvest starting in October. In addition, harvests of cowpea, vegetables, and rice during the July-September period will improve food availability and households’ good access to food and income. Other typical livelihood activities, such as hunting/trapping and fishing, charcoal, sales of palm oil, and casual labor on rubber plantations are also providing households with normal levels of food and income.

Supplies of imported rice (the main staple food) and other local products, such as gari, cassava, and plantains, are at normal levels. In order stabilize rice prices across the country the Liberian government extended the withdrawal of the rice import tax in May. This will favor regular imports of rice and will help maintain stable prices for poor households through October 2014.
Ivorian refugees are more likely to remain in Liberia despite the degree of effort and the improvement in security conditions in western and southern Cote d'Ivoire mainly due to the fact that most of them will be engage in crop production activities during the rainy season. According to UNCHR, as of April 30,2014, there are still 42,026 Ivorian refugees in Liberia who will continue to be engaging in petty trade, casual labor, skilled work, and hunting. However, those residing in Grand Gedeh, Maryland, Nimba, River Gee, and Montserrado camps are less able to participate in such activities and continue to rely mostly on humanitarian assistance.

Regular and normal market supply of imported rice, normal livelihood strategies and stable prices will enable poor households to meet essential food and non-food needs through the remaining consumption year. As a result, poor households’ food security conditions will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least September 2014.