Food security outcomes expected to improve with the new rice harvest later this year

• Due to the residual effects of the Ebola outbreak on local livelihoods, household purchasing power is atypical weak in July. As a result, the majority of the poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity between now and the end of the lean season.   

• Cumulative rainfall totals in July were average to above average across the country, which is favorable for crop development. The main harvests of these crops in October will increase food availability and improve incomes for poor households. Consequently, food security outcomes to evolve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels during the October to December harvest period.

According to World Health Organization as of July 15, 2015, Liberia recorded four new Ebola cases after being declared Ebola free in May. However, there are no restrictions on population movements in place at this time, although all of the precautionary measures put in place late last year to stop the spread of EVD are still been adhered to within the country.

Humanitarian interventions by various actors (government, international organizations, NGOs, religious groups/organizations) including cash transfers and food assistance to direct and indirect victims of EVD continue. These interventions are contributing to enhanced agricultural productivity and are improving food access for beneficiary households.

Satellite-derived imagery shows that cumulative rainfall totals in July were average to above average across much of the country with some slight deficits in the south-east (Figure 3). These deficits have had no major impacts on crop production.

Looking forward, seasonal forecasts from major meteorological agencies are showing mixed results for the remainder of the season with certain models (IRI, UK MET) showing an increased probability of average to above-average rainfall while others (NOAA/CPC, ECMWF) suggest an increased likelihood of below-average rains. However, given the large amounts of precipitation that Liberia receives in a normal year, rainfall deficits would not necessarily result in poor crop performance.

According to FEWS NET’s most recent SMS-based trader survey conducted in June 2015, 82 percent of interviewed traders reported that current rice cultivation activities in their local communities were occurring at normal levels. However, despite reporting seasonally normal agricultural activities, 36 percent of respondents declared that some delays have being observed compare to a typical year.  With regards to agricultural labor, 64 percent of respondents reported that current opportunities were either similar to or higher than in a normal year.

Key informant reports indicate that other typical livelihood activities, such as cassava harvests, charcoal sales, petty trade and handicrafts, are also providing households with seasonal incomes. However, incomes from hunting and trapping, export of palm oil to neighboring countries, and casual labor work on rubber plantations in Cote d’Ivoire still remain at below-average levels due to residual market disruptions, cross-border movement restrictions, and low household purchasing power. While the economic situation within Liberia will likely continue to improve as Ebola-related fears wane, total household incomes are still expected to remain below average throughout the scenario period (May to September 2015), limiting food access through market purchase for poor households.

The results of the WFP, Government, and the Food Security Clusters’ May Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA) found that 5 percent of respondent households had a poor food consumption score and another 16 percent had a borderline food consumption score. At a sub-national level, over 20 percent of respondents had either a poor or borderline food consumption score in all counties except for Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, Lofa, Rural Monterrado, and Greater Monrovia. In addition, the reduced coping strategies index (rCSI) collected during the assessment reflected an increase in the rCSI compared to 2012 baseline levels across all counties. However, as the baseline data was collected during the harvest period, the increased rCSI levels may partially be due to seasonality.   

More recently, according to WFP mVAM survey conducted in June, the rCSI amongst this survey’s respondents increased between May and June 2015, particularly in the southeast and in Bong County. The June mVAM survey also found that food prices remained relatively stable while labor rates and wage-to-rice terms of trade were increasing over the past several months.

Due to the residual impacts of the Ebola virus on the local economy, the majority of households experienced an early depletion of food stocks, as well as atypical weak household purchasing power. To cope, affected households are currently reducing their essential nonfood expenditures and will remain in Stress (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through September 2015.

However, the new rice harvest in October will improve food availability for poor households. This, along with a normalization on typical livelihoods activities such as petty trade, handicrafts, and mining labor, will enable households to meet their minimum food and non-food needs. Therefore, all counties are projected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between October and December.