Minimal acute food insecurity is expected to continue through September

• Household rice stocks are average despite a decrease in national rice production of about 7 percent compared to the five-year average, except in southeastern counties where some decreases in production were concentrated. Although the lean season has started normally in April in the southeast, poor households throughout the country are still able to meet essential food and non-food needs through normal livelihood strategies.
• Due to normal levels and sources of food and income, in addition to stable imported rice prices on most markets, Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) is likely to be maintained through at least September 2014.

Seasonal forecasts from the first regional meeting committee by national meteorological agencies and regional institutions indicated that for March-June 2014, cumulative rainfall will be normal to below normal in Liberia. However, satellite-drived imagery shows cumulative rainfall from the first dekad (ten-day period) of March to the first dekad of April at moderate to high levels with a relatively small amount in the northwestern part of the country. These near-average rainfall conditions from March to April will allow the timely start of planting activities in May for rice and vegetables, for which land preparation activities are ongoing, as well as groundnuts and cowpeas in the northeast and plantains in the east. This situation is also favorable for cassava crops planted in March.

Typical livelihood activities, including the vegetable harvest lowlands areas and land preparation across Liberia are occurring on time and are providing households with normal levels of income during the lean season and are improving the availability of staple foods. The sale of palm oil supported by local demand and for export to neighboring countries such as Guinea is normal and is providing households with average incomes, improving their access to food. Other typical livelihood activities, such as hunting/trapping and fishing, charcoal and casual labor work on rubber plantations, are also providing households with normal levels of food and income.

In April, markets remain well supplied with imported rice. Regular rice imports and the flow of local products such as cassava and plantains in the country are reportedly enough to cover domestic food needs through the remaining 2013/2014 consumption year (April 2014-September 2014).

The lean season has normally begun in the southeastern counties despite a decrease in national rice production of about 7 percent compared to the five-year average. Household rice stocks in these areas are low, but the availability of cassava and incomes generated from normal activities is providing access to basic food needs.

According to UNCHR, the number of Ivorian refugees in Liberia has declined progressively by about 17 percent from 52,786 in January to 43,613 in April. This is mainly due to the improvement in security conditions in western and southern Cote d'Ivoire. This trend will likely continue through 2014, given continued resettlement measures by both governments to ensure a voluntary return. However, the majority of these refugees are currently living in local communities and are active in a variety of livelihood activities, including crop production, petty trade, casual labor, skilled work, and hunting. Those residing in camps are less able to participate in these types of activities and continue to rely partially on humanitarian assistance.

Household food security conditions will remain stable until the next harvest (July) due to fairly good stocks at the household level, good cassava production, and normal income-generating activities. The seasonal forecast of average to slightly below-average rainfall will suppose a normal development of the current cropping season. Coping strategies will remain normal even among poor households in some southern counties such as Grand Geddeh, River Gee, Maryland, Gran Kru and Nimba that experienced rice production deficits. As a result, households will be able to meet essential food and non-food needs and most of them are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1) through at least September 2014.