Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity expected due to normal rice import levels and stable prices

According to the World Health Organization as of November 25, 2015, Liberia experienced three new cases of Ebola during the third week of November. However, this is not expected to result in a sharp increase in new cases, due to ongoing surveillance measures. The very low level of new Ebola cases favors the continuation of seasonally normal livelihoods activities, such as harvesting and labor work, which in turn will facilitate food access for poor households.

The joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/WFP/Government mission conducted in September estimated that 2015/16 crop production would be average and above last year’s levels for rice and cassava. Continued imports of rice from international markets will also be sufficient to meet local consumption needs and will help to maintain food prices at relatively average levels through March 2016.

Weekly and daily markets are currently open and according to FEWS NET’s most recent SMS-based trader survey conducted in November 2015, more than 85 percent of respondents reported that markets are functioning normally. However, cross-border trade flows with neighboring countries generally remain at below-average levels because of continued Ebola-related fears, contributing to atypically low incomes for households engaged in this activity.

Food security conditions continue to improve with the ongoing harvest, the arrival of new crops on local markets, and increased labor and crop sale opportunities. Consequently, most households will remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least March 2016. However, some poor agricultural households or bush meat vendors, making up well below 20 percent of the total population in all zones, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to the residual effects of Ebola on their livelihoods.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook Update for October.