Key Message Update

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity expected due to normal rice import levels and stable prices

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-LR-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to the World Health Organization as of November 25, 2015, Liberia experienced three new cases of Ebola during the third week of November. However, this is not expected to result in a sharp increase in new cases, due to ongoing surveillance measures. The very low level of new Ebola cases favors the continuation of seasonally normal livelihoods activities, such as harvesting and labor work, which in turn will facilitate food access for poor households.

  • The joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/WFP/Government mission conducted in September estimated that 2015/16 crop production would be average and above last year’s levels for rice and cassava. Continued imports of rice from international markets will also be sufficient to meet local consumption needs and will help to maintain food prices at relatively average levels through March 2016.

  • Weekly and daily markets are currently open and according to FEWS NET’s most recent SMS-based trader survey conducted in November 2015, more than 85 percent of respondents reported that markets are functioning normally. However, cross-border trade flows with neighboring countries generally remain at below-average levels because of continued Ebola-related fears, contributing to atypically low incomes for households engaged in this activity.

  • Food security conditions continue to improve with the ongoing harvest, the arrival of new crops on local markets, and increased labor and crop sale opportunities. Consequently, most households will remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least March 2016. However, some poor agricultural households or bush meat vendors, making up well below 20 percent of the total population in all zones, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to the residual effects of Ebola on their livelihoods.

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook Update for October.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics