Above-average prices persist despite improved availability from harvests

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The mid-term assessment of the 2024/25 agropastoral season carried out by the PREGEC meeting in September 2024 estimates cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa (not including production in Senegal and Liberia) at 68.5 and 80 million tons, respectively, down 7 percent compared to last year and up by 9 percent compared to the five-year average (according to the low assumption). Under the high assumption, which reflects a good end to the season, cereal production could increase by 9 percent compared to the previous season and by 12 percent compared to the five-year average. However, cereal production is expected to decline in some countries, such as Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, due to rain shortfalls at the start of the season. Dry spells of more than twenty consecutive days were observed in some localities in Burkina Faso. On the pastoral front, water availability was generally satisfactory for livestock watering, but forage production was deficient in certain regions of Niger, Chad, and Mali.
Livelihoods continue to deteriorate in the Liptako-Gourma and Lake Chad Basin areas due to the persistence of the security crisis, which continues to lead to population movements despite returns of displaced people recorded in some places. In September 2024, 3,187,793 displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma (66 percent in Burkina Faso) and 6,069,325 displaced people were registered in the Lake Chad basin (73 percent in Nigeria). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements, and access to basic social services are severely disrupted in these areas. According to the IOM, this security crisis is increasingly spreading to coastal countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin), with some 144,315 displaced persons recorded in September 2024.
Prices were mostly stable or rising from August to September in the Sahel as the lean season drew to a close, while they are in seasonal decline in coastal countries where harvesting has already begun. Prices remained well above their five-year averages across the region due to factors such as below-average stocks, high demand, prolonged insecurity, macroeconomic challenges, cross-border trade restrictions, high transport costs, and recent floods. The latter, together with a further significant depreciation of the naira and higher fuel prices, have also pushed Nigeria's headline inflation back up after two months of decline. Looking ahead, seasonal price declines will prevail as the Sahel harvests begin. Nevertheless, expected production shortfalls linked to agroclimatic shocks (e.g., dry spells and floods) in several parts of the region, persistent trade restrictions, and insecurity will maintain above-average prices.
The majority of areas will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until January 2025, with some in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas affected by civil unrest will persist until January 2025, including in the West, East, and North Central regions of Niger; the Sahelo-Saharan strip and the Lake area of Chad; West and North-West Mali; the Far West, Central, and East regions of Nigeria; and the South-West, North-West, and Far North regions of Cameroon. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist in Chad, Mali, Niger, and the above-mentioned states in Nigeria. The situation will persist in the Far North, North-West, and South-West regions of Cameroon.
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will be observed in Loroum, Soum, Bam, Oudalan, and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso until January 2025. The Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in the inaccessible LGAs of Nigeria's northeastern states (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will persist until January 2025 due to very limited household food stocks, disruption of livelihoods, and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid. From June onwards, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will also persist in the Ménaka region of Mali due to deteriorating security conditions limiting access to markets and the pronounced deterioration in livelihoods.
From October 2024 through January 2025 the majority of areas will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to the availability of harvests, which will improve seasonal access to food. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will be observed in areas affected by civil unrest including Loroum, Bam, Komandjari, Seno, Soum, Yagha, Oudalan, Kompienga, and Tapoa provinces in Burkina Faso. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will be observed in the regions of Tillabéry, Tahoua, Maradi, and Diffa in Niger. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will also be observed in Ménaka in Mali (due to improved food access conditions for poor households from livestock products), in the same regions of Chad mentioned above, and in the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon. However, in Nigeria, inaccessible LGAs in the northeastern states of Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) until January 2025 due to the negative impacts on food access conditions and people's livelihoods.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. West Africa Key Message Update September 2024: Above-average prices persist despite improved availability from harvests, 2024.

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