Despite average harvests in 2021/22, market tensions could persist.

The September 2021 PREGEC meeting's assessment of the 2021/22 agropastoral season to August 31 indicates that in the Sahel and West Africa, seasonal accumulations were average to above average, with however pockets of drought lasting 10 to 15 days in June and July that had a negative impact on crop development in many parts of the region (Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Mali). According to PREGEC, cereal production in 2021/22 could be between 72 and 79 million tonnes. In view of the pockets of drought observed in September in several areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon, and updated forecasts indicating an early to normal end to the season for the Sahel and the likelihood of below-average rainfall in September and October, expected production will probably be closer to the lower limit, or even average. Lower-than-average harvests will be more marked in areas affected by insecurity and armed conflict.

Tuber harvests, which have been underway since July in the Gulf of Guinea and are continuing into September in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, are supplying Sahelian markets, in addition to locally available green crops. The average availability of surface water and pasture supports livestock feed. However, below-average pasture production is expected in Mauritania, which could lead to early transhumance and an early pastoral lean season,  in Niger in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Agadez, Maradi, Diffa and Zinder, in Mali in the central pastoral areas of Gao and Timbuktu, and in Chad in the regions of Lac, Fitri, Nokou, Barl El Gazal, Kanem, Batha East and West, and Ennedi.

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region, particularly in Liptako Gourma. As of September 28, 2021, 2,074,095 displaced people are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 70 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,232,636 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 75 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people are severely disrupted.

In August, although sufficient to meet high consumption needs, the supply of local cereals was below average in most of the region, putting pressure on demand and flows in several countries. Staple food prices remained above the five-year average, particularly in Nigeria due to below-average 2020/21 harvests and inflation. Trade restrictions in Burkina Faso and Benin have also accentuated price rises in Niger. Insecurity and conflict in the Lake Chad basin, the Liptako-Gourma region, north-western and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region and the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon continue to hamper market operations and access. Given the region's low carryover stocks and high replenishment needs, market prices could remain under pressure even with average harvests. Demand for livestock has risen considerably, particularly for small ruminants, and will continue to do so until May due to the end-of-year festivities and the upcoming Ramadan, but supply could remain below average due to trade restrictions and insecurity.

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until January 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many poor urban households struggling to recover their usual levels of income and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the north of the Centre-nord region, the provinces of Séno, Komondjari and Yatenga in Burkina Faso, and the Diffa region and extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until May 2022 thanks to food assistance in Niger, while in Burkina Faso most of these areas will move into Stress (IPC Phase 2) due to new harvests. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the Loroum, Soum, Oudalan and Yagha provinces, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the northern Tillabéry region and eastern Tahoua region of Niger, the Lake region of Chad, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria, parts of north-western and south-western Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until January 2022 In the east of Mopti in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) could improve slightly in October with the new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, Emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), which is ongoing until September in the areas most affected by the conflict in Borno State, will persist until January 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.