Despite ongoing harvests, demand remains high, keeping prices above average

The September 2021 PREGEC meeting's assessment of the 2021/22 agropastoral season as at August 31 indicates that cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa would be between 72 and 79 million tonnes, down 4 percent or stable on last year and up 6 to 12 percent on average. Tuber production would be up by 3 to 7 percent on average. Pending completion of joint country crop assessments, it is likely that the 2021/22 harvest will be average overall, due to the combined effect of pockets of drought lasting 10 to 15 days in June and July, and especially in September in several areas of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. The drop in harvests compared with the average will be more marked in areas affected by insecurity and armed conflict, particularly in Burkina Faso and Nigeria, where there are also numerous pockets of drought.

Harvests are continuing in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, improving local food supplies. The average availability of surface water and pasture is supporting livestock feed. However, low water levels in some areas and below-average pasture production could lead to early transhumance and an early pastoral lean season in Mauritania, in Niger in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Agadez, Maradi, Diffa and Zinder, in Mali in the central pastoral areas of Gao and Timbuktu, and in Chad in the Lac, Fitri, Nokou, Barl El Gazal, Kanem, Batha East and West and Ennedi regions. 

Persistent insecurity and armed conflict continue to lead to massive population movements in the region, particularly in Liptako Gourma. As of September 28, 2021, 2,074,095 displaced people are registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 70 percent of them in Burkina Faso, and 5,232,636 displaced people in the Lake Chad basin, 75 percent of them in Nigeria (IOM). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services for most of these displaced people have been severely disrupted. 

Market supplies are gradually increasing with the start of the harvest, but are still below average in large parts of the region. Although seasonally lower, demand remained above average due to increased stock replenishment and lower trade flows. Despite easing or falling compared with the previous month, staple food prices remained above the five-year average, particularly in Nigeria. Conflict-related market disruptions were reported in parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. Although supplies will be sufficient to cover demand throughout the marketing year, prices are likely to be higher than average due to greater stock replenishment, expected production cuts in some countries and higher international import costs. 

The majority of areas will remain Minimally Food Insecure (IPC Phase 1) until January 2022, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many poor urban households struggling to recover their usual levels of income and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the northern part of the Centre-Nord region, the provinces of Séno, Komondjari and Yatenga in Burkina Faso, the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, Stress!  (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until January 2022 thanks to food assistance in Niger, while in Burkina Faso most of these areas will move into Stress (IPC Phase 2) due to new harvests. However, in Burkina Faso, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the Loroum, Soum, Oudalan and Yagha provinces, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to persistent insecurity and insufficient harvests. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently prevailing in the northern Tillabéry region and eastern Tahoua region of Niger, the Lake region of Chad, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria, parts of north-western and south-western Cameroon and the Central African Republic due to persistent conflict, will persist until January 2022 In the east of Mopti in Mali and the far north of Cameroon, also affected by conflict and low production, the ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) could improve slightly in October with the new harvests, enabling households to move into Stress (IPC Phase 2). In Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4), which is ongoing until September in the areas most affected by the conflict in Borno State, will persist until January 2022. In this country, food security conditions remain worrying for IDPs in both the northeast and the northwest, where access to food and income is very limited, in addition to reduced humanitarian access.