Despite expected good harvests, most households displaced by conflict will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)

The assessment of the 2020/21 agropastoral season by the September PREGEC meeting indicates above-average harvests of 4 to 10 percent for cereals and tubers, and could reach over 10 percent for oilseeds. However, below-average harvests are expected in the insecure/conflict zones of Liptako Gourma, the Lake Chad Basin, North-Western and North-Central Nigeria, North-Western and South-Western Cameroon, due to reduced planted areas. In Nigeria, these declines are further accentuated by the impact of COVID-19 on access to agricultural inputs and labor, and crop flooding.

Pasture production is satisfactory in the region, but access to it remains limited in insecure areas.  Good water availability could support the intensification of dry-season crops by households, leading to above-average production. However, this activity will be reduced in insecure/conflict zones and for certain households hard hit by the loss of income caused by the COVID-19 crisis, particularly during the marketing period between February and April 2020. The region continues to record a significant drop in new COVID-19 infections, but land borders remain closed to travelers.

New harvests improve household stocks and increase market supplies. Cereal prices remain close to average, or higher in some places (as in the Chadian Sahel), but they will experience their seasonal downturn, albeit with a small amplitude, as atypically high stock replenishments are expected from traders and institutions. Prices will be higher than the previous year throughout the Sahel, and above average in deficit and/or conflict zones (Great Lake Chad Basin, Liptako Gourma region, and Tibesti region in Chad) and in non-XOF coastal countries, where local and imported rice prices have remained well above average, exacerbated by currency depreciation. The livestock trade remains generally disrupted by movement restrictions linked to COVID-19 and insecurity/conflict in certain pastoral areas, but could see an improvement with the increase in demand for the end-of-year festivities.

The majority of areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until January 2021 and Stress (IPC Phase 2) for some, including many urban households hard hit by the COVID-19 restrictions due to the reduction in the implementation of usual means of subsistence, leading to a drop in income and purchasing power. In areas affected by civil insecurity, such as the center and north of the region of, the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger, in the Loroum, Soum and Sanmatenga provinces in Burkina Faso, and in the Lake region of Chad, the Stress ! (IPC Phase 2 !) will remain until January 2021, thanks to planned food assistance.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will prevail until January 2021 among certain displaced households in Burkina Faso's Bam, Namentenga, Séno, Oudalan, Yagha, Gnagna and Komondjari provinces, in the Central African Republic, and in Mali's Liptako-Gourma region, in the Lake area of Chad, the Tillabéry region and north of Tahoua in Niger, in north-western and north-eastern Nigeria and in the north-western and south-western regions of Cameroon, due to the persistence of conflict and the consequent destruction of livelihoods. In Nigeria, IDPs in camps located in inaccessible areas near the Lake Chad Basin are likely to be in Emergency Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 4), where access to food and income is very limited.