Key Message Update

Ongoing harvests are improving food availability

October 2019

September 2019

Maps of Most Probable Estimated Food Security Outcomes, June to September 2019: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the region. Stress (Phase 2 of the CPI) in eastern Mali, southern Niger, northern Nigeria, and southern Chad. Crisis (Phase 3 of the CPI) in Tillaberi Niger, Tibesti Chad, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Central African Republic. Emergency (Phase 4 of the IPC) in northeastern Nigeria.

October 2019 - January 2020

Maps of Most Probable Estimated Food Security Outcomes, October 2019 to January 2020 : Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the region. Stress (Phase 2 of the CPI) in northern Nigeria. Crisis (Phase 3 of the CPI) in Tillaberi Niger, Tibesti Chad, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Central African Republic. Emergency (Phase 4 of the IPC) in northeastern Nigeria.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The harvests that began in September and are continuing in October are improving household food availability. The last PREGEC meeting held in Accra in September 2019 forecasts 2019/20 harvests that are generally average or even higher than the average by 12 to 20 percent. However, in areas affected by insecurity and conflict in the Liptako-Gourma region, production is reported to be below average. Pasture availability is generally satisfactory, but is considered fair in some parts of the Sahel and more worrying in western Mauritania and northern Senegal for a third consecutive year. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the Greater Lake Chad Basin, livestock movements and access to fodder resources continue to be significantly hampered by insecurity.

     

  • Main markets remain well supplied with commodities. The atypical decline in prices compared to last year and the average observed during the lean season continues. On the other hand, price increases have been observed in conflict areas. Also, above-average prices of local and imported rice persist in coastal countries. The closure of Nigeria's land borders to combat smuggling and banditry has a negative impact on trade, reducing the supply of imported rice and further increasing prices. With ongoing harvests, supply will increase and prices will be below average throughout the harvest and post-harvest periods.

     

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until December 2019 while some will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, continued insecurity in northern Burkina Faso, central and northern Mali, western Niger, north-western Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin will continue to increase the number of internally displaced persons and refugees. Despite the continued deterioration of livelihoods, humanitarian aid will help to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in these areas for host, internally displaced, and refugee households.

     

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity continue to prevail in the Tillabéry region of Niger, the Tibesti region of Chad, the Soum province and surrounding areas of Burkina Faso, eastern CAR and the English-speaking regions of Cameroon due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods and severely reduce the distribution of humanitarian aid. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and remain food insecure. Crisis (IPC Phase3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will remain, particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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