Good harvest prospects are expected to improve food security except in conflict areas

The end of season rainfall through the end of September in most of the region and in early October in some areas bodes well for at least average harvests across the region, although damages may be observed in some mature crops such as cowpeas. The pastoral situation has improved considerably thanks to the good development of pastures and the replenishment of water points. Animal body conditions are satisfactory which has improved their market value.

Market supplies remain satisfactory thanks to the coastal country harvests that began in July, the destocking by traders in view of the current good agricultural season and regular imports. In addition, in the Sahel, the availability of green crops from households and various humanitarian assistance programs have contributed to stability or a slight drop in prices compared to the previous month, even though they remain above average. Markets remain disrupted in the Lake Chad basin, northern and central Mali and the Liptako-Gourma region due to insecurity.

Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until January 2019. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue to affect Mauritania's middle western region until October due to strains on livelihoods following several years of agricultural and pastoral production deficits, and declining incomes negatively affecting poor households' consumption.

The same will be true in the Diffa region of Niger as a result of the Boko Haram conflict and in CAR as a result of the armed conflict. This situation could also affect the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon if the security situation worsens.  Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!), while those who do not have access to assistance are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food insecurity situation could be similar or worse.